南极夏季沿海海藻Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖与海水中溶解游离型氨基酸含量的关系

从1988年5月～1989年1月,对东南极维斯特福尔德丘陵地区,戴维斯考察站沿海海域水体中的溶解游离型氨基酸的含量进行了长期连续测定。结果表明,在该海域海水中溶解游离型氨基酸的总浓度略高于其他海海域、浓度变化范围在19～302nmol/dm~3之间。最大丰度出现在11月份,而从11月下旬开始氨基酸含量急剧下降,至12月底达到全年最低点,从1月初开始有所回升。 占据南极夏初海水中海藻类主导地位的海藻Phaeocystis Pouchetii,其爆发性的繁殖过程从11月底开始至翌年1月底2月初结束,高峰在1月初。在Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖期,溶解游离型氨基酸浓度的降低与海藻细胞数量的增加有明显的负相关关系。作者认为在Phaeocystis Pouchetii繁殖增长过程中,该藻细胞直接摄取或(和)通过附随着藻类本体迅速增长的细菌群摄取溶解游离型氨基酸。     

Profiles of Fecal Porphyrins in River Otters Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Median levels of Coproporphyrin III (Copro III) in fecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from an oiled area in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, during 1990 were significantly higher than in samples collected from the same oiled area during 1996 (p=0.011, one way analysis of variance), a nonoiled reference area in Prince William Sound during 1996 (p=0.002) and a reference area in southeast Alaska during 1998 (p=0.004). An overall test of significance that combined probabilities from the statistical analysis of this porphyrin study with those from other biomarker studies revealed a significant difference in physiological response of river otters between oiled and nonoiled areas of the Sound for 1990 (p < 0.01). We demonstrated that changes in levels of fecal porphyrins may serve as a biomarker that may contribute to a health assessment of wild river otters.     

Retrospective analysis: bile hydrocarbons and histopathology of demersal rockfish in Prince William Sound,Alaska, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Demersal rockfish are the only fish species that have been found dead in significant numbers after major oil spills, but the link between oil exposure and effect has not been well established. After the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, several species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.) from oiled and reference sites were analyzed for hydrocarbon metabolites in bile (1989-1991) and for microscopic lesions (1990 and 1991). Biliary hydrocarbons consistent with exposure to Exxon Valdez oil were elevated in 1989, but not in 1990 or 1991. Significant microscopic findings included pigmented macrophage aggregates and hepatic megalocytosis, fibrosis, and lipid accumulation. Site differences in microscopic findings were significant with respect to previous oil exposure in 1991 (P=0.038), but not in 1990. However, differences in microscopic findings were highly significant with respect to age and species in both years (P<0.001). We conclude that demersal rockfish were exposed to Exxon Valdez oil in 1989, but differences in microscopic changes in 1990 and 1991 were related more to age and species differences than to previous oil exposure.     

Restoration of oiled mussel beds in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Natural loss of hydrocarbons was often low from mussel (Mytilus trossulus) beds (which were typically not cleaned after the Exxon Valdez oil spill), thus this habitat remained a long-term source of oil. Consequently, experimental restoration of nine contaminated beds was attempted in 1994; mussels were removed, contaminated surface sediment was replaced (33 metric tons), and original mussels were returned. Hydrocarbon concentrations and mussel populations were monitored for 5 years thereafter. Post-restoration mussel population fluctuations were indistinguishable from regional changes. Increased short-term oil loss was apparent, but long-term (5 year) improvement was equivocal and difficult to distinguish from natural losses. By 1999, oil concentrations in mussels were typically at baseline levels in restored and oiled reference beds; concentrations in replaced sediment were elevated in one third of restored beds, indicating recontamination from underlying or surrounding sediment. Our results suggest mussel relocation is feasible but suggest oil might more effectively be removed from sediment mechanically or chemically than manually.     

