气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估

以南水北调中线工程典型流域汉江上游流域和滦河流域为研究对象，采用敏感性分析法、降水?径流双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法定量评估了气候波动和人类活动对流域径流变化的影响。结果表明：汉江上游流域和滦河流域变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期年均径流深相对于基准期分别减少了29.5% / 19.1%和49.8% / 70.0%；对于汉江上游流域，1991-1999年（变异Ⅰ期）气候波动是径流减少的主要影响因素，2000-2008年（变异Ⅱ期）人类活动则是径流减少的主要影响因素，且人类活动对汉江上游流域径流减少的影响逐步增加；对于滦河流域，1980-2010年（变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期）人类活动一直是径流减少的主要影响因素，且气候波动和人类活动对径流减少的影响贡献率基本保持不变。

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff Change in the Typical Basin of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the upper Hanjing River basin and Luanhe River basin, two typical basins of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, were investigated with 8 approaches. These are the sensitivity-based approaches (including six Budyko framework based models), precipitation-runoff double mass curves and comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity. The results show that, compared with the baseline period, the average annual runoff in the variation period I/II decreased by 29.5% / 19.1% and 49.8% / 70.0% for the upper Hanjing River basin and Luanhe River basin, respectively. For the upper Hanjiang River basin, climate variability was the main influence factor of runoff reduction in 1991-1999 but human activities was the main influence factor for the period of 2000-2008. The contribution rates of climate variability on runoff reduction became weaker while the contribution rates of human activities on runoff reduction became stronger during the variation period. For Luanhe River basin, human activities was the main influence factor of runoff reduction for the period of 1980-2010, and the contribution rates on runoff reduction by climate variability and human activities almost remained unchanged during the variation period.