基于树轮宽度的太白山地区春季干湿变化重建

秦岭为我国气候分界线和南水北调中线重要水源地,太白山为其最高峰,了解太白山区域的过去干湿变化特征对气候变化机制研究和未来水资源持续利用具有重要意义。基于秦岭太白山地区太白红杉树木年轮资料及其附近的宝鸡、眉县气象站1959—2016年气象数据进行分析,重建了1852—2016年春季（3~5月）SPEI值,分析了近165 a太白山春季干湿变化特征及其与大尺度环流变化关系。结果表明：（1） 太白山地区太白红杉径向生长主要受春季气候限制;与春季SPEI值相关性最高,达到–0.72（P<0.01）,重建方程方差解释量为51.8%（调整自由度后为51.0%）。（2） 重建结果表明,近165 a来,有29 a春季为湿润年份,有23 a春季为干旱年份,分别占比为17.58%和13.94%。极端干旱年份为1892年、1929年、1945年和2006年,极端湿润年份为1881年、1921年和1990年,其中1892年（–1.73）和1881年（1.53）分别为最干旱和最湿润的年份。（3） 重建结果得到了周边地区干湿变化重建结果和历史文献灾害记载的验证;太白山地区干湿变化可以准确表征大区域干湿变化且存在2.5 a、3.1 a、3.8 a和8.4 a周期变化。太白山地区SPEI与赤道东太平洋海面温度成负相关以及与赤道西太平洋海面温度呈正相关,其干湿变化可能与ENSO活动有关。     

霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)灌木年轮记录的1902—2015年阿拉善荒漠中部气候干湿变化

基于阿拉善荒漠中部的4个霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)样点建立的区域轮宽年表,探讨了霸王径向生长对气候变化的响应及阿拉善荒漠中部区域1902—2015年的干湿变化。结果表明:霸王的径向生长主要受到生长季及前期降水(当年4—7月和前一年10—12月降水)影响。年代际尺度上,区域年表共记录了1920s初—1930s初、1940s初以及1970s末—1980s末3个干旱时段和1900s末—1920s初、1930s、1960s中—1970s中以及1980s末—至今4个湿润时段。区域气候干湿变化以2~8、11、16~32a周期最为明显,在1970s末发生了周期性震荡。本研究所揭示的区域百余年来气候干湿变化波动状况,可为区域环境演变和荒漠化防治提供气候背景代用资料和决策依据。     

Summer climate and conifer growth in mid-Norway: Chronologies from ancient construction timber compared with historical data

A tree-ring chronology derived from Norwegian timber structures made from Scots pine at locations near Trondheim dates back to AD 552. A chronology based on Norway spruce building timber from the same area has been constructed back to AD 1351. Both Trondheim chronologies, when tested for climatic signals, show a year-to-year pattern that correlates with the annual variation in the May–August tetratherm from Trondheim dating back to 1870. Particular years in both these chronologies show correspondence with historical notes about the summer weather and harvests from 1575 until the mid-19th century. Especially cold summers resulted in unripe harvests and narrow tree-rings in both chronologies. However, several exceptions suggest that the growth of conifers and harvests sometimes responded differently to the same environmental factors (or more than one factor was important). The spruce chronology does not show reported long-term (decadal, century) climatic trends, probably because many samples had too few tree-rings. The pine chronology also shows little correspondence with longer-term fluctuations, probably because of heterogeneous material and/or too few samples. However, generally narrow ring widths from 1570 to the early 18th century may reflect a cold period. The data are promising, but results suggest that more samples and possibly more powerful statistics are required to extract reliable climatic signals from building timber chronologies.     

The Little Ice Age in the Canadian Rockies

This paper reviews the evidence and history of glacier fluctuations during the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Canadian Rockies. Episodes of synchronous glacier advance occurred in the 12th–13th, early 18th and throughout the 19th centuries. Regional ice cover was probably greatest in the mid-19th century, although in places the early 18th century advance was more extensive. Glaciers have lost over 25% of their area in the 20th century. Selective preservation of the glacier record furnishes an incomplete chronology of events through the 14th–17th centuries. In contrast, varve sequences provide continuous, annually resolved records of sediments for at least the last millennium in some highly glacierized catchments. Such records have been used to infer glacier fluctuations. Evaluation of recent proxy climate reconstructions derived from tree-rings provides independent evidence of climate fluctuations over the last millennium. Most regional glacier advances follow periods of reduced summer temperatures, reconstructed from tree rings particularly ca. 1190–1250, 1280–1340, 1690s and the 1800s. Reconstructed periods of higher precipitation at Banff, Alberta since 1500 are 1515–1550, 1585–1610, 1660–1680 and the 1880s. Glacier advances in the early 1700s, the late 1800s and, in places, the 1950–1970s reflect both increased precipitation and reduced summer temperatures. Negative glacier mass balances from 1976 to 1995 were caused by decreased winter balances. The glacier fluctuation record does not contain a simple climate signal: it is a complex response to several interacting factors that operate at different timescales. Evaluation of climate proxies over the last millennium indicates continuous variability at several superimposed timescales, dominated by decade–century patterns. Only the 19th century shows a long interval of sustained cold summers. This suggests that simplistic concepts of climate over this period should be abandoned and replaced with more realistic records based on continuous proxy data series. The use of the term LIA should be restricted to describing a period of extended glacier cover rather than being used to define a period with specific climate conditions.     

