Stable inversions for complete moment tensors

The seismic moment tensors for certain types of sources, such as volcanic earthquakes and nuclear explosions are expected to contain an isotropic component. Some earlier efforts to calculate the isotropic component of these sources are flawed due to an error in the method of Jost & Herrmann. We corrected the method after Herrmann & Hutchensen and found great improvement in the recovery of non-double-couple moment tensors that include an isotropic component. Tests with synthetic data demonstrate the stability of the corrected linear inversion method, and we recalculate the moment tensor solutions reported in Dreger et al. for Long Valley caldera events and Dreger & Woods for Nevada Test Site nuclear explosions. We confirm the findings of Dreger et al. that the Long Valley volcanic sources contain large statistically significant isotropic components. The nuclear explosions have strikingly anomalous source mechanisms, which contain very large isotropic components, making it evident that these events are not tectonic in origin. This indicates that moment tensor inversions could be an important tool for nuclear monitoring.     

The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

The United States’ decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement (pending possible re-engagement under different terms) may have significant ramifications for international climate policy, but the implications of this decision remain contested. This commentary illustrates how comparative analysis of US participation in multilateral environmental agreements can inform predictions and future assessments of the decision. We compare and contrast US non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, focusing on four key areas that may condition the influence of US treaty decisions on international climate policy: (i) global momentum on climate change mitigation; (ii) the possibility of US non-participation giving rise to alternative forms of international collaboration on climate policy; (iii) the timing and circumstances of the US decision to exit; and (iv) the influence of treaty design on countries’ incentives to participate and comply. We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement.

Key policy insights

• Increasing global momentum on mitigation since 1997 means that US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is potentially less damaging than its non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol

• Despite the declining US share of global emissions, greater urgency of deep decarbonization means that the non-participation of a major player, such as the US, remains problematic for global cooperation and achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals

• Differences in the design of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement suggest that US non-participation is more likely to prompt reluctant countries to stay within the Paris framework but reduce levels of ambition and compliance, rather than exit the Agreement altogether

     

George Jobberns,freemasonry, geopolitics and the post‐WWII world

The article suggests Jobberns’ view of geopolitics ultimately rested on the work of British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder overlain by the writing of American political geographers. Jobberns’ geopolitical thinking was, however, also strongly informed by his being a Freemason. WWII, as the overshadowing external event of Jobberns’ early years at Canterbury, amplified his interest in geopolitics both as a way of understanding the world and, at a time when geography was not universally accepted as a university discipline, as a means of promoting to a wider public the utility of a geographical perspective on world affairs.     

Water in the Middle East peace process

Water resources occupy an important role in the bilateral negotiations of the Middle East peace process. This paper mentions the conflicting water plans for the utilization of the Jordan basin by Arabs and Israelis, and describes the issues that are to be handled in the process of peacemaking. It defines the water issues between Israel and each of its neighbouring entities: Jordan, the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon, and reviews what has been addressed in the peace negotiations thus far. A more detailed review is made of the negotiation tracks where progress was made, and a less detailed review is made of the negotiations that settled the water dispute between Jordan and Israel. The paper alludes to the claims of water wars in the region and provides evidence that water has not been a catalyst for war in the Middle East. It also proposes some topics for research that can be of interest to alleviate water shortage.     

赫德和中法和约

中法战争期间 ,中国海关总税务司赫德积极插手中法谈判 ,在不同的阶段中扮演了不同的角色。在充当法国侵略者的帮凶遭到中国政府和人民的坚决反对后 ,他在照顾中国利益的基础上 ,促成了中法两国签订了和约 ,结束了战争     

国家自主贡献更新进展、特征及其对全球气候治理的影响

国家自主贡献(NDC)是《巴黎协定》最核心的制度,体现了全球气候治理模式从"自上而下"到"自下而上"的变迁.文中对截至2021年7月1日92个缔约方通报或更新的NDC进行了比较分析,识别出7种更新方式:提高量化减排目标数字、调整减排目标类型和覆盖范围、增加适应目标和政策、增加2050年减排愿景、主动适用NDC信息和核算...     

