长江流域国土空间开发适宜性综合评价

国土空间开发适宜性评价是国土开发格局优化与区域协调发展的科学基础,开展长江 流域国土空间综合评价,可以加强和深化对流域国土空间合理开发的科学认知,指导流域治 理与可持续发展实践。根据“3步骤4原则”首次界定长江流域覆盖的县级行政区域范围,从 长江流域实际出发,采用Delphi与AHP方法,构建国土空间开发适宜性综合评价指标体系, 建立以724个县级行政区为基本单元的长江流域综合数据库。在此基础上,结合专业知识与 GIS 空间聚类方法进行单因子分级评价,运用动态加权求和法建立测度模型开展综合评价,构 建耦合差系数模型进行人口-经济空间耦合度分析。研究结果表明：全流域开发约束总体水 平较高,高值区 (V~VIII级) 主要分布在上中游地区。开发强度和开发潜力的空间集中度高, 区域发展差异呈继续扩大态势。综合评价分级高值区土地面积比重为22.95%,表明适宜开发 区域仅占少部分流域国土面积；人口-GDP耦合差系数 (D值) 为8.70,流域人口与经济空间 耦合度较低；上中下游开发适宜性存在显著差异,适宜性高值区主要包括长江三角洲、合肥 与皖江沿线地区、武汉城市圈、荆州-宜昌长江沿线地区、襄阳-南阳地区、长株潭城市 群、南昌-九江-新余地区、成渝城市群、贵阳-安顺地区、昆明市及大部分地级城市。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Land Spatial Development Suitability of the Yangtze River Basin

The evaluation of land spatial development suitability is the scientific foundation of spatial pattern optimization and regional coordinated development. So, the comprehensive evaluation of land spatial development suitability in the Yangtze River Basin can strengthen and deepen the understanding of land reasonable development of river basin and guide the river basin government and the sustainable development practice. According to "Three Steps and Four Principles", the county-level administrative area of the Yangtze River Basin is firstly defined, which includes 724 counties. Using the Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods, the comprehensive evaluation index system and index weight coefficient are established. Furthermore, the single index evaluation and composite index evaluation are analyzed by using GIS spatial clustering method and dynamic weighted summation method, and population-economic spatial coupling degree is calculated by constructing coupling difference coefficient model. The results show that: the overall level of development constraint of the Yangtze River Basin is relatively high, high-value regions (Ⅴ to Ⅷ level) are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. The spatial concentration degrees of development intensity and development potential are high, and the regional development gap is widening. The area of high value regions of comprehensive evaluation accounts for 22.95% of the total basin area, indicating that the suitable development area is in a minority of Yangtze River Basin area. The coupling difference coefficient between population and economy is 8.70, and the spatial coupling degree between population and economy is low. The variation of land spatial suitability is significant among the upper, middle reaches and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The high value regions include the Yangtze River Delta region, Hefei city and City Cluster along the Wanjiang River in Anhui Province, City Cluster of Wuhan and Jingzhou-Yichang region, Xiangyang-Nanyang region, City Cluster of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Nanchang-Jiujiang-Xinyu region, City Cluster of Chengdu-Chongqing, Guiyang-Anshun region, Kunming city, and most of prefecture-level cities.