中国省域人口空间结构特征及其对经济绩效的影响——基于实体城市的空间识别

基于LandScan全球人口和ESA全球土地利用数据,构建2000—2015年中国省域人口空间结构数据库,刻画省域人口空间结构的时空格局,进而运用面板固定效应法、两阶段最小二乘法和差分GMM法探索空间结构对省域经济绩效的影响及这种影响对不同规模省域的差异,最后从省会城市集聚（不）经济的角度分析其内在机制。结果发现：① 2000—2015年,中国所有省会城市的人口规模都得到了显著增加,省域人口空间结构存在单中心化的演变趋势,且中西部地区省域人口空间结构相对偏单中心化;② 对所有省份尤其是人口规模相对较小的省份而言,人口空间结构单中心化倾向于提高省域经济效率,而对人口规模相对大的省份,人口空间结构单中心化很可能不利于省域经济效率的提高;③ 省会城市自身已经初显集聚不经济的迹象。     

中国市域空间结构的特征及其影响因素

优化与重构人口的空间分布格局是当前国家战略决策的重点研究领域之一。首先,利用2000年和2010年人口普查数据,通过帕累托指数、赫芬达尔指数和首位比重指数刻画了中国城市市域空间结构的特征及其演化;其次,从自然地理、社会经济和政府干预3个方面系统地揭示了区域空间结构形成与演化的影响因素。结果表明：① 相对于胡焕庸线以西地区,胡焕庸线以东的市域更偏向多中心;中国市域空间结构相对稳定,有微弱的向多中心发展的趋势;②市域空间结构的形成主要受政府干预影响,自然地理和社会经济的作用相对较弱。具体而言,地表粗糙程度、城市行政等级和政府支出占比会推动区域空间结构朝单中心方向发展;而土地面积、县/县级市内国家级开发区个数、市域内政府间竞争以及人均公路里程则使得空间结构朝均衡的多中心方向演进。     

Changes to urban form and commuting patterns: trends in two Danish city regions

This paper compares indicators of polycentricity in a monocentric (MUR) and a polycentric urban region (PUR) in Denmark at two points in time (1982 and 2002). It describes how population, jobs and commuting indicators of polycentricity develop and interact over time. Both the MUR and the PUR tend towards more balanced development. The increasing size of the main node in the PUR is the only deviation from the general trend. The general tendency towards a more polycentric regional structure was most marked in changing interaction and commuting patterns. Inter-urban commuting increased, while intra-urban commuting decreased, leading to dispersion of commuters and a rapid increase in commuting across the region. Commuting distances were shortest in the polycentric region, but it also had the highest growth rates. In both regions, the balancing trend leads to a dispersal of commuting demand over an increasingly complex web of origins and destination nodes. This tendency compels us to question whether people’s choice of residence is becoming increasingly irrelevant to their place of work. In relation to polycentricity and sustainability, this calls into question the degree to which proximity can be a valuable ‘asset’ in terms of planning sustainable transport outcomes connecting residence, jobs and service.     

Are major canadian city-regions monocentric,polycentric, or dispersed?

Relatively little research has explored spatial structure in modern major Canadian regions. Three common models are monocentricity, polycentricity, and dispersion, but these are not always mutually exclusive in the complex spatial structures of contemporary city-regions. Shifts between these models are discussed in the context of three explanations of economic growth and restructuring: accessibility, municipal competition, and globalization. All three explanations suggest a trend away from monocentricity. While this appears clearly in US cities, disagreement surrounds whether Canadian cities are following the same path. This study uses cross-sectional data from InfoGroup in 2011 to estimate the relative strengths of monocentricity, polycentricity, and dispersion for characterizing eight major regions. Results indicate that elements of each model are evident in all eight study regions, but each tends to dominate in different contexts. When focusing on Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, results imply that all three forces which guide spatial structure play a role and that job centers appear to play a particularly important structural role in larger regions.     

The typology of the American metropolis: monocentricity,polycentricity, or generalized dispersion?

Although the spatial structure of employment in large US metropolitan regions is a well-researched topic, few studies focus on medium-sized and small US metropolitan regions. Consequently, there is no overall typology relating small-to-medium urban form to employment distribution. We address this gap by investigating the spatial structure of employment in 356 metropolitan regions. We conceptualize six typologies based on three categories that have overlapping properties: “monocentricity,” “polycentricity,” and “generalized dispersion.” The study has three main findings. First, the three types of urban form that we identify as “hybrid” outnumber the three “pure” types by almost four to one. Second, job dispersion is a dominant characteristic in almost 70% of all metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) (including the hybrid types), and polycentricity (56.7% of MSAs) is somewhat more common than monocentricity. Third, there is a strong relationship between population size and density. The population of medium-sized metropolitan areas is generally more dispersed than that of small and large metropolitan areas. Polycentricy emerges mostly in large metropolitan regions, while monocentrity is found in both small and large metropolitan regions.     

中国城市群空间结构的演化与影响因素——基于人口分布的形态单中心—多中心视角

城市群是未来中国城镇化的主要空间载体,研究城市群空间结构的演化特征和影响因素具有重要意义。已有文献较少从形态单中心—多中心视角研究中国城市群空间结构的演化和影响因素,而且通常采用户籍人口而非常住人口测度城市群空间结构,导致测量误差。为解决这个问题,本文采用基于人口普查的常住人口数据进行分析,并运用联合国数据对结果进行佐证。以已有文献采用客观标准界定的13个城市群为样本,使用规模-位序法则测度城市群的形态单中心—多中心程度,探究城市群的空间结构演化趋势和影响因素。结果发现,1980年代以来大多数城市群的空间结构呈现多中心化趋势;人均GDP水平的提高和人口规模的增加是导致城市群空间结构多中心化的主要原因。因此,政府对于空间结构偏多中心的城市群,应强化城市间的交通联系和政策一体化,获取更大的发展红利;对于个别处于单中心化阶段的城市群,政策导向则避免过早地多中心化。