Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.     

Quantitative Tectonic Markers of Large Coastal Earthquakes in Fujian, Guangdong, Taiwan and Hainan——with a Discussion of Qualitative Indicators

This paper expounds the quantitative tectonic indicators and some qualitative indicators of large earthquakes in the coast areas of Fujian, Guangdong, Taiwan and Hainan. The main quantitative indicators include uplift amplitude of the Moho, Quaternary and Late Holocene coasts. The paper also gives a brief account of the research method on quantitative indicators of surface uplifted zones. Taiwan is a famous neotectonic zone and an area of large earthquakes in the world. There is only one large-earthquake area in each of Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan Provinces. Along the coast large earthquake areas there are certainly many remains of crustal activity. Among these remains, coast activity, taking the sea level as the accurate marker horizon, can determine not only the amplitude of coastal elevation and subsidence in a certain period, but also the cycle and rate of positive or negative movements.     

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.     

绿松石与铀矿找矿方向的研究

概述了绿松石矿在国内的分布和成矿特征，并根据秦岭地区绿松石与铀矿化在成因上的联系，进一步总结了找矿方向和找矿标志。认为此类矿床以次生淋滤型为主，多沿古陆边缘分布，并受北西向断裂带控制     

长株潭近地表大气尘矿物特征及环境指示意义

通过X射线粉末衍射(XRD)、扫描电镜/能谱(SEM/EDX)方法对长沙、株洲和湘潭(以下简称长株潭)地区近地表大气尘中矿物成份进行分析研究,结果显示大气尘中含有石英、石膏、方解石、白云石、硫酸镉等23种自然矿物,还含有SiS2、Cadmium Arsenide(Cd3As2)、RhZn、Cr2Nb、NiTi、HfMo2等14种非自然矿物;近地表大气尘矿物形貌特征显示Cd元素主要富集在有矿物颗粒的地方,且呈近浸染状分布,能谱半定量分析,Cd含量可达4%,表明Cd易被吸附在矿物表面。分析长株潭地区大气尘中矿物成份、空间分布特征及其来源,对长株潭城市一体化具有及其重要的环境指导意义。     

古大气CO2浓度重建方法技术研究现状

温室气候引起的全球气候变暖越来越引起人们的关注,大气中不断上升的CO2浓度被认为是导致气候变暖的主要因素.地史时期大气CO2浓度变化与温室气候可能存在类似的关系,可提供参考,因而古大气CO2浓度重建是首要任务.总结近年来古大气CO2浓度重建的进展,重点介绍GEOCARB模型模拟、植物叶片气孔参数和同位素指针的方法和技术.GEOCARB模型是反映全球古大气CO2浓度长期变化的碳相关模型;气孔参数方法是使用气孔比例来估计古大气CO2浓度;同位素指针包括成壤碳酸盐、浮游植物有机质生物标记物、钙质浮游有孔虫、古苔藓植物等,其中成壤碳酸盐碳同位素方法使用最为广泛.国内只是在叶片参数研究方面有一些进展,古大气CO2浓度重建工作任重而道远.     

新疆伽师砂岩型铜矿地质特征及找矿标志

新疆伽师砂岩型铜矿区位于塔里木盆地西北缘柯坪古生代前陆盆地西南,北部以哈拉峻-阿合奇断裂为界,与南天山晚古生代陆缘盆地相邻,是塔里木北缘的一个陆内海盆。砂岩铜矿赋存于一套主要由褐红色-红色砂岩、粉砂岩、砂质泥岩及泥岩组成的红色砂岩建造中,其中夹有浅灰色砂岩层,铜矿化即发育于浅灰色砂岩中。含矿层长3km,厚4-6m,共发现有3条矿体。其中Ⅰ号矿体长650m,厚2．21～5．13m,平均厚度3．93m,Ⅱ号矿体长190m,厚2-4m;Ⅲ号矿体长100m,平均厚度3．37m。通过对矿区的地层、构造,铜矿体的规模、形态、产状的分析认为,古近系的浅灰色钙质砂岩为找矿的最有利层位;孔雀石化的含岩屑钙质细砂岩转石是找矿的直接标志;膏岩建造一般位于含矿层的底部,石膏层为明显的找矿标志。     

湖泊生态系统的水鸟监测意义

水鸟的多样性及其变化趋势是保护水鸟必需的信息,也是其柄息湿地环境质量的指示因子之一.本文综述了水鸟与湖泊生态系统关系的研究成果,认为水鸟的物种多样性与丰富度可以快速反映湖泊的水生植物、鱼类的生物量和湖泊水位、营养状况的变化,集群繁殖的食鱼水鸟可用于湖泊生态系统中持久性有毒化学污染物的生态监测;同时阐述了水鸟通过取食水生...     

Taxonomic distinctness of macrofauna as an ecological indicator in Laizhou Bay and adjacent waters

In this paper, we assessed the ecological and biodiversity status in the Bohai Sea through a quantitative survey on mac-rofaunal community at 25 stations in Laizhou Bay and adjacent waters in the autumn of 2006.We tested the robustness and effectiveness of taxonomic distinctness as an ecological indictor by analyzing its correlation with species richness and natural environmental variables and by analyzing other ecological indicators (Shannon-Wiener H' and W statistics from Abundance Biomass Comparison curve).Results so obtained indicated that the benthic environment of the study waters in general is not under major impact of anthropogenic disturbance, but some stations in Laizhou Bay and along the coast of the Shandong Peninsula and even in the central Bohai Sea might be moderately disturbed and showed signs of ecological degradation.The taxonomic distinctness measures △+ and Λ+ were independent of sampling effort and natural environment factors and were compliant to other ecological indicators.Further application of the taxonomic distinctness indicator to assess marine biodiversity and ecosystem health on a larger regional scale with historical data seems promising.     

基于精确Zoeppritz方程的储层含油气性预测方法

流体指示因子和泊松比作为重要的指标参数在储层含油气性预测中发挥着至关重要的作用,大量学者开展了这两个参数的直接反演研究.然而,现有反演方法主要是以精确Zoeppritz方程的近似公式为正演方程,近似公式诸多的假设条件及较低的计算精度极大地限制了这类方法在复杂储层的应用效果.因此,为了提升储层含油气性预测精度,文中提出了一种新的基于精确Zoeppritz方程的流体因子和泊松比反演方法.首先,借助敏感流体因子定量分析法对现有流体指示因子进行优选,并将传统形式的精确Zoeppritz方程改写为包含该优选流体指示因子和泊松比的新形式.然后,基于新方程构建贝叶斯理论框架下的非线性反演目标函数.同时,为了进一步提升流体因子和泊松比对储层的刻画精度,在假设背景先验模型服从高斯分布的同时引入服从微分拉普拉斯分布的块约束项.最后,借助泰勒级数展开对上述非线性目标函数进行求解.合成数据和油田数据验证结果表明新方法能够稳定合理地估计流体指示因子和泊松比,且精度远高于基于近似公式的传统方法.此外,实际数据测试表明新方法能够有效提升储层含油气性预测精度,降低不确定性.