自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

基于贡献权重叠加法的滑坡风险区划

贡献权重叠加法是对滑坡本底因子和承灾体因子在滑坡发育中的贡献率进行统计后,通过贡献率均值化、规一化处理,利用权重转换模型计算出每一个因子内部的权重——自权重和因子相互之间的权重——互权重。将滑坡因子、承灾体因子和两者的自权重、互权重分别相乘叠加,得到滑坡危险度和易损度区划结果,再将2项结果相乘得出滑坡风险区划结果。     

Rifting to Spreading Process along the Northern Continental Margin of the South China Sea

Understanding the development from syn-rift to spreading in the South China Sea (SCS) is important in elucidating the western Pacific's tectonic evolution because the SCS is a major tectonic constituent of the many marginal seas in the region. This paper describes research examining the transition from rifting to spreading along the northern margin of the SCS, made possible by the amalgamation of newly acquired and existing geophysical data. The northernmost SCS was surveyed as part of a joint Japan-China cooperative project (JCCP) in two phases in 1993 and 1994. The purpose of the investigation was to reveal seismic and magnetic characteristics of the transitional zone between continental crust and the abyssal basin. Compilation of marine gravity and geomagnetic data of the South China Sea clarify structural characteristics of its rifted continental and convergent margins, both past and present. Total and three component magnetic data clearly indicate the magnetic lineations of the oceanic basin and the magnetic characteristics of its varied margins. The analyses of magnetic, gravity and seismic data and other geophysical and geological information from the SCS led up to the following results: (1) N-S direction seafloor spreading started from early Eocene. There were at least four separate evolutional stages. Directions and rates of the spreading are fluctuating and unstable and spreading continued from 32 to 17 Ma. (2) The apparent difference in the present tectonism of the eastern and western parts of Continent Ocean Boundary (COB) implies that in the east of the continental breakup is governed by a strike slip faulting. (3) The seismic high velocity layer in the lower crust seems to be underplated beneath the stretched continental crust. (4) Magnetic anomaly of the continental margin area seems to be rooted in the uppermost sediment and upper part of lower crust based on the tertiary volcanism. (5) Magnetic quiet zone (MQZ) anomaly in the continental margin area coincides with COB. (6) The non-magnetic or very weakly magnetized layer is probably responsible for MQZ. One of the causes of demagnetization of the layer is due to hydrothermal alteration while high temperature mantle materials being underplated. Another explanation is that horizontal sequences of basalt each with flip-flop magnetization polarity cancel out to the resultant magnetic field on the surface. We are currently developing a synthetic database system containing datasets of seismicity, potential field data, crustal and thermal structures, and other geophysical data to facilitate the study of past, contemporary and future changes in the deep sea environment around Japan; i.e. trench, trough, subduction zones, marginal basins and island arcs. Several special characteristics are an object-oriented approach to the collection and multi-faceted studies of global data from a variety of sources.     

东海浮游翼足类(Pteropods)数量分布的研究

根据1997～2000年东海海域23°30'～33°00'N,118°30'～128°00'E的4个季节海洋调查资料,运用定量、定性方法,探讨了东海浮游翼足类总丰度的平面分布、季节变化及变化的动力学机制.结果表明,东海翼足类总丰度和出现频率有明显的季节变化,均为秋季最高,夏季次之,春季最低;总丰度在各个季节基本上呈东海南部高于北部、外海高于近海的分布趋势;春季的尖笔帽螺(Creseis acicula)、夏季的锥笔帽螺(Creseis virgula)、秋季的蝴蝶螺(Desmopterus papilio)和冬季的马蹄螔螺(Limacina trochiformis)是导致总丰度季节变化的最主要的种类;冬、春和夏3个季节丰度变化及4季总丰度的变化同表层或10m层水温有非常显著的线性相关关系,与底层温度及盐度的相关关系不显著.夏季翼足类高丰度区位于台湾暖流与黑潮暖流的分支处;从夏季到秋季,翼足类随着台湾暖流向北扩展,并在与长江冲淡水,闽浙沿岸水团,黄海水团等交汇处形成高丰度(大于500×10-2个/m3)和较高丰度(250×10-2～500×10-2个/m3)分布区.水温和海流是影响东海翼足类总丰度分布的主要环境因素.     

