祁连山区天然草原退化原因分析与可持续利用对策

天然草原是畜牧业发展的重要物质基础，由于缺乏有效的制度安排和技术创新，人类无节制的赢利活动加剧了草原退化，导致了西部生态环境的恶化。论文以祁连山区的肃南县为例，通过对天然草原退化现状的调查研究，剖析了祁连山区草原生态环境保护与经济发展之间的突出问题和草原退化的深层原因，提出了天然草原永续利用的对策。     

Entrepreneurial causation and effectuation logics in a regional context: Assessing the importance of population density

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to assess whether an entrepreneurial causation or effectuation logic is a function of geographical location in densely populated economic regions versus sparsely populated economic regions. A causation logic implies that the entrepreneur primarily focuses on a predefined goal and further aims to identify the means to reach that goal. By contrast, an effectuation logic implies that the entrepreneur to a larger extent focuses on the means at hand, which she or he aims at materialising into one or more goals that are not necessarily predefined. The empirical data for the study are based on an investigation and evaluation of Norwegian entrepreneurs in business incubation that are located in many different economic regions of the country. Multilevel regression analyses showed that geographical location in sparsely populated economic regions is associated with a causation logic, whereas a location in densely populated economic regions is associated with an effectuation logic. An implication of the article is that entrepreneurial stakeholders, such as policymakers, incubator managers, public and private partners, and entrepreneurs themselves should be aware of differences in causation and effectuation logics between entrepreneurs located in densely versus sparsely populated economic regions.     

海州湾海域赤潮灾害与成因探讨

2004～2006年海州湾海域共发生有记录的赤潮7起,涉及海域面积近2000 km2,海洋生态环境受到严重威胁.本文根据近年来海州湾赤潮发生的情况和相关资料,阐述了海州湾赤潮的发生及其影响、赤潮主要藻种,从物理、化学、气候、生物等因素上分析和讨论了海州湾赤潮发生的原因,并在此基础上提出了相应的防治对策:(1)加强赤潮的研究工作;(2)控制陆源污染物的入海,防止海水富营养化;(3)加强赤潮监测.     

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2004 AND THE CAUSATION

In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2004 and analyzed their causation. Compared with the normal, the annual frequency of TC in 2004 was slightly higher, tropical cyclones in 2004 had a longer life span and occurred in a concentrated period, the source of TC were situated eastward; in all tracks of TC, the recurvature tracks took up larger proportion, the landfall regions of TC were located northward, which concentrated from East China to Japan. The primary causes were revealed as follows. Firstly, the intensity and area of the western North Pacific subtropical high was stronger and larger than usual respectively, and its ridge was frequently in the form of cells and stretched northwestward. Secondly, the convergence of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) was reinforced and the convergence zone moved more eastward than average. Thirdly, the meridionality of the westerlies was larger than average and the cell-shaped ridge formed a saddle region, which is in favor of TC northward motion and recurature.     

行政赔偿因果关系的认定规则初探

行政赔偿因果关系的认定,直接关系到国家赔偿法效能的发挥.现实中,行政赔偿之所以陷入困境,其中一个重要原因是行政赔偿因果关系的认定缺乏标准.应从行政管理的规律出发,把握行政法律关系的特征,着眼于行政法未来的发展趋势,从充分发挥行政赔偿的内在功能入手,兼顾国家现实的赔偿能力及当前的法制人文环境,从理论上建立可供司法实践操作的行政赔偿因果关系认定规则.     

历年影响广西沿海的热带气旋及其灾害成因分析(英文)

登陆或经过广西沿海的热带气旋是一种严重的自然灾害,每年热带气旋所伴随的大风、大雨、风暴潮等灾害造成沿海地区严重的财产损失或人员伤亡。通过对1950~2012年影响广西沿海的热带气旋的统计分析发现,影响广西沿海的热带气旋数量年际变化明显,最多的年份达9个,最少的年份为0个;热带气旋季节分布具有明显规律性,每年的7、8、9三个月为影响高峰月,其次为6、10月;热带气旋从菲律宾以东洋面进入南海后穿过海南省和雷州半岛再次登陆广西沿海的次数最多,该类热带气旋引起的风暴增水平均值为111.2 cm,到达非登陆台风增水的2.6倍。风暴潮灾害的形成与强台风天气系统、全日大潮、河流下泄洪水直接有关。强台风产生巨浪及降雨,使入海河口水位上升,与风暴潮叠加后产生明显的增水,造成巨大的潮灾。     

历年影响广西沿海的热带气旋及其灾害成因分析

通过对1950-2012年影响广西沿海的热带气旋的统计分析发现,影响广西沿海的热带气旋数量年际变化明显,最多的年份达9个,最少的年份为0个;热带气旋季节分布具有明显规律性,每年的7、8、9三个月为影响高峰月,其次为6、10月;热带气旋从菲律宾以东洋面进入南海后穿过海南省和雷州半岛再次登陆广西沿海的次数最多,该类热带气旋引起的风暴增水平均值为111.2 cm,到达非登陆台风增水的2.6倍。风暴潮灾害的形成与强台风天气系统、全日大潮、河流下泄洪水直接有关。强台风产生巨浪及降雨,使入海河口水位上升,与风暴潮叠加后产生明显的增水,造成巨大的潮灾。     

Multi-level climate adaptation policy and causation narratives

Climate adaptation policies are meant to reduce the negative consequences of the impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change, and in turn their success often depends on causal relationships within natural and human systems. In this paper, I examine the use of narratives about these causal relationships and explore why narratives with little basis in observation can persist in guiding policy. I examine three case studies, one concerning a narrative of climate impacts, a second concerning the relationship between household wealth and vulnerability, and the third concerning the procedures and needs of policy-makers themselves. In each case, I find that the narrative that was needed to legitimize and continue the resource flow within an existing policy process continued, despite growing empirical and model-driven evidence to suggest that the narrative may not be correct. I compare these stories with theories from sociological and evolutionary theory and suggest the importance of correcting or improving policy processes to avoid this pathology.     

2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测

2016年共有3个台风登陆、4个台风影响福建,呈前少后多分布,登陆台风偏多,灾害影响重。分析表明：（1）2016年以来赤道中东太平洋海温距平的演变及大气环流异常响应是造成影响福建台风呈前少后多分布及登陆台风偏多的主要原因。（2）7月下旬至8月中旬和9月上旬至中旬西太平洋台风群发,“莫兰蒂”和“马勒卡”一周内相继登陆和影响福建,是季风槽增强或持续偏强的结果,且季风槽呈现显著的低频变化特征。（3）2016年西北太平洋生成和影响福建的台风与热带大气季节内振荡关系密切,近7成生成于MJO第5~7位相。（4）基于大气低频变化理论的延伸期预报填补了月—季预测和中短期天气预报之间的空白。     

2011年8月气候异常及成因分析

在总结2011年8月我国气候异常与大气环流特征的基础上,针对西南干旱和热带气旋活动偏少两大气候异常事件的成因进行了分析。结果表明：高度场偏高、西太平洋副热带高压偏强、夏季风偏弱和水汽条件较差等大气环流异常是导致高温干旱的主要原因;中部型拉尼娜事件的滞后影响和印度洋偏暖的影响是西南干旱的重要外强迫条件。南海对流活动偏弱,菲律宾以东季风槽位置偏北,热带气旋活动区域垂直风切偏大,西北太平洋副热带高压偏强等因素导致热带气旋活动偏少。