新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析

运用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法对塔里木河三源流的年径流序列进行了分析。结果表明:阿克苏河与叶儿羌河的突变点在1993年,而和田河在1978年;阿克苏河径流呈显著增加趋势而叶儿羌河增加不显著,结合其Hurst指数可知,在未来阿克苏河仍将保持增加走势而叶尔羌河将转变为减少;和田河径流呈轻微的减少趋势,其Hurst指数接近于0.5,具有随机性,不可做长程预测;阿克苏河在6、18、22 a周期性明显,和田河主周期为9和17 a,而叶尔羌河在3、9、13和17 a处周期性明显。     

塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探

基于1957~2003年塔里木河流域源流区长期监测资料,分析塔里木河流域源流区的主要河流年径流量和相应气温、降水变化的特点,探讨流域内气候变化与水资源量变化的关系。利用非参数检验的方法,分析温度、降水变化与径流量变化的关联性和一致性。结果显示:在塔里木河流域源流区,温度在0.05水平上呈现单调递增的趋势,降水则表现为不显著增加的走势,而径流量基本均出现了递增现象;从参数检验和非参数分析的结果看,温度升高与径流量增加的关联趋势更明显。     

High‐ and low‐flow variations in annual runoff and their response to climate change in the headstreams of the Tarim River,Xinjiang, China

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data recorded for the northern and southern headstreams of the Tarim River over the last 50 years, this paper analyses the variation characteristics of high‐flow and low‐flow indexes of annual runoff, air temperature and precipitation using a non‐parametric test. Additionally, this paper also studies the correlations between these three time series on multiple time scales for both northern and southern headstreams employing wavelet analysis. The results show the following: (i) the annual runoff and air temperature had significant increasing trends, whereas precipitation had a non‐significant increasing trend for the northern and southern headstreams. (ii) Abrupt changes appeared in precipitation in the north and south in 1990 and 1986, as well as in high‐flow and low‐flow indexes of annual runoff in 1993 and in air temperature in 1996. (iii) In the case of the northern headstreams, there was significant periodicity of 6 years in both high‐flow and low‐flow indexes and air temperature and of 3 and 8 years in precipitation. In the case of the southern headstreams, there was significant periodicity of 3 and 9 years in high‐flow and low‐flow indexes, 5 years in air temperature, and 5 and 8 years in precipitation. (iv) The high‐flow and low‐flow indexes in the headstreams of the Tarim River are closely related to the air temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.