The “unrevealed casualties” of the Irish mortgage crisis: Analysing the broader impacts of mortgage market financialisation

Since 2008, extensive research has examined the impacts of mortgage market financialisation, particularly the socio-spatial patterns of mortgage defaults and foreclosures. However, these standard statistical indicators of mortgage difficulty only capture the ‘overt casualties’ of the crisis, overlooking the mass of households who meet their mortgage commitments, but do so at considerable cost to quality of life. The impacts of the crisis on these ‘unrevealed casualties’ has received insufficient attention within the literature. As such, this article develops a framework to assess mortgage stress levels using standard and atypical indicators of mortgage payment difficulty. This framework differentiates between the ‘overt’ and ‘unrevealed’ casualties and is applied through a case study of suburban Dublin mortgagors to examine the characteristics of these groups, determine the key factors driving their mortgage stress and assess how their attitudes towards homeownership are being reshaped. The results suggest the impact of the mortgage crisis is much larger than previously considered, affecting a more diverse range of suburban households, many of whom may be one financial or non-financial trigger event away from developing a more serious payments problem. Banks’ reckless lending practices are among the strongest predictors of mortgage stress, demonstrating how the failure to adequately regulate banking practices has had detrimental financial impacts for households at the suburban scale. Attitudes toward homeownership and its investment function are increasingly negative, demonstrating how the primary rationale for homeownership expansion (i.e. its potential for wealth creation) is being revaluated by mortgaged households in the wake of the crash.     

贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性及生计干预——以陇南山区为例

增强贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性不仅是新时期农村扶贫的现实需求,更是推动乡村振兴的客观要求。论文从生计资本、生计策略及生计环境出发,建立了脱贫农户的生计可持续性评价指标体系,利用陇南山区脱贫农户的入户调查资料,评估贫困山区脱贫农户的生计可持续性、识别脱贫农户的生计障碍。研究发现:① 从川坝河谷区、半山区到高山区,从早期脱贫到后期脱贫,脱贫农户的生计可持续性依次降低,且务工型与农工互补型脱贫农户的生计可持续性强于其他生计方式农户;② 陇南山区生计不可持续脱贫农户比重达28.83%,高山区、传统务农型及后期脱贫户中生计不可持续农户比重较高,而川坝河谷区、农工互补型与务工型及早期脱贫户中该比重较低;③ 生计不可持续脱贫户均面临着多元生计障碍,其中近2/3的农户面临多维资本—环境阻滞型与多重要素阻滞型障碍;④ 针对生计不可持续脱贫农户面临的多元生计障碍,需分类实施多维生计干预。     

秦巴山集中连片特困区农户多维贫困测度与影响机理分析——以商洛市为例

中国扶贫瞄准单位已下沉到农户单元,发展和完善农户尺度的多维贫困测度方法是精准配置扶贫资源、提高扶贫效率的关键。通过借鉴“人”“地”和“业”关系理论构建了“能力—资本—环境”多维贫困综合评估框架,以秦巴山特困区商洛为例,通过多维贫困测度体系对农户进行综合测度,识别样本区多维贫困户,进而与建档立卡贫困户进行对比分析,并探讨了多维贫困发生的主要影响机理,最后依据多维贫困户剥夺维度的组合划分不同类型。研究结果表明:① 有245户被识别为多维贫困户,239户被识别为非多维贫困户,多维贫困户与非多维贫困户在能力维度、资本维度和环境维度均存在较大差异;② 有84.08%的多维贫困户与建档立卡贫困户相重叠,多维贫困户在综合维度和单维度的贫困程度均较深;③ 多维贫困发生主要受“人”的发展能力和生产能力、“业”的金融资本、物质资本以及“地”的地理条件和区位的弱势或剥夺的影响;④ 多维贫困户划分为发展缺失型、复合贫困型、生存环境恶劣型和综合贫困型4类。     

甘肃省会宁县和定西市安定区退耕农户恩格尔系数差异

测度退耕还林农户的恩格尔系数并分析其显著影响因素及差异性,对于完善退耕还林政策、巩固退耕还林成果、改善退耕农户贫困状况具有重要的现实意义。选取位于黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的会宁县和定西市安定区退耕户跟踪数据,基于收入、政策、家庭因素等多个层面构建相关经济指标,揭示两个区域退耕户恩格尔系数呈现的基本特征、显著影响因素及其差异性。结果表明：首先,由于自然地理环境和区位相近,会宁县和安定区退耕户恩格尔系数呈现出较为一致的高位波动趋势,消费需求弹性较弱是主要影响因素;其次,退耕还林户补贴率对会宁县恩格尔系数有显著的负向影响,说明退耕还林政策对当地居民经济生活具有显著影响,安定区退耕还林户补贴率对恩格尔系数有显著的正向影响,主要原因是退耕还林补贴额在家庭收入中所占比重较少;最后,会宁县和安定区农户退耕率对恩格尔系数有显著影响,这意味着退耕户的主要收入来源于农业收入。     

The population structural transition effect on rising per capita CO2 emissions: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO₂ emissions.

