Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

气候转型与早期人类迁徙

目前的旧石器考古证据表明，更新世早期可能发生了两次人类迁徙浪潮，时间分别在1.8-1.6MaBP和1.0MaBP左右，第一阶段，古人类演化为直立人并开始走出非洲、迁徙至其它中低纬度的热带－亚热带地区；第二阶段，直立人开始占据中高纬度的温带和干旱－半干旱地区。这两个阶段也是第四纪气候发生转型、环境产生重大调整的时期。二者在发生时间上的一致性揭示了它们之间的内在联系，推测气候转型时期环境转变是这两次人类迁徙浪潮的主要驱动力。     

A comparison of three marine ecosystems surrounding the Korean peninsula: Responses to climate change

This study uses a comparative approach to examine responses of marine ecosystems to climatic regime shifts. The three seas surrounding the Korean peninsula, the Japan/East Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea represent three contiguous but distinct ecosystems. Sampling has been carried out by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute of South Korea since 1965, using the same methods in all three seas. Sampling was generally synoptic. Amplitude time series of 1st EOF modes for temperature, salinity, zooplankton biomass and concentrations of four major zooplankton taxa were used to determine whether the three marine ecosystems respond in a similar manner to climate variations. Temporal patterns of the variables were strongly similar among the three seas at decadal time scales, but very weakly similar at interannual scales. All three seas responded to a climatic regime shift that occurred in 1989. Temperature, zooplankton biomass and copepod concentrations increased in the late 1980s or early 1990s in all three seas. Concentrations of amphipods, chaetognaths and euphausiids also increased in the Japan/East Sea and the East China Sea, but not the Yellow Sea. The Yellow Sea ecosystem differs strongly from the other two seas, and water exchange between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea is much weaker than that between the East China Sea and Japan/East Sea. Spatial patterns of zooplankton determined by the EOF analysis were closely related to currents and fronts in each of the three seas.     

祁连山地区1310年以来湿润指数及其年际变幅的变化与突变分析

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。     

Persistent alternate abundance states in the coral reef sea urchin Diadema savignyi: evidence of alternate attractors

Alternate attractors have been shown to exist in a variety of terrestrial and aquatic systems, e.g. temperate forests, savannas, shallow lakes, wetlands, coral reefs, kelp forests. The shift from one attractor to another, also referred to as a regime shift, is thought to occur when a system passes some critical threshold such that the trajectory of the system changes direction. Alternate attractors in population dynamics can also exist, leading to alternate stable states in the population abundance of a species. This study explored alternate attractors in the population dynamics of the Indo‐Pacific sea urchin Diadema savignyi and the potential underlying mechanisms that promote its bi‐stability. In Moorea, French Polynesia, the local abundance of D. savignyi, a functionally important herbivore in lagoon habitats, occurs in two states: (i) solitary individuals that occupy crevices in low densities and (ii) aggregations of tens to hundreds of individuals. These different states are temporally stable and are not explained by spatial differences in recruitment rates of juveniles. A field experiment revealed that the per capita mortality rate of adult D. savignyi was substantially lower at sites where urchins occurred in aggregations compared with sites at which they were solitary individuals. An additional experiment showed that per capita mortality decreased with increasing aggregation size. Individuals in high‐density aggregations, however, had significantly smaller test diameters than solitary individuals, indicating that individuals in aggregations may be food limited. Collectively, the evidence suggests that the two different local abundance states of D. savignyi result from negative feedback loops where high local density can be maintained by aggregative behavior that greatly reduces per capita risk of predation when the local number of adult sea urchins is sufficiently large; sites with few sea urchins remain at low density because individuals are more susceptible to predation when crevices are occupied but there are not enough individuals to form large aggregations. Thus, there may be alternate attractors in the population dynamics of D. savignyi that can produce either persistently low or high local population densities.     