A preliminary study of carbon system in the East China Sea

In the central part of the East China Sea, the activity of CO₂ in the surface water and total carbonate, pH and alkalinity in the water column were determined in winter and autumn of 1993. The activity of CO₂ in the continental shelf water was about 50 ppm lower than that of surface air. This decrease corresponds to the absorption of about 40 gC/m²/yr of atmospheric CO₂ in the coastal zone or 1 GtC/yr in the global continental shelf, if this rate is applicable to entire coastal seas. The normalized total carbonate contents were higher in the water near the coast and near the bottom. This increase toward the bottom may be due to the organic matter deposited on the bottom. This conclusion is supported by the distribution of pH. The normalized alkalinity distribution also showed higher values in the near-coast water, but in the surface water, indicating the supply of bicarbonate from river water. The residence time of the East China Sea water, including the Yellow Sea water, has been calculated to be about 0.8 yr from the excess alkalinity and the alkalinity input. Using this residence time and the excess carbonate, we can estimate that the amount of dissolved carbonate transported from the coastal zone to the oceanic basin is about 70 gC/m²/yr or 2 GtC/yr/area-of-global-continental-shelf. This also means that the rivers transport carbon to the oceans at a rate of 30 gC/m²/yr of the coastal sea or 0.8 GtC/yr/ area-of-global shelf, the carbon consisting of dissolved inorganic carbonate and terrestrial organic carbon decomposed on the continental shelf.     

耿贝尔逻辑模型在极值风速和有效波高联合概率分布中的应用

首先介绍了耿贝尔逻辑模型，采用该模型对南海海域的涠州岛海洋站的风速和有效波高实测数据进行了分析，结果表明耿贝尔逻辑模型较好地描述了年极值风速和有效波高两随机变量的联合分布；采用得到的极值风浪联合概率分布推算了不同重现期的极值风速和波高，表明考虑风速和波高相关性对设计荷载的确定有显著影响。由于耿贝尔逻辑模型具有函数结构简单，参数估计方便，因此有望成为极值风速和波高联合分布的较理想概率模型。     

基于贡献权重迭加法的滑坡风险区划

贡献权重迭加法是对滑坡本底因子和承灾体因子在滑坡发育中的贡献率进行统计后,通过贡献率均值化、规一化处理,利用权重转换模型计算出每一个因子内部的权重——自权重W和因子相互之间的权重——互权重W＇。将滑坡因子、承灾体因子和两者的自权重、互权重分别相乘迭加,得到滑坡危险度和易损度区划结果,再将2项结果相乘得出滑坡风险区划。     

小波边缘分析建模波阻抗反演方法在煤层解释中的应用

受限于地震波主波长的1／4,常规地震处理难以分辨较薄煤层。基于模型的波阻抗反演虽然克服了厚、薄煤层计算问题．但因难以得到准确的高频部分,很多情况下反演结果的精度和分辨率往往不能满足地质预测的要求。小波边缘分析建模波阻抗反演方法是从地震数据中提取地震特征参数,用于建模并参与迭代反演。该方法即可以弥补反演过程中高频成分的误差,减少对钻井数据的依赖程度,得到较为合理的初始模型,又可提高反演的精度和分辨率．使反演结果更好的反映实际地下地质情况。利用该方法,对大井-将军庙及新疆红沙泉2个勘探区的侏罗系中统西山窑组含煤地层进行波阻抗反演,反演结果与钻井资料进行比较,其中大井一将军庙0802及0809号孔单煤层厚度误差分别为3％、8％．新疆红沙泉多煤层厚度及煤层之间的夹层厚度预测结果除B6煤层误差较大外,其它误差均小于7％．可见该反演方法的计算结果比较准确。     

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

中国耕地有机质含量变化对土地生产力影响的定量研究

在土地持续利用与管理研究中，土地质量变化对土地生产力影响的定量研究是核心内容之一。借助新古典经济学的生产函数法，构建了我国耕地的生产函数模型，定量模拟了我国耕地有机质含量变化的边际产出率性和边际生产力。初步结果表明，由于我国长期存在耕过度利用导致有机质含量及肥力下降问题，当前提高耕地质量的增产潜力十分可观。