Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

Is Precipitation the Dominant Controlling Factor of High Inorganic Nitrogen Content in the Changjiang River and Its Mouth？

The main reasons for the high content of inorganic N and its increase by several times in the Changjiang River and its mouth during the last 40 years were analysed in this work. The inorganic N in precipitation in the Changjiang River catchment mainly comes from gaseous loss of fertilizer N, N resulting from the increases of population and livestock, and from high temperature combustions of fossil fuels. N from precipitation is the first N source in the Changjiang River water and the only direct cause of high content of inorganic N in the Changjiang River and its mouth. The lost N in gaseous form and from agriculture non-point sources fertilizer comprised about 60% of annual consumption of fertilizer N in the Changjiang River catchment and were key factors controlling the high content of inorganic N in the Changjiang River mouth. The fate of the N in precipitation and other N sources in the Changjiang River catchment are also discussed in this paper.     

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

9711号北上台风演变及暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析

通过对 971 1号台风登陆北上穿过山东造成山东特大暴雨过程的湿位涡的分析 ,并从湿位涡的角度研究了台风演变及山东特大暴雨的形成机制 ,揭示了冷空气在台风演变及暴雨过程中的重要作用。结果表明 :倾斜涡度发展是暴雨产生和台风加强的重要机制之一 ,暴雨产生在 θe线陡立密集区内 ;湿位涡在这次暴雨过程中对流层低层具有 MPV1 <0 ,MPV2 >0的特征 ,此次暴雨产生在负的MPV1等值线密集区中 ;对流层上部及平流层下部高位涡的下传使得低层斜压性增大 ,引起低层的对流稳定度减小 ,促使气旋性涡度发展 ,有利于位势不稳定能量的释放 ,使得暴雨增幅 ,导致台风的加强并演变为温带气旋。     

0102号台风"飞燕"移动路径特点的分析

2001年2号台风“飞燕”登陆早、强度大、移速快、突发性强给福建中部沿海地区带来巨大损失。本文利用常规资料及云图等资料对其登陆福建及后期路径北折的特点及成因进行分析，结果表明：200hPa散度、850hPa涡度及低层能量场对台风路径北折有比较好的预示作用，台风未来移向有沿着200hPa其中心附近辐散中心长轴方向、850hPa正涡度长轴方向及低层暖平流区和850hPa θse高能中心轴移动的趋势。     

远区台风“三巴”对长江口波浪动力场的作用机制

针对远区台风对河口波浪动力场的影响问题,利用第三代波浪模式SWAN计算了远区台风"三巴"期间长江口波浪动力场分布,分析了陆架至河口区的波浪能量耗散和波致泥沙侵蚀的时空分布,发现波浪由外海向近岸传播过程中,波-波相互作用导致能量由高频向低频转换,周期和波长逐渐增大,近底层轨道流速增大,能量密度增高;阐明白帽破碎是维持深水区波浪能量平衡和限制波高成长的主要机制,底摩擦耗能和水深诱导的破碎耗能是长江口横沙东滩和崇明东滩邻近海域波高衰减的主要原因;提出波浪产生的底部切应力与相对水深有关,当波浪传播到浅水区时,波长和周期越大,波浪切应力越大。研究揭示了与河口相距数百公里的远区台风能够对长江口波浪动力场产生明显影响,河口水下三角洲前缘是最容易受到波浪侵蚀的区域,研究成果弥补了目前关于陆架远区台风对河口波浪动力场影响研究的不足,对深化认识远区台风对长江口动力环境、地貌演变、航运安全和滩涂保护等有重要科学意义。     

0010号台风"碧利斯"对厦门港湾表层海水中溶解无机砷含量的影响

本文研究了0010号台风“碧利斯”影响期间及其随后的恢复期中,厦门港湾中九龙江口和西港海域站表层海水总溶解砷（TDIAs)、As^3 含量和As^3 /As^5 值的变化特征。结果表明,观测期间两站TDIAs和As^5 含量均比非台风时期呈数倍增加,经10d后仍未恢复到非台风时的水平。As^3 含量也有较大幅度的增加,但波动较大。文中还对观测期间影响溶解无机砷含量的因素进行了初步的探讨。