周期最大值法在设计潮位中的应用探讨

根据黄浦江百余年潮位资料分析,存在较显著的准周期性,从而提出周期最大值法。首先通过周期分析,选择基本周期步长;然后由周期单元取样,按照周期最大值的随机性,结合历史调查特大值,进行频率分析。因此,这些极值变量,均是近于或属于严重风暴潮条件,则外延稀遇频率的设计潮位成果,较为合理可靠,可供大中型水利水电工程设计研究参考。

Preliminary Study for Design Tidal Level with Periodical Maximum Method

In accordance with the analysis on the tidal level records more than100years in Huangpu River,there exist an obvious quasi-period cyclic.The Periodical Maximum Method therefore is approached.At the first,selecting basic cycling step length on the basis of periodic analysis,then,sampling with the period unit to carry out frequency analysis according to the random property of periodic maximum values,and by combining with the investigated historical extreme values.Since the extreme variables are all near or belongs to the heavy storm surge conditions,the extended rare occurrence frequency result,which is reasonable and reliable,can be used as the study reference for the design of large or middle hydro projects.