The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses

Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt,and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins la     

台风“摩羯”和“利奇马”经渤海强度变化特征分析

利用FY 4水汽云图、NCEP/FNL资料、自动站资料和ERA Interim海温资料,分析入海增强台风“摩羯”（1814）和入海减弱台风“利奇马”（1909）经过渤海强度变化特征。结论如下：台风“摩羯”中心入海增强过程伴随着中高层冷空气侵入,冷空气深入“摩羯”云系中心,台风强度减弱并逐渐消亡。台风“利奇马”入海前冷空气已经侵入台风中心,台风入海后强度减弱,暖心结构变得不对称,低层有清晰的斜压特征。“摩羯”入海前渤海上空为强辐散区,“利奇马”入海前渤海上空为弱辐合场,北上前进方向出现高空辐散有利于台风加强。台风登陆前垂直风切变与台风强度反位相分布,北上后台风垂直风切变与台风强度同位相分布。“摩羯”入海后水汽通道出现断裂,其入海增强更多依赖于热力条件和动力条件。“利奇马”水汽通量和水汽通量散度源于自身环流的贡献。台风“摩羯”入海后潜热加热率激增,“利奇马”低层维持弱潜热加热直至台风消亡。     

Large tectonic movement of the Japan Arc in late Cenozoic times inferred from paleomagnetism: Review and synthesis

Abstract Paleomagnetic studies facilitate an understanding of the evolution of the Japan Arc in Cenozoic times from the perspective of tectonic movement. The Japan Arc rifted from the Asian continent in the middle Miocene, while East Asia, including the Japan Arc, moved northward at the same time. The rifting phenomenon of the Japan Arc is described by differential rotation of Southwest and Northeast Japan. Southwest Japan was rotated clockwise through about 45° and Northeast Japan was rotated counter-clockwise through about 40°. This differential rotation occurred concurrently at about 15 Ma. Eighty percent of the rotation was completed during a period of 1.8 million years. These factors lead us to propose a'double door'opening mode with a fast spreading rate of 21 cm/yr for the evolution of the Japan Sea, suggesting that the asthenosphere with a low viscosity was injected beneath the Japan Sea area. The large northward motion of East Asia in relation to Europe is expected from the apparent polar wander path constructed from the paleomagnetic data of the Japan Arc. East Asia may have moved northward by more than 1700 km between 20 Ma and 10 Ma accompanied by a slightly clockwise rotation of 10°. The eastern part of the Eurasian plate was subjected to extreme geodynamic conditions in late Cenozoic times.     

���ҹ��������ǵ���ϵͳ���Ƿ�Χ����չ����������̽��

????????????????????????????????Χ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????4??IGSO????????????????????????Χ???γ55??????????γ75??     

台风珍珠和鲇鱼北折路径对比分析

“珍珠”（0601,Chanchu）和“鲇鱼”（1013,Megi）都是发生北折路径的台风,通过分析发现导致台风珍珠和鲇鱼路径北折的天气形势变化有一些相同点：都发生在环境场的调整中,有西风槽影响华南的副热带高压,使之减弱东退、台风移速减慢,然后副热带高压加强并从台风南部向西南伸展、与赤道高压打通,其西侧的偏南气流与越赤道气流会合引导台风向北移动;同时有弱冷空气南侵。上述环境场的突然变化导致引导气流方向发生突然变化,是这两个台风西行北折的重要原因。引导气流分析还发现,秋台风鲇鱼最佳引导气流所在高度低于初夏台风珍珠。另外,不同的路径预报方法、不同的模式和超级集合预报提供了各种台风路径预报信息,在应用这些信息时要密切结合实况天气形势的变化,进行路径预报订正。     