Ghana’s experience in the establishment of a national data center

The government of Ghana in a bilateral agreement with the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has established a National Data Center in Ghana with the aim of monitoring the testing of nuclear explosions. Seismic, hydroacoustic, radionuclide and infrasound methods are used for the monitoring. The data center was commissioned on 3 February, 2010 at the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission. At present Ghana does not have any operational, centralised data (seismic, hydroacoustic, radionuclide and infrasound) acquisition system with the capability of accessing data from other international stations. Hence, the need of setting up the National Data Center which would enable us constantly monitor, manage and coordinate both natural and man-made seismic activities in the country and around the globe, upload data to the International Data Center (IDC) as well as receive and use International Monitoring System (IMS) data and IDC products for treaty verification and compliance. Apart from these, the center also accesses and analyzes seismic waveforms relevant to its needs from the International Data Center; makes data available to its stakeholder institutions for earthquake disaster mitigation; reports on all aspects of disasters related to earthquake to the relevant government agencies that deal with disasters; makes recommendations to the government of Ghana on earthquake safety measures; provides information to assist government institutions to develop appropriate land and building policies. The center in collaboration with stakeholder agencies periodically organises public lectures on earthquake disaster risk mitigation.     

Spaces of unintended consequences: The Ground Safety Zone in Kosovo

In the spring of 1999 NATO conducted a 79-day air campaign against Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) to force that country to cease the ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians and to force the withdrawal of Yugoslavian forces from the province. In June of 1999 a NATO led military force (KFOR or Kosovo Force) entered Kosovo to reestablish a safe and secure environment. Shortly thereafter ethnic Albanian armed extremists groups launched an insurgency in the neighboring Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia in a bid to join the predominantly ethnic Albanian population of that area with Kosovo. The rebels used the five-kilometer wide Ground Safety Zone, established by NATO, as a sanctuary from which to attack Serb police and military units. NATO and KFOR found themselves in the predicament of having to halt this insurgency while maintaining the peace in Kosovo. This paper provides a case study in applied political geography that examines the unintended consequences of creating an uncontrolled political and security space in the midst of a zone of conflict. Additionally, this paper will present a revised application of the concept of Peace Geography for the Post Cold War Era. Peace Geography involves the elements of association, disassociation, and isolation. These elements proved to be critical in bringing the Presevo Valley Insurrection to a peaceful conclusion, and this revised and updated peace geography shows great promise for future peacekeeping operations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

(Re)Framing ocean acidification in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

Ocean acidification is most frequently framed by the scientific community as a concurrent threat to climate change, rather than an effect of it. This separation of the two phenomena has long been deemed as a way of garnering heightened policy attention for ocean acidification rather than having it bound up in the often contested politics of climate change. This effort, however, appears to have resulted in the inadvertent placing of ocean acidification outside of the mandate of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This has created a significant gap in the global governance of this issue with no multilateral agreement understood as having jurisdiction over the mitigation of rising ocean acidity. For these reasons this paper argues that an alternative framing of ocean acidification as an effect of climate change is warranted. This would include ocean acidification in the core obligations of the Convention, thereby filling the mitigation governance gap and avoiding perverse implementation outcomes. It is contended that interpreting the UNFCCC in this way is more consistent with its objective and purpose than the existing interpretations that place ocean acidification beyond the remit of the Convention.

Key policy insights

• Ocean acidification is best understood as an effect of climate change in the context of the UNFCCC, and therefore is included in its obligations to combat climate change and its adverse effects.

• An obligation to address ocean acidification has implications for the way that the provisions of the Convention, particularly on mitigation, are implemented. Mitigation activities that exacerbate ocean acidification or lead to emission reduction pathways that do not prevent dangerous acidification should be deemed inconsistent with the Convention.

• Protection, conservation and restoration of coastal and marine ecosystems should become a priority area for action within the UNFCCC.