Multi-causal pathways of public opposition to dam projects in Asia: A fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)

Scholars overwhelmingly adopt the case study method when analyzing causal conditions inducing anti-dam-protests. We have carried out the first medium-N-study on this topic analyzing public opposition to 12 dam projects in Asia. For this purpose, we employ a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) which is based on a thorough review of scholarly writings and press reports on the dam projects at question as well as an online survey and semi-structured interviews. We identify two causal recipes sufficient for the emergence of significant anti-dam-protests. First, lacking social safeguards in combination with the presence of political opportunity structures and higher levels of development are sufficient for significant anti-dam-protests to emerge. Second, lacking social safeguards in combination with rampant corruption and environmental risk induce these protests. Current scholarly literature particuarly emphasizes political opportunity structures and development as causal conditions inducing significant protests. Our findings build on this literature to highlight the importance of project-specific conditions.     

海上风电场区位分布的动态演进和影响因素研究

为应对能源安全和气候变化,培育新兴产业,我国大力发展海上风电产业。经过十余年发展,海上风电累计装机总量已跃居全球首位,但在这一过程中,风电场的区位分布表现出显著的时空异质性,即随着时间推移,其经历一个由江苏到福建、广东、山东等地动态演化的过程,研究不同阶段影响区位分布的主导因素及其变化,对政府制定有效政策以促进产业发展具有重要意义。根据国家发布的政策文件以及中国风能协会等公布的数据,本文划分了海上风电发展阶段,采用动态偏离-份额拓展模型来测度产业转移以揭示区位分布的演进;进一步将模糊集定性比较分析法与地理探测器模型结合,从动态的角度分析了产业发展各阶段区位分布的主导因素及其变化,并剖析了增长突出省区市的发展路径及其差异化。研究表明,发展初期,海上风电场区位分布受政府扶持力度和自然因素的影响较多,随着产业发展及技术进步,创新环境与专业人才逐渐成为关键因素,典型的发展路径有政策驱动型、水域-政策驱动型、风能驱动型、创新-知识型、知识-政策驱动型等。进一步加快人才培养、完善产业链条、优化扶持方式应成为推动产业健康持续发展的努力方向。     

Are large-scale hydroelectric dams inherently undemocratic?

Construction of large-scale hydroelectric dams has increased in recent decades in the Global South and emerging economies. Population resettlement is one of the most severe socioeconomic impacts caused by dam construction. Processes aiming to mitigate its impacts and restore livelihoods are often described as inadequate. The resettlement process’ ineffectiveness could be explained by persistent deficiency in citizen participation, which is also a sign of the impacted population not being able to participate in the process affecting their lives. Our research presents a medium-N comparative study showing the pathways explaining deficiency of participation across 23 large-scale hydroelectric dams in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We conducted a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis based on information from a qualitative meta-analysis and secondary sources. Our results suggest that there are at least two scenarios to explain deficiency in participation. The first scenario includes dams constructed during autocracies, mostly before the release of the World Commission on Dams guidelines. The second scenario involves the largest dams in our analysis, with high economic and political interests at stake built under both autocratic and democratic regimes, despite the presence of what we categorized as effective forms of public opposition to the project and resettlement process. We discuss features that make large hydroelectric dams less participatory or inherently undemocratic in the Global South.