黄河源区牧民观念更新的生计促进效应

以黄河源区为案例,选择人均纯收入、人均GDP、人均牛羊肉产量、人均奶产量作为刻画牧民生计的关键指标;选择载畜量(反映财富观念),牲畜出栏率、牲畜商品率(反映商品观念),适龄母畜比、成畜损亡率(反映科技观念)来刻画牧民思想观念,以此构建牧民生计和观念的关联模型.研究结果表明:1.牧民生计与牧民观念之间存在较为显著的非线性函数关系;2.从指标层次看,牲畜出栏率、牲畜商品率对牧民人均纯收入、人均肉产量均产生最强的增效作用;适龄母畜比例对人均GDP的作用效率最大;相反,载畜量对牧民人均纯收入具有最强的减效作用;3.牧民观念直接制约着牧民的生计水平.对此,从政策维度看,加强牧民思想意识的宣传教育,进一步强化技能培训,提高素质,革新传统的财富观念(崇尚牲畜拥有量越多越富)、破除陈旧的商品观念(抵制牲畜出栏和商品化)、树立先进的管理观念(着力结构调整和抗灾能力),对牧区持续发展具有迫切性,对牧民生计改进具有现实性.     

Crisis in policy, policy in crisis: understanding environmental discourse and resource-use conflict in northern Nigeria

This article explores the emergence and persistence of crisis narratives in the policy environment of twentieth century Nigeria. It finds that environmental crisis narratives have a well-established and traceable historical lineage, initially, as continuity between colonial and post-colonial policy discourse, but more recently with donor agencies gaining increasing importance in influencing and shaping debate. Counter-narratives are identified, but these lack historical 'legitimacy', and often sit uncomfortably alongside donor-funded initiatives. In light of weak governance systems that impede the development and maintenance of robust data-sets, the article argues that flawed 'conventional wisdom' regarding environmental processes and people–environment linkages will combine to produce a policy environment that could actually constrain rather than enable the improvement of rural livelihoods.