Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

THE NEW INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR AND DEBT CRISIS IN THE THIRD WORLD

The advanced capitalist ccuntries are undergoing an industrial devolution as remarkable as the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century. The removal of high-paying jobs through automation and geographical migration destroys the main market of the center and precipitates debt crises in newly industrialized countries of the periphery which have followed export-oriented growth policies. This results in a new, internationalized form of the crises of iate capitalism and provides a new institutional foucs for crisis in the international banks. The paper examines this global process from the perspective of the geography of class struggle.     

GPS中BOC调制的FPGA实现

GPS系统中提出了一种新的信号形式,二进制偏移载波(BOC)调制是这种新的信号形式产生的技术关键。首先介绍了BOC调制的定义及其频谱特性,然后阐述了基于FPGA(现场可编程门阵列)硬件平台的BOC调制实现方法,并给出了仿真波形。结果表明,该实现方法是值得提倡的。     

Palaeoenvironmental significance of Late Permian palaeosols in the South‐Eastern Iberian Ranges,Spain

The Late Permian (Wuchiapingian) Alcotas Formation in the SE Iberian Ranges consists of one red alluvial succession where abundant soil profiles developed. Detailed petrographical and sedimentological studies in seven sections of the Alcotas Formation allow six different types of palaeosols, with distinctive characteristics and different palaeogeographical distribution, to be distinguished throughout the South‐eastern Iberian Basin. These characteristics are, in turn, related to topographic, climatic and tectonic controls. The vertical distribution of the palaeosols is used to differentiate the formation in three parts from bottom to top showing both drastic and gradual vertical upwards palaeoenvironmental changes in the sections. Reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental conditions based on palaeosols provides evidence for understanding the events that occurred during the Late Permian, some few millions of years before the well‐known Permian‐Triassic global crisis.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Observation of clouds and solar radiation over the Pacific Ocean as relation to global climate

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冰心中的气候环境记录与全球变化研究

冰心是高分辨地记录全球变化的主要信息载体之一。本文总结了冰心中提取古气候和古环境信息的系列记录，包括同位素、微量气体、阴阳离子、微粒、生物和有机质等。着重讨论了由这些记录提取的古气候和古环境变化方面的研究进展，并提出了今后的研究重点。     

地球信息科学的研究与发展

信息时代的召唤,地球信息科学应运而生.经过10a左右的发展,地理信息科学已见雏形.总结了10a来地球信息科学的研究结果,并介绍了地球信息科学的研究内容和发展前景.     

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change

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