基于灰色关联度理论的苏锡常地裂缝危险性评价

苏锡常地区是我国地裂缝地质灾害重灾区之一，给当地群众的生产生活造成了巨大的经济损失。利用灰色关联度理论对苏锡常地区地裂缝进行了分析。通过分析苏锡常地区地裂缝形成条件，选取基岩埋深、基岩面起伏度、第Ⅱ承压含水层厚度、黏性土层厚度、主采层水位埋深、地面沉降梯度作为影响因子指标，计算了各个影响因子的关联程度和影响权重，对整个苏锡常地区地裂缝进行危险性分区。根据区划结果，划分出地裂缝的安全区、过渡区、较危险区以及危险区。通过灰色关联度理论对苏锡常地裂缝分析，达到了对该区地裂缝发育影响因素量化的目的，为地裂缝灾害防治工作提供一定的理论依据。 

Grey relational grade theory-based risk assessment of ground fissures in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area

Su-xi-chang area is one of severe ground fissure areas in China, has caused great economic losses to the production and living of the local residents. The grey relational grade theory was used to analyze the ground fissures in the area. Based on the analysis of the formation conditions of the ground fissures in the area, six impact factors were selected:the depth of the bedrock, the roughness of bedrock surface, the thickness of the second confined aquifer, the thickness of clay soil, the depth of ground water level below the ground surface and the gradient of land subsidence. Then, the correlation degree and influence weight of each impact factor were calculated, and the dangerous extent of the ground fissures was evaluated in the subareas of the Suxichang area accordingly. The entire study area was divided into the safe, transitive, more dangerous, and the most dangerous subareas of the ground fissures. The quantification of the factors affecting the development of ground fissures in Su-xi-chang area was studied through the grey relational grade theory, which provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of ground fissure disasters.