近20年来昆明市城市化进程对城市热岛效应的影响研究

近年来,城市化对城市气温影响是气候变暖研究中备受关注的问题之一。利用1987~2006年昆明及周围3个站点的气象数据分析城区和周围站点的气温变化差异,给出城市和郊区在不同年份、不同季节城市化影响下的气温变化趋势。研究发现:近20年来,城区年平均温度为15.7℃,郊区为14.9℃,受城市化的影响,昆明市城区热岛效应一直呈现增幅的趋势,其中在冬季热岛强度最大且增幅为0.399℃/10 a,而热岛强度最小的是夏季,UHI最高气温增幅为0.29℃/10 a,UHI最低气温增幅为0.56℃/10 a。在此基础上结合昆明城区的城市发展资料,运用熵值法、主成分分析方法探讨了城市发展对年热岛强度的影响,结果表明在不同时段影响因素不同,1987~1994年主要因素是建成区面积和人均GDP,而1995~2006年则是人均GDP和城镇人口。

THE RESEARCH OF CITY HOT ISLAND EFFECT ON KUNMING'S URBANIZATION PROCESS IN THE RECENT 20-YEAR

In recent years,the research on how the urbanization affects the climate changes to the global is one of the highlights.This paper is analyzing the temperature change of Kunming and other three experimental stations,according to their meteorological data during in 1987 to 2006.And it gives the temperature change tendency of the city and the suburb areas in the different year,the different season from the urbanization＇s influence.The research suggest that,the city＇s average temperature yearly is 15.7 ℃,and for the suburb area is 14.9 ℃.On the effects of urbanization in the last 20 years,temperature of Kunming was keeping the tendency to increase,in which the biggest is 0.399 ℃/10 a in the winter.However,the hot island intensity in the summer is the smallest,the temperature increased range of highest UHI is 0.29 ℃/10 a,the lowest UHI is 0.56℃/10a.On this base,with the developmental data of Kunming city,we are using the entropy value law and the principal components analysis method has discussed the urban development to the influence of hot island intensity yearly.The conclusion indicates that the factors which can affect it are different in the different period.Take the year from 1987 to 1994 for example,the primary factor is the built-up district and the average GDP per person,but the years from 1995 to 2006 is average GDP per person and the urban population.