Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An approach to quantitative analysis of regional economic links

Aimed at promoting regional coalitions and expanding the approach to economic links, this paper puts forward some new concepts such as link intensity and receiving coefficient, expounds the indexes of quantitative analysis of economic links and establishes the quantitative-analysis model of economic links. With help of the model, this paper calculates the values of the link intensities between Su-Xi-Chang (Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou) region and Shanghai, and analyzes the regional difference of the economic links.     

A new approach for predicting the extreme response of structures

In this article a method to estimate the mean upcrossing intensity, μ(u), of a stochastic process is proposed. It is assumed that the stochastic process is a sum of a Gaussian process and a second-order correction term. The method is based on the two-dimensional Saddlepoint approximation. The accuracy of the method is tested on processes having analytical solutions for μ(u). Numerical examples are given where the stochastic process represents (i) the horizontal response of a floating offshore structure in a Gaussian sea, and (ii) the response of a structure subjected to a Gaussian wind velocity process. In addition, the estimates are compared to empirical upcrossing intensities of simulated responses. For case (ii), the obtained μ(u) estimates are compared to estimates obtained by numerical integration.     

哀牢山-红河断裂带中段应变分析

对哀牢山—红河断裂带中段和平—水塘剖面、墨江—元江剖面和其它地段的岩石应变及磁组构进行了分析，表明应变强度的校正磁各向异性度PJ从断裂带向西至三叠系明显降低，变形强度向西迅速减弱。磁化率椭球体主轴展布反映出剪切带内、外变形方式的改变。剪切带内，以水平走滑运动为主；向西则以水平缩短为主。在应变分析中，对断裂带内的S—C组构两组面理夹角、杏仁体和石榴石应变标志体进行了测量，结果显示，剪切带内的磁组构和岩石组构间关系较差。此外，还对这两条剖面中的三叠系进行了应变和磁组构分析，找出了它们与磁化率椭球体对应轴率间的相关性。     

成像光谱矿物填图精度兼与矿物丰度关系初探

成像光谱遥感技术在岩石矿物识别和矿物填图方面发挥着越来越大作用,而成像光谱矿物填图的精度问题一直是研究的焦点。文章利用高光谱数据HyMap对新疆东天山地区的矿物填图结果,通过引入矿物填绘分布强度的概念,探索性的分析了成像光谱矿物填图与填绘矿物丰度的关系。     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.