SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Infiltration at the Tai rain forest (Ivory Coast): Measurements and modelling

Infiltration experiments have been performed at three sites along a well-known catena under virgin tropical rain forest using a portable sprinkling infiltrometer. Experimentally determined infiltration curves are presented. Infiltration curves are also simulated on the basis of the Mein-Larson equation. The parameters for this model have been obtained from the infiltration curves (saturated conductivity) and simple soil moisture determinations (fillable porosity). The agreement between experimentally determined and modelled infiltration is reasonable, provided (a) saturated conductivity as derived from the experimental data is corrected, (b) a storage parameter, also derived from the experimental data, is added to the Mein-Larson model, and (c) the decline in soil porosity with depth is either small or occurs abruptly at shallow depth. Comparison of observed infiltration rates with rainfall intensity shows that Horton Overland Flow has to occur naturally at least on the middle and lower section of the catena. Despite the fact that most parameters can be estimated in principle from basic soil data, it remains advisable to obtain sprinkling infiltrometer field measurements, because of soil variability due to dynamic surface conditions, macroporosity, air entrapment, and irregularity of the wetting front.     

Comments on ‘A comparative study of ANN and neuro-fuzzy for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass’

Singh et al (2005) examined the potential of the ANN and neuro-fuzzy systems application for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass. However, the model proposed by them has some drawbacks according to fuzzy logic principles. This discussion will focus on the main fuzzy logic principles which authors and potential readers should take into consideration.     

智能潜器的集成仿真系统

本文介绍了智能潜器集成仿真系统的硬、软件结构．通过这一系统所展示的水下虚拟仿真环境能够在研究和开发智能潜器的控制体系结构、潜器载体的水动力学、信息融合和目标识别等工作中发挥巨大作用     

赤点石斑鱼人工配合饵料中蛋白质最适含量的研究

本文探讨了不同蛋白质含量的配合饵料对赤点石斑鱼（Epinephelusakaara）生长的影响。通过60d度验得出：在各配合饵料组中，蛋白质含量为49．52％的试验的相对增重率（46．84％）体长相对增长率（15．96％）、蛋白质效率（60．35％）和饵料转化率（29．85％）等均为最佳。配合饵料组鱼体肌肉营养成分（蛋白质、脂肪、氨基酸和鲜味氨基酸）也均优于对照组，而更接近野生鱼。经回归方程分析，赤点石斑鱼人工配合饵料中蛋白质最适含量为48．37％～49．24％。     

地形坡度对多金属结核分布的控制作用

选取我国东太平洋多金属结核开辟区内的一个区域作为研究区,利用人工神经网络中应用最为广泛的BP网络,建立控制多金属结核分布的地质因素与多金属结核分布之间的映射关系,探讨地形坡度对多金属结核分布的控制作用.结果表明,在经度、纬度、水深、坡度四个因素中,坡度对结核分布影响程度最大;多金属结核主要分布于坡度小于5°的地方;当坡度小于5°时,丰度与地形坡度呈正相关,品位与地形坡度呈负相关,丰度与品位呈负相关;品位与坡度似呈指数关系,坡度增大,品位降低.     

人造海洋涌升流和海洋渔场

针对渔业资源日趋减少和鱼产品需求不断增加的矛盾，探讨了建造海底山脉、人工制造海洋涌升流、从而人工制造优良海洋渔场的可行性，分析了我国建造海底山脉的水深、海底和海流条件。介绍了建造海底山脉的建筑方法和国际上建造海底山脉的最新动态。论述了我国在200n mile以内建造海底山脉的有利条件。     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.