近20年来厦门市滩涂养殖时空演变与政策驱动分析

沿海滩涂是一种重要的湿地资源,也是一种重要的可再生的后备土地资源。在滨海城市,滩涂养殖的时空演变过程能敏感反映产业经济发展、生态环境变化及政策导向三个因素之间的博弈关系。对此,利用1986、1989、1993、1997年TM遥感影像和2001、2003年ETM+遥感影像以及2004年SPOT遥感影像,用单一土地利用动态度、景观破碎度和重心迁移模型,对近20年来厦门市滩涂养殖的时空演变过程进行了分析。结果表明:滩涂养殖面积从1986年的2661.85hm²持续增长到2003年的9776.45hm²,增长了2.67倍,2004年则开始下降到9510.98hm²,在此期间面积的年均变化率从1986～1989年的19.80%逐渐下降到2003～2004年的-2.72%;1986～2004年养殖区的景观破碎度均小于0.00080;空间分布重心总体上向东北方向迁移。对政策驱动机制的初步研究表明,养殖区的这种变化过程与当地的一系列政策措施存在着宏观响应关系。

The Analysis on Spatial-temporal Evolution of Beach Cultivation and Its Policy Driving in Xiamen in Recent Two Decades

The beach is an important wetland resource and renewable reserve land resource.The spatial-temporal evolution of beach cultivation can sensitively reflect the gambling relationship among the industrial economic development,the eco-environmental change and the policy guide in the seaside city.Through interpretation,analysis and statistic to the four temporal TM remote sensing images in 1986,1989,1993 and 1997 and the two temporal ETM remote sensing images in 2001 and 2003 as well as the SPOT remote sensing image in 2004,the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of beach cultivation are analyzed with the single land use dynamic index,landscape fragmentation and the model on changes of gravity center in Xiamen in recent two decades.The results indicate that:the area of beach cultivation had increased continuously from 2 661.85 hm2 in 1986 to 9 776.45 hm2 in 2003,more than 2.67 times,and then it started to drop to 9 510.98 hm2 in 2004,and the average annual rate of change had gradually dropped from 19.80% during 1986 to 1989 to-2.72% during 2003 to 2004;landscape fragmentation was all smaller than 0.00080 during 1986 to 2004;and the gravity center of beach cultivation had moved northeast on the whole.The preliminary study on the policy driving mechanism about the spatial-temporal evolution of beach cultivation suggests that,there is a macroscopic response relationship between this kind of evolution pattern of beach cultivation and a series of the local policies and measures.