高填方边坡失稳时间预测的实用模型

建立一种准确可靠的方法来预测高填方边坡因蠕变破坏而发生滑坡的时间是困难的，但对防止财产和生命损失又至关重要。在总结高填方土质边坡蠕变破坏过程中的位移、速度特征的基础上，通过改进Saito模型的应变率公式，提出了基于改进人工蜂群算法的滑坡中短期预测的实用模型。将进入加速变形阶段后的滑坡位移时间序列作为输入，通过人工蜂群算法反演实用模型参数后输出预测的滑坡时间。以3个高填方滑坡为实例，应用滑坡位移监测点的测量数据，验证了该方法在滑坡时间预测上的准确性和可靠性。同时，将该方法预测的滑坡时间结果与传统的Saito系列模型预测的滑坡时间结果进行了比较。结果表明，在通过滑坡位移的时间序列进行滑坡时间预测时，所提出的实用模型比两种Saito模型更准确可靠。

A practical model for predicting the failure time of high fill slope

To prevent the loss of properties and human lives, it is of great significance to establish an accurate and reliable model for predicting the landslide time of high fill slope. On the basis of the summary of the displacement and velocity characteristics during the creep failure process of high fill slope, this paper proposes a practical model for predicting the medium and short-term landslide. The proposed model is based on the improved artificial bee colony algorithm by modifying the strain rate formula of Saito model. The time series of landslide displacement after entering the accelerated deformation stage are taken as the input, and then the predicted landslide time is obtained by inverting the practical model parameters through the artificial bee colony algorithm. Three cases of high fill slope landslides are taken as examples, and the accuracy and reliability of the practical model are verified by the displacement data of the monitoring points. Meanwhile, the results of landslide time predicted by this model are compared with those predicted by the traditional Saito series model. The results show that the practical model is more accurate and reliable than the two general Saito models in predicting the landslide time through the time series of landslide displacement.