合肥市耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

收集1980～1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量、质量变化和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为，在2005，2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别为97％和95％，对粮食生产与其影响因素进行了灰色关联分析，提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径。     

基于灰关联分析的GPS高程拟合加权平均函数模型权函数优选

基于灰色系统理论的灰关联分析方法,提出了权函数的优选方法,实例分析表明其具有较好的实用价值.     

物元可拓法在地下水水质评价中的应用

可以从定性、定量两个角度解决问题的物元可拓法已被广泛应用于各个领域,本文对物元可拓法进行了改进,并应用于地下水水质评价,同时采用模糊综合评判方法进行了验证。Piper-三线图显示,研究区地下水主要为HCO3—Na和HCO3—Ca·Na型水,水质本底条件较好。水质评价结果表明,上第三系馆陶组地下水水质显著优于明化镇组,1984~1999年间明化镇组和馆陶组的地下水水质均有变坏趋势,前者趋势较为明显。物元可拓法采用综合关联度与可拓指数判断地下水水质级别,不仅能反映其相对性,也能反映绝对性,可延拓连续的特点使其更有说服力。     

地下管网时空信息集成与管理技术创新

提出了建立管网信息普查及信息录入系统,以及完善管网信息关系数据库、综合管网图制作、管网信息空间数据库、三维管网部件模型库等各项工作,通过调用不同数据库的空间信息与属性信息,实现了三维管网模型的快速构建。采用MD5建立了管网模型与属性信息自动关联技术,叠加了原有的地表建（构）筑物模型,引入了统一的时空基准,开发了地上下建（构）筑物管理平台,具有三维模式下现有二维地图无法实现的空间分析等功能,实现了各类三维数据的综合可视化和融合分析,可为城市地下管网管理提供更直观的辅助决策支持。     

The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation

Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation, some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake.     

基于Geoview的地质灾害勘察资料一体化管理

借助地理信息系统技术,分析、明确了各成果资料间固有的联系,建立了基于GIS和RDB技术的勘察资料生成、存储、管理使用模式,并以Geoview为GIS平台开发了地质灾害勘察信息系统--GeoHazard,该系统不仅实现了当前基于CAD的勘察系统的可视化数据采集存储、图件编绘功能,而且实现了地质灾害勘察过程中的文档、图件、属性记录等的一体化关联存储.     

多尺度矢量地图数据关联自动更新研究

多级比例尺矢量地图数据库一旦建成以后,数字制图的核心就从数据生产转为数据更新.小比例尺矢量地图数据库建库时必须依靠大量人机交互从大比例尺数据派生,但更新时再采取各比例尺分别独立更新的策略显然就不合时宜,既消耗大量人力和财力,又不能保证不同尺度数据之间的一致性.提出一种多尺度矢量地图数据关联自动更新方法,对于已经建成的多...     

Spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of land use change

The complexity of land use and land cover (LULC) change models is often attributed to spatial heterogeneity of the phenomena they try to emulate. The associated outcome uncertainty stems from a combination of model unknowns. Contrarily to the widely shared consensus on the importance of evaluating outcome uncertainty, little attention has been given to the role a well-structured spatially explicit sensitivity analysis (SSA) of LULC models can play in corroborating model results. In this article, I propose a methodology for SSA that employs sensitivity indices (SIs), which decompose outcome uncertainty and allocate it to various combinations of inputs. Using an agent-based model of residential development, I explore the utility of the methodology in explaining the uncertainty of simulated land use change. Model sensitivity is analyzed using two approaches. The first is spatially inexplicit in that it applies SI to scalar outputs, where outcome land use maps are lumped into spatial statistics. The second approach, which is spatially explicit, employs the maps directly in SI calculations. It generates sensitivity maps that allow for identifying regions of factor influence, that is, areas where a particular input contributes most to the clusters of residential development uncertainty. I demonstrate that these two approaches are complementary, but at the same time can lead to different decisions regarding input factor prioritization.     

The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation

Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation, some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake.     

基于物元模型的西北干旱区城市环境质量综合评价--以河西走廊的张掖市为例

在我国实施西部大开发战略以及全面建设小康社会的过程当中,西北干旱区的工业化和城市化进程将进一步加快,由此必然带来城市环境污染治理难度加大的问题。对城市环境质量进行综合评价,并分析城市环境质量变化的原因和发展趋势,是当前西北干旱区城市环境保护工作亟待加强的首要课题。针对西北干旱区城市环境的特点,选取有代表性的14个具体指标作为西北干旱区城市环境质量综合评价的指标体系。在参考国家环保总局制定的环境标准的基础上,将城市环境质量划分为5个级别,并利用物元分析理论,建立了西北干旱区城市环境质量综合评价的物元模型。以西北干旱区典型的绿洲城市张掖市为例对该模型进行了具体应用。结果表明,8年来张掖市的城市环境质量一直属于Ⅱ级,而且有总体好转的趋势,但是这一趋势并不明显。这一结果与现实成因吻合,说明所采用的指标体系和评价方法对西北干旱区城市环境质量的综合评价具有较强的应用价值和现实意义,可以在西北干旱区其它同类城市进一步推广。