利用树轮重建秦岭地区历史时期 初春温度变化

采用树木年轮气候学方法,利用秦岭地区树轮长年表资料重建秦岭地区历史时期初春温度,表明各气象站点重建序列与器测序列均呈显著的正相关关系,其中重建序列与实测记录的相关系数最高可达0.7以上,其他站的相关系数取值也均接近或超过0.6,说明重建序列能较好地反映秦岭地区的初春温度变化。对重建序列的分析结果表明,近300年来秦岭地区的初春温度变化存在明显的冷暖时段：1715~1740年、1773~1804年和1893~1958年三个时段的初春温度相对较高,持续时间分别为26年、32年和66年;而1741~1772年、1805~1892年、1959~1992年三个时段的初春温度相对较低,持续时间分别为32年、88年和34年,在整体上具有升温快速降温缓慢的特征。重建结果的变化趋势与其他相关研究结果极为一致。但是在20世纪后期,无论是在重建序列还是在器测序列中至少到1992年均未反映出明显的增温趋势。秦岭西部地区初春季节变冷与增暖的幅度均大于秦岭中东部地区。此外,秦岭地区初春温度变化具有100年左右、50~60年、7~8年以及2~3年等准周期变化特征。     

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ALONG A NORTH–SOUTH TRANSECT OF FINLAND OVER THE LAST 500 YEARS: SIGNATURE OF SOLAR INFLUENCE OR INTERNAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS?

Statistical analysis of a multi-centennial dendrochronological proxy dataset of regional climate, constructed across the latitudinal gradient of 1000 km, was performed. It was shown that centennial ( c. 100 year), tri-decadal (27-32 year), bi-decadal (17-23 year) and decadal (9-13 year) periodicities governed the climate variability in Finland over the last five centuries. Despite the fact that many of the climatic periodicities bore great resemblance to periodicities of solar cycles, little evidence of actual solar influence on Finnish climate was found when the climate proxy records were subjected to linear correlation analysis with sunspot numbers. Highly non-linear response of Northern Fennoscandian climate to solar forcing might be a cause of this result, as well as influence of terrestrial climatic processes (e.g. effect of other forcing factors and internal dynamics of regional climate). Our results show that the presence of internal climate variability at time-scales of solar activity might distort the solar signature in climatic data and complicate its detection.     

SUMMER TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN CENTRAL SCANDINAVIA DURING THE LAST 3600 YEARS

ABSTRACT. A Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring width chronology from Jämtland, in the central Scandinavian Mountains, built from living and sub-fossil wood, covering the period 1632 BC to AD 2002, with a minor gap during AD 887–907, is presented. This is the first multi-millennial tree-ring chronology from the central parts of Fennoscandia. Pine growth in this tree line environment is mainly limited by summer temperatures, and hence the record can be viewed as a temperature proxy. Using the regional curve standardization (RCS) technique, pine-growth variability on short and long time scales was retained and subsequently summer (June–August) temperatures were reconstructed yielding information on temperature variability during the last 3600 years. Several periods with anomalously warm or cold summers were found: 450–550 BC (warm), AD 300–400 (cold), AD 900–1000 (the Medieval Warm Period, warm) and AD 1550–1900 (Little Ice Age, cold). The coldest period was encountered in the fourth century AD and the warmest period 450 to 550 BC. However, the magnitude of these anomalies is uncertain since the replication of trees in the Jämtland record is low during those periods. The twentieth century warming does not stand out as an anomalous feature in the last 3600 years. Two multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies from Swedish and Finnish Lapland, which have previously been used as summer temperature proxies, agree well with the Jämtland record, indicating that the latter is a good proxy of local, but also regional, summer temperature variability.     

树木年轮学在环境变化研究中的应用

由于树木在其生长的过程中,需要从环境中吸收养分和能量并且从环境中汲取各种化学元素到每年的生长层(即年轮)中,所以树木年轮与它们的生长环境是密切相关的。树木年轮可以提供树轮生长的环境要素信息,其应用领域也日益扩大。文章综述了树木年轮长年表的建立以及在气候变化、环境污染等方面的若干应用,并且概述了树木年轮研究方法的进展。     

Placing modern droughts in historical context in the Ohio Valley using tree-rings

The temporal variability and severity of pre-instrument record summer droughts in the Ohio River Valley (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, USA) are not well understood. This study attempts to help fill this gap in Ohio Valley drought knowledge by using tree-ring chronologies from Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio to reconstruct summer (June through August) PDSI. We found that recent meteorological droughts of 1988 and 2012 are not unusual in the context of those reconstructed for the interval of 1680–2012. Droughts prior to 1895 (when the instrument-based record began) were more severe and lasted, on average, 1.5 times longer than those after 1895. The North American Drought Atlas represents droughts well for this region, but we found that drought severity was not homogeneous across the three sites. This indicates drought in the Ohio River Valley should be examined at a sub-regional level and suggests a need for a finer spatial representation of tree-ring chronologies in the Ohio Valley. Given the context of historical drought variability, the reconstructions suggest this region should be prepared for droughts that may be more severe and longer lasting than those recently observed.     

Feedback-Driven Response to Multidecadal Climatic Variability at an Alpine Treeline

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has significant climatological and ecological effects in northwestern North America. Its possible effects and their modification by feedbacks are examined in the forest-tundra ecotone in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Tree ring samples were collected to estimate establishment dates in 10 quadrats. Age-diameter regressions were used to estimate the ages of uncored trees. The temporal pattern of establishment and survival was compared to the pattern of the PDO. A wave of establishment began in the mid-1940s, rose to a peak rate in the mid-1970s, and dropped precipitously beginning ca. 1980 to near zero for the 1990s. The period of establishment primarily coincided with the negative phase of the PDO, but the establishment and survival pattern is not correlated with the PDO index. The pattern indicates a period during which establishment was possible and was augmented by positive feedback from surviving trees. Snow may be the most important factor in the feedback, but studies indicate that its effects vary locally. Spatially differentiated analyses of decadal or longer periodicity may elucidate responses to climatic variation.