非平稳条件下北京市最大月降水量频率特征分析

为探究气候变化下极端降水的频率变化特征,基于北京市22个雨量站实测月降水量数据,以时间为协变量构建平稳和非平稳GEV模型,对北京市最大月降水量序列(极值降水序列)进行模拟和频率分析,并采用Bootstrap方法对频率分析结果的不确定性进行评价.结果表明:所有极值降水序列的最优概率分布模型均为非平稳GEV模型,该模型能够...     

Spectral Estimation of Irregularly Sampled Nonstationary Multidimensional Processes by Time-Varying Periodogram

A multidimensional version of the time varying periodogram has been developed. The estimation method based on the multidimensional time-varying periodogram has been applied to a nonstationary multidimensional storm model. This work proposes that the multidimensional time varying periodogram is capable of estimating nonstationary spectral density functions in space and time.     

高山峡谷地区大型地下洞室群非平稳人工地震动拟合

基于近场地震记录频谱分析,结合地震危险性分析得到的基岩场地反应谱,进行了高山峡谷地区大型地下洞室群的人工地震动加速度时程的合成。该方法使用三角级数迭加法,利用攀枝花地震动记录进行傅里叶变换,得到离散点的傅里叶幅值谱,选择两个卓越频率作为控制傅里叶谱的峰值控制点,通过反复迭代生成了初始人工地震波,根据高山峡谷地形进行了深度修正、基线校正和高频滤波,最终生成了可以用于FLAC和ABAQUS等数值分析软件的人工地震动加速度-时程。数值分析表明,此方法拟合的人工地震波可以较好地反映不同频谱对地下洞室群强震响应的影响。     

A probabilistic performance‐based approach for mitigating the seismic pounding risk between adjacent buildings

Existing design procedures for determining the separation distance between adjacent buildings subjected to seismic pounding risk are based on approximations of the buildings' peak relative displacement. These procedures are characterized by unknown safety levels and thus are not suitable for use within a performance‐based earthquake engineering framework. This paper introduces an innovative reliability‐based methodology for the design of the separation distance between adjacent buildings. The proposed methodology, which is naturally integrated into modern performance‐based design procedures, provides the value of the separation distance corresponding to a target probability of pounding during the design life of the buildings. It recasts the inverse reliability problem of the determination of the design separation distance as a zero‐finding problem and involves the use of analytical techniques in order to evaluate the statistics of the dynamic response of the buildings. Both uncertainty in the seismic intensity and record‐to‐record variability are taken into account. The proposed methodology is applied to several different buildings modeled as linear elastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) and multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems, as well as SDOF nonlinear hysteretic systems. The design separation distances obtained are compared with the corresponding estimates that are based on several response combination rules suggested in the seismic design codes and in the literature. In contrast to current seismic code design procedures, the newly proposed methodology provides consistent safety levels for different building properties and different seismic hazard conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastically supported cantilever beam subjected to nonstationary seismic excitation

The dynamic behaviour of bridge piers under seismic load is studied here in the context of random vibration. The earthquake excitation is modelled as white noise filtered by the Clough–Penzien filter in cascade with modulation accounting for intensity non-stationarity. The bridge pier modelled as an elastically supported cantilever beam witha lumped mass at the top. An analytical solution is presented for the response statistics, which may be used to develop probabilistic seismic response spectra for design. It is found that the first two modes of the pier approach to rigid-body motion when the stiffness of the elastic support decreases. Seismic responses increase with the top mass, resultingin significantly high displacement and shear but negligible moment at the top, and higher shear and moment at thebase. Lower stiffness of the elastic support increases the pier top displacement and moment responses, but may increase or reduce shear responses. The probabilistic spectrum of the relative displacement between the bridge superstructure and the pier top may depend on the two systems’ relative modal properties. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonstationary time series prediction by incorporating external forces

Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external forces of the observed system. Therefore, these external forces should be taken into account when reconstructing the climate dy- namics. This paper presents a novel technique in predicting nonstationary time series. The main difference of this new technique from some previous methods is that it incorporates the driving forces in the pre- diction model. To appraise its effectiveness, three prediction experiments were carried out using the data generated from some known classical dynamical models and a climate model with multiple external forces. Experimental results indicate that this technique is able to improve the prediction skill effectively.     

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。     

Time–frequency analysis to profile hydrological regimes: application to Haiti

Abstract

Comprehensive characterization of its flow rates is prerequisite to a proper understanding and water management of a given hydrological region. Several studies question the soundness of stationarity in time series and suggest the need for a quantification of the events and non-stationary features in flow rate time series. In this study, we combine statistical and time–frequency (TF) analyses to characterize and classify the flow rates of an understudied region, namely Haiti. Wavelet transforms and cyclostationarity analyses were combined with principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify three groups of hydrological regimes in the country, suggesting similar management: (1) relatively stable flow rates with TF behaviour; (2) periodic and strongly seasonal flow rates; and (3) unstable flow rates. We argue that the TF methodology can yield additional information in regard to flow events and multiscale behaviour, even for short records. Flow rate characterization would benefit from the exhaustive approach described here.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Toth     

利用二维恒虚警进行非均匀噪声背景下的目标检测

针对高频地波雷达中的非均匀噪声环境及各种干扰源时变的特点,提出构建一种时变白化滤波器。先对非均匀噪声环境进行白化处理,然后在一维恒虚警的基础上,采用一种基于多普勒频率和距离的二维恒虚警处理算法。实验结果表明,利用时变白化滤波进行处理后,再在距离和多普勒频率维同时进行恒虚警检测,可以得到较好的检测结果。     

Investigation of the thermal regime and subsurface properties of a tidally affected,variably saturated streambed

Temperature and moisture content in the variably saturated subsurface are two of the most important physical parameters that govern a wide variety of geochemical and ecological processes. An understanding of thermal and hydraulic processes and properties of transient vadose zones is therefore fundamental in the evaluation of such processes. Here, an investigation of the thermal regime and subsurface properties of a tidally affected, variably saturated streambed is presented. Field and laboratory measurements, as well as a forward numerical model, are jointly employed in the investigation. Temperature, soil moisture, surface level, and water level data were recorded in a transect perpendicular to a tidally driven stream. Frequency‐domain analysis of the subsurface temperature measurements revealed the rapid decay of the tidal temperature driver within the top ～30 cm of sediment. Several techniques were used to evaluate subsurface thermal and hydraulic properties, including thermal conductivity and the soil water retention curve. These properties were used to constrain a forward numerical model that included coupled treatment of relevant variable saturation thermal and hydraulic physics. Even though the investigated vadose zone is intermittent and relatively shallow ( 20 cm), the results illustrate how error can be introduced into heat‐transport calculations if unsaturated conditions are not taken into account.