咸潮入侵理论预报模式的分析及其在西江三角洲的应用

基于不同要求的咸潮入侵理论模式较多。本文在河道地形概化的基础上, 综合考虑流量、潮汐、盐淡水混合类型及地形等因子, 建立起一个可以快速预报各水道日最大氯度及咸潮最大影响范围的模式, 并用于西江三角洲咸潮入侵的模拟和预报。结果表明, 模式可以很好地模拟西江三角洲各水道日最大氯度及咸潮入侵范围, 预报结果良好, 同时该模式也能较好地预报磨刀门水道剧烈的地形变化及其它要素，如流量、潮汐对咸潮活动的影响程度。今后仍需更多的实测资料或数学模型对其他因子进行更深入的定量化研究, 用来修正该预报模式, 以进一步提高模式的精度及可预报性。

Analysis of a model for saline water intrusion and its application in the West River Delta

Based on topographic summary of estuaries and taken into account of many factors including river discharge, tide, channel topography and mixing type between saline water and fresh water, a fast prediction model for daily maximum chlorinity and maximum distance of saline water intrusion was set up and used to simulate and predict the saline water intrusion in the West River Delta. The results show that the model can be used to simulate daily maximum chlorinity and maximum distance of saline water intrusion in the channels in the West River Delta. In addition, the model can predict the degree of effects of topographic variation and other environmental factors such as river discharge and tide on the saline water intrusion. More actual data or parameterizations are needed to further quantify other factors to amend the model, hence to improve the accuracy and prediction of the model.