铁路客运专线路基沉降预测的新方法

路基的工后沉降控制是高速铁路建设的重要问题之一，利用铁路客运专线路基现场观测数据，找出相应的路基沉降规律有利于指导设计与施工。在分析武广铁路客运专线路基大量数据的基础上，将三点法的基本思想引入到双曲线模型，建立了基于双曲线模型的三点法。其具体做法是：在实测沉降曲线上选取3个适当的点作为预测样本，代入双曲线模型进行预测。为了检验新方法，运用常用的双曲线方法、三点法、Asaoka法、星野法、泊松曲线法进行对比分析，并且提出了新方法的取点控制条件。研究表明：基于双曲线模型的三点法的预测误差小、相关系数高、与实测数据吻合较好，具有一定的实用价值，为铁路客运专线无砟轨道铺设的沉降预测问题提供了参考。

New method for forecasting subgrade settlement of railway passenger dedicated line

The control of post-construction settlement of subgrade is one of the key problems of railway passenger dedicated line construction; therefore, it is beneficial to design and construction that using the field observation data of railway passenger dedicated line subgrade to find the corresponding settlement laws. The thought of three-point method is introduced into hyperbola model based on analyzing mass data of some high-speed railway subgrade; a three-point method based on hyperbola model for subgrade settlement prediction has been proposed. The concrete method is that three suitable points of the measured settlement curve taken as forecast sample are substituted in hyperbola model to forecast the settlement. The common forecast methods such as hyperbola method, three-point method, Asaoka method, Hushino method and Poisson curve method are used as comparison to check the new method. The research results show that the model of hyperbola based on three-point method agrees better with the measured data, with small errors and high correlated coefficient, so as to provide references for the settlement prediction of laying ballastless track of railway passenger dedicated line.