谱模式SAMIL对南亚季风区大气季节内振荡向北传播的模拟

基于与NCEP资料结果的比较,研究了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的大气环流模式SAMIL对夏季南亚季风区季节内振荡（ISO）向北传播特征的模拟,并结合目前对ISO北传机制的理解对模拟结果进行了分析讨论。SAMIL在夏季南亚地区模拟出相当强度的季节内振荡的活动,并且模拟的ISO也表现出与NCEP资料相似的从赤道向北传播的特征,但传播的速度要慢于NCEP资料的结果。模拟的北传ISO具有与NCEP资料相似的结构特征,涡度和水汽场明显的呈经向不对称,涡度和水汽的正异常位于ISO对流的北面,最大的上升运动和最强的行星边界层辐合也位于ISO对流的北面。ISO 结构的经向不对称性正是模式模拟的ISO具有向北传播特征的原因;而模式对夏季南亚季风区高低层风场和行星边界层水汽的合理模拟起了关键的作用。同时,根据关于ISO北传机理的已有研究,模式的结果也表明南亚地区夏季风场的垂直结构是那里ISO向北传播的重要机制。     

鲁西北连续两次强降水过程对比分析

利用各种观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日夜间和31日夜间鲁西北连续两天强降雨天气进行诊断和对比分析。结果表明:强降水产生在西风槽前和副热带高压边缘的偏南暖湿气流中,西风槽稳定少动,台风在东南沿海北上,副高加强北抬,为鲁西北连续两天的强降水提供了天气尺度背景。925hPa及以下的低层,来自于渤海的偏东气流和来自于华东沿海的东南气流同时向鲁西北强降水区输送水汽,低层比湿大,CAPE和K指数较高。第1次强降水产生在偏南气流的暖区中,降水强度大,维持时间短。第2次强降水期间,低层有冷空气锲入,把暖湿气流抬升,前期为对流性降水,中后期转为稳定性降水,降水强度小,维持时间较长。850hPa及以下倒槽式切变线和中尺度低涡环流是造成强降水的中尺度影响系统,近地面层来自于渤海的东北气流与来自于东南沿海的东南暖湿气流形成中尺度涡旋,产生气旋式辐合上升,触发对流不稳定能量释放。对流云团在鲁西北形成长形的中尺度对流系统(MCS),稳定少动,有明显的列车效应和后向传播特征。强降水具有较强的日变化,夜间发展增强,白天减弱。     

Two Northward Jumps of the Summertime Western Pacific Subtropical High and Their Associations with the Tropical SST Anomalies

Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean.     

副热带高压季节性北跳的诊断研究

用ＣＥＯＦ、功率谱，带通滤波等方法的１９８８年，１９９１年５￣７月逐日２．５°×２．５°５００ｈＰａ位势高度场资料对北半球副絷带高压季节性北跳进行了诊断研究，得出：副热带高压季节性北跳及西传是全球现象；副高发生季节性跳动的源主要位于阿拉海地区和中太平洋地区，汇主要位于东太平洋地区；副高的季节性跳动主要是扰动场的作用，低频振荡在副高的季节性跳动及西传中起举足轻重的作用，各年副高季节性跳动的差异是扰源     

4—6月MJO北传与东亚季风爆发的关系

大气季节内振荡(MJO)对东亚季风的活跃、推进和中断具有显著影响,然而其在东亚季风爆发中的作用一直没有得到深入探讨。利用经验正交函数(EOF)分解和超前滞后回归分析方法,探讨了1979—2011年4—6月MJO的北传与东亚季风爆发的关系。研究表明:4—6月MJO有两次明显的北传过程,分别发生在5月中旬和6月中旬。逐候向外长波辐射资料EOF分析的前两个模态对应了MJO的不同位相,可以表征MJO的向东向北传播。超前滞后回归分析表明,伴随MJO的北传,降水带北移、印度洋到我国南海地区西南风建立、西太平洋副热带高压撤出南海及南亚高压北抬,这些环流异常形势有利于东亚季风的爆发。进一步对PC1所确定的季风爆发候与其它5个季风爆发指数进行对比发现,在大多数年份中,PC1所确立的季风爆发候与其它指数相差2候以内,其中,与其它5个指数所表征的季风爆发时间严格一致的年份分别有15、10、11、10、12年,表明MJO对东亚季风的爆发具有普遍作用。