• The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.

• Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

     

不同城市化水平地区农户农地收入分析——基于浙江省农户的问卷调查

用SPSS13.0单因素方差分析和均值比较方法,对浙江省不同城市化地区的农户农地收入比重进行比较分析。认为城市化不同,农户农地收入比重不同,城市化程度高的地区农户农地利用经济收入比值的平均值低于城市化程度低的地区,但城市化程度高的地区农户农地收入比值标准差大于城市化低的地区,其中主要原因是城市化不同导致农户兼业时间不同。提出要创造条件促进资源集中型农户兼业化,使农户农地利用经济效率得到提高,缩小城乡收入差距。     

Japan’s urban singles: negotiating alternatives to family households and standard housing pathways

In comparison to other advanced economies, the rise of people living alone in Japan has been late and rapid, with singletons now accounting for almost half of all households in major cities. The normative and structural frameworks surrounding standard family-household formation, however, remain formidable, reducing life-course opportunities for non-family formers. This paper considers the household and housing pathways being negotiated by younger-adults living independently. In addition to various secondary data sources, we draw on qualitative interviews with 35 individuals from 28 Tokyo households in addressing manifestations of, and resistance to, atomisation and individualisation in the Japanese context. Our analysis focuses on meanings and practices of homemaking among renters and buyers in the growing sector of single-person dwellings, as well as the recent emergence of commercial shared housing . This analysis provides a contrast to discourses surrounding the “singles boom” and “the growing appeal of living alone” in Western cities.     

农户活动空间选择的影响因素及其收入效应——河南省农户调查与实证

在实地农户调查的基础上,通过把农户活动空间划分为局部（L）、村庄（V）、区域（R）和国家（N）4个尺度空间,分析农户活动空间策略;并构建多元逻辑回归模型,从农户特征、地理因素分析农户活动空间策略选择的影响因素。研究发现,在活动空间选择方面,农户往往以局部空间为基础,向其他活动空间拓展,采取空间组合策略。各活动空间对农户收入的贡献程度不同,国家活动空间对农户收入贡献最大。影响因素方面,农户所处的区位、拥有的劳动力数量显著的影响农户活动空间策略选择;初中教育水平对农户在区域、国家尺度上的活动影响显著;较少的耕地与农户活动空间策略选择具有相关性;通达性主要影响区域尺度活动空间选择。镇域经济发展水平对农户活动空间策略选择整体上不显著。     

宅基地流转农户行为影响因素的实证研究——基于广东省19个县市34个行政村的抽样调查

宅基地流转是提高农村宅基地资源有效配置的途径之一.以广东省为例,在对19个县(市、区)34个行政村544户农户抽样调查的基础上,运用 Logistic 回归模型,定量分析广东省不同区域类别下农户宅基地流转的主要影响因素及其影响程度.研究表明:广东省省域59.33%的农户发生宅基地流转,而珠江三角洲地区和粤东地区的比例分别高达67.42%和62.5%,粤西地区和粤北地区的比例分别为59.26%和43.04%;不同区域类别下农户宅基地流转的主要影响因素有明显差异;农户家庭年纯收入和宅基地面积因子是影响广东省宅基地流转的最重要因素.针对研究结果,提出了相应促进宅基地资源更有效配置的政策建议     

基于Multi-Agent System的多尺度土地利用变化模型的构建与模拟

通过土地利用情景变化模型反映多尺度的土地利用现象,是学者们研究的焦点问题。本文基于MAS理论,构建从地块到村庄的多尺度土地利用变化模型,揭示微观层面不同尺度上土地利用变化的机制。应用该模型,以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例进行研究,定量分析该村农户个体、农户群体和农户整体等不同尺度上的土地利用决策,并通过与2008年实际土地利用变化数据对比和分析,对构建的多尺度土地利用变化模型进行检验。通过分析,认为:(1)基于MAS的多尺度农户土地利用变化模型可较好地反映微观土地利用决策和空间的多尺度变化;(2)构建用 连续数值表示的农户土地利用决策与实际状况比较符合;(3) 本文为不同农户群体间的转化方法、农户间相互作用,以及市场与政策因素的作用等方面的研究打下坚实的基础。