Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.     

Assessing soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes of Lebanon using remote sensing and GIS

Maps showing the potential for soil erosion at 1:100,000 scale are produced in a study area within Lebanon that can be used for evaluating erosion of Mediterranean karstic terrain with two different sets of impact factors built into an erosion model. The first set of factors is: soil erodibility, morphology, land cover/use and rainfall erosivity. The second is obtained by the first adding a fifth factor, rock infiltration. High infiltration can reflect high recharge, therefore decreasing the potential of surface runoff and hence the quantity of transported materials. Infiltration is derived as a function of lithology, lineament density, karstification and drainage density, all of which can be easily extracted from satellite imagery. The influence of these factors is assessed by a weight/rate approach sharing similarities between quantitative and qualitative methods and depending on pair-wise comparison matrix.The main outcome was the production of factorial maps and erosion susceptibility maps (scale 1:100,000). Spatial and attribute comparison of erosion maps indicates that the model that includes a measure of rock infiltration better represents erosion potential. Field investigation of rills and gullies shows 87.5% precision of the model with rock infiltration. This is 17.5% greater than the precision of the model without rock infiltration. These results indicate the necessity and importance of integrating information on infiltration of rock outcrops to assess soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes.     

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。     

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.     

柴达木盆地昆特依盐湖的地球化学演化与古气候变化

１９９０年用铀系年代学及古地磁对昆特依盐湖沉积物进行年代测定，探讨该湖区地球化学演化与古气候变化关系。结果表明，该区最老的盐层形成于早更新世晚期（大于７３０ｋａ），大量的盐类沉积则始于３００ｋａ左右；盐湖沉积物中元素含量变化主要受古盐度、矿物、类质同象和吸附控制；沉积物水溶Ｆ／Ｃｌ比值与古盐度成反比关系；该湖２０００ｋａ以来的古环境演变：盐层形成于干冷、偏酸性的氧化环境，泥岩层形成于湿暖、偏碱性的     

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。     

新世纪大洋钻探"三角鼎立"中的欧洲联合体

欧洲为了与美国、日本在IODP中处于同等重要的地位，成立了由ODP成员参加的欧洲大洋钻探科学指导委员会（ESCOD）和JEODI组织，并开展了IODP之前的一系列准备活动。在其中的APLACON会议上，论证了IODP中第三类特定钻探平台的必要性，讨论了该类平台在某些研究范围内的重要作用，包括研究地球历史中的极端气候（北极海区）、重建白垩纪－第三纪的水文地理学、气候的快速变化、沉积盆地形成与过程以及固体地球过程等。     

Post-Miocene stratigraphy and depositional environments of valley-fill sequences at the mouth of Tampa Bay, Florida

Post-Miocene sea-level low stands allowed rivers and karst processes to incise the exposed carbonate platform along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Few Miocene to mid-Pleistocene deposits survived erosion along the present coast except within incised valleys. Since their formation, these valleys have been filled and incised multiple times in response to sea-level changes. The thick sedimentary sequences underlying the mouth of Tampa Bay have been recorded as a range of depositional environments and multiple sea-level incursions and excursions during pre-Holocene time and subsequent to the accumulation of the Miocene carbonate sequences. Sediment analysis of cores collected from a north–south transect across the mouth of Tampa Bay has enabled the identification of lithofacies, ranging from well-sorted, quartz sand to dense, fossiliferous, phosphatic grainstone. These facies were deposited in freshwater, estuarine, and shallow, open marine environments. As a result of channel development and migration within the paleovalley, and cut-and-fill associated with individual transgressions and regressions, correlation of the lithofacies does not extend across the entire transect. Fining-upward sequences truncated by tidal ravinement surfaces that extend throughout the paleovalley can, however, be identified. Age determinations based on 14-C analysis, amino-acid racemization, and strontium isotope analysis dating of numerous samples yield ages of Miocene, Pliocene, early Pleistocene, and late Pleistocene, as well as Holocene for sequences that accumulated and were preserved in this valley-fill complex. Numerous inconsistencies in the stratigraphic organization of the age determinations indicate that there are bad dates, considerable reworking of shells that were dated, or both. For this reason as well as the lack of detailed correlation among the three relatively complete cores, it is not possible to place these strata in a sequence stratigraphic framework.