Fishers’ knowledge indicates short-term temporal changes in the amount and composition of catches in the southwestern Atlantic

The scarcity of data on fish catches difficult management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries. This study applies fishers’ knowledge to investigate temporal changes in the amount (biomass) and composition (major ecological categories) of fishing resources exploited by small-scale coastal fisheries in the southeastern Brazilian coast. Four hypotheses were investigated: (1) The amount of fish caught reported by fishers would decrease over time. (2) Older fishers would report higher fish catches than younger fishers. (3) Recent interviews would mention large-sized predators less often. (4) Recent interviews would mention less high valued fishing resources. Interviews with 421 fishers in 36 communities in the southeastern Brazilian coast were analyzed, covering a time span of 14 years, from 1995 to 2009. The hypothesis 1 was confirmed, 3 was partially confirmed, while 2 and 4 were not confirmed. Fishers’ age was unrelated to all variables. The results from fishers’ interviews indicated the temporal trends of: (1) a decrease in the biomass of fish caught; (2) an increase in the occurrence of smaller fish and invertebrates in the catch; (3) an increase of high value fishing resources; and (4) maintenance of large predators. The first two indicators suggest excessive fishing, but the later indicators (3 and 4) suggest that the socioecological system of the southeastern Brazilian coast had not yet undergone major ecological shifts.     

Including animal to plant protein shifts in climate change mitigation policy: a proposed three-step strategy

Strong and rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, far beyond those currently committed to, are required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This allows no sector to maintain business as usual practices, while application of the precautionary principle requires avoiding a reliance on negative emission technologies. Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions. Unabated, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030. Inaction in the livestock sector would require substantial GHG reductions, far beyond what are planned or realistic, from other sectors. This outlook article outlines why animal to plant-sourced protein shifts should be taken up by the Conference of the Parties (COP), and how they could feature as part of countries’ mitigation commitments under their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be adopted from 2020 onwards. The proposed framework includes an acknowledgment of ‘peak livestock’, followed by targets for large and rapid reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. Adequate support, including climate finance, is needed to facilitate countries in implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.

Key policy insights

• Given the livestock sector’s significant contribution to global GHG emissions and methane dominance, animal to plant protein shifts make a necessary contribution to meeting the Paris temperature goals and reducing warming in the short term, while providing a suite of co-benefits.

• Without action, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030.

• Failure to implement animal to plant protein shifts increases the risk of exceeding temperate goals; requires additional GHG reductions from other sectors; and increases reliance on negative emissions technologies.

• COP 24 is an opportunity to bring animal to plant protein shifts to the climate mitigation table.

• Revised NDCs from 2020 should include animal to plant protein shifts, starting with a declaration of ‘peak livestock’, followed by a ‘worst first’ replacement approach, guided by ‘best available food’.

     

食物系统认知进展及其地理学研究范式探讨

食物关系国计民生,中国食物系统面临诸多挑战,耕地资源趋减、环境压力临界、农业劳动力流失、消费需求快速转型等对食物系统功能提出更高要求,地理学的综合性和系统性思维为应对这些问题提供了有效的工具和视角。尽管食物系统得到世界银行、联合国粮农组织以及其他国际各方的高度关注,但目前国内对食物系统的研究却严重不足。论文对食物系统的认知进展进行了深入分析,归纳了食物系统的概念认知历程、类型、特征,梳理出食物系统的研究脉络,包括从“概念”存在到“方法”存在、从线性认知到系统认知、从经济活动到食物景观、从现象描述到时空嵌入等,以此凝练出食物系统的核心内涵与认知进展;在科学哲学范式、人地关系范式、空间范式和系统科学范式指导下,论文遵从“格局—结构—过程—机理”由表及里的研究脉络,进一步探讨了食物系统的时空格局、要素结构、演化过程和发展机理,尝试构建了食物系统的地理学研究范式,研究结论旨在为推动食物系统视角基础研究和实践应用提供参考和借鉴。     

中国城市体系网络化研究

当前,学者普遍认同城市体系研究的重心从等级范式向网络范式转向。在大量的文献梳理基础上,阐述20世纪80年代以来中国城市体系研究范式的转向过程,并进一步梳理中国城市网络研究的进展、问题与关注重点。结果表明：2010年之后,网络成为中国城市体系研究的主流范式,等级体系文献数量呈波动递减趋势,全国和长三角成为热点关注区域;属性数据一定程度上弥补了早期城市网络研究中数据匮乏的状况,关系数据应成为未来研究的侧重点;不同研究视角及其所应用的数据存在着一定的局限性,多元视角的综合研究成为趋势。在此基础上,提出城市网络研究未来可能的突破点,包括：调整国家城市网络的研究框架、超越交通数据直接考察城市间的实体联系、测度企业外部的横向联系、有向加权网络分析和可视化、增加研究中的地理“意味”等。