Relocations of Earthquakes (1899–1917) in South-Central Alaska

I have relocated 18 earthquakes occurring in the south-central Alaska region between 1899 and 1917 using a bootstrap relocation technique. Locations of events within the Yakutat region suggest that the 1899 sequence began on 4 September with a M_S = 7.9 event within the area of the Pamplona fault zone/western Transition fault zone, rupturing the western portion of the North American/Pacific plate interface. A M_S = 7.4 event on 10 September appears to have ruptured the offshore portion of the plate interface to the east of the 4 September event. This was followed by a M_S = 8.0 event that likely ruptured the onshore and down-dip portion of the plate interface. A M_S = 7.0 event in 1908 may have ruptured a small portion of the plate interface between the 4 September and 10 September events. Events occurring between 1911 and 1916 in the Prince William Sound region appear to be slab events occurring in similar locations to more recent seismicity. Within the Kodiak region the 1900 earthquake of M_S = 7.7 has a location consistent with the rupture of the Kodiak asperity which also ruptured during the 1964 great Alaska earthquake. Other large magnitude Kodiak events appear to be associated with regions of recent seismicity, including the Karluk Lake area of southwestern Kodiak Island and the Albatross Basin located offshore southeast of Kodiak Island. Space-time seismicity patterns since 1899 indicate that magnitude 6 to7 events have occurred with regularity in the Kodiak Island region; that there has been a lack of magnitude ≥ 6 events in the Prince William Sound region since 1964, and that the Yakutat region has remained notably quiescent at the magnitude ≥ 6 level.     

Atmospheric and tidal forcing of the exchange between Prince William Sound and the Gulf of Alaska

Current meter data from a series of oceanographic moorings spanning a total of five years was analyzed to quantify the tidal and subtidal exchange of water between Prince William Sound and the adjacent continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Velocity profiles were used to quantify the exchange in terms of a transport through each of the two largest passages: Montague Strait and Hinchinbrook Entrance. Buoy wind and atmospheric pressure observations, as well as bottom pressure records, are then used to elucidate the role of atmospheric forcing on the exchange.An EOF analysis shows that the barotropic component accounts for 62% or more of the variance in the velocity profiles even after tides are removed by low-pass filtering, and thus the analysis is concerned primarily with depth-integrated transport. The estimated depth-integrated transport can reach ±0.6 Sv in Montague Strait, and ±1.5 Sv in Hinchinbrook Entrance. The largest fluctuations occur in response to the semidiurnal tides. Transport variations on subtidal time scales, which can reach −0.2 Sv in Montague Strait, and +0.6 Sv in Hinchinbrook Entrance, are shown by a frequency domain analysis to be dominated by easterly wind stress events which occur at periods of 2–5 days in both summer and winter. Atmospheric pressure has much less impact on transport, but there is some evidence that it might play a small role on time scales of a few weeks.Bottom pressure records suggest that easterly wind events set up a sea level height gradient in Hinchinbrook Entrance such that it tilts up to the east, which under geostrophy drives a barotropic flow into Prince William Sound. The same winds also raise the sea level in Hinchinbrook Entrance relative to Montague Strait, encouraging an outflow there in agreement with the ADCP observations. There is no evidence that the wind drives a vertically sheared bi-directional flow in either entrance, as has been observed in some estuaries. It is hypothesized that the lack of such a flow is possible because Prince William Sound has two major connections to the shelf, which alters the mass conservation requirement for each passage when compared to a system with just one entrance.     

基于统计理论方法的水文模型参数敏感性分析

参数敏感性分析是模型不确定性量化的重要环节,有助于有效识别关键参数,减少参数的不确定性影响,进而提高参数优化效率。利用Morris筛选方法定性识别相对重要参数,耦合方差分解的Sobol方法和统计理论的响应曲面模型构建一种新的定量敏感性分析方法——RSMSobol方法。以长江支流沿渡河流域的日降雨径流过程模拟为例,系统分析4种不同目标函数响应条件下新安江模型的参数敏感性。结果表明Morris方法和RSMSobol方法的集成应用极大地提高了全局敏感性分析的效率,Morris定性筛选结果为定量评估减少了模型参数维数,采用代理模型技术的RSMSobol方法减少了模型的计算消耗。     

苏北盆地盐城组咸水层CO2 地质封存泄漏风险的全局敏感性分析

      基于对苏北盆地盐城组下段沉积旋回地层概化,建立了一个含有断层的二维剖面模型,采用TOUGH2/ECO2N 程序对 注入到深部咸水层中CO2 的运移分布特征及沿断层的泄漏过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,尽管盐城组下段地层具有3层旋 回结构且砂岩层属高孔高渗储层,但由于泥层厚度较小且渗透率相对较高,多层封盖效果不佳。在存在导通断层时,CO2 泄露风险较大。应用Morris 法以断层中气相CO2 总量作为输出变量,对模型参数进行了全局敏感性分析。研究显示,当仅 改变断层参数时,与毛细压力相关的参数对气相CO2 沿断层泄漏影响程度最高;当考虑系统参数整体变化时则以砂岩含水 层和泥岩的渗透率敏感性最高,其次为与毛细压力相关的参数（进气压力、残余液体饱和度及孔隙分布指数）。两种情形下 孔隙度与盐度的敏感性均很小。     

Using tolerance intervals to assess recovery of mussel beds impacted by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been measured in mussel tissues in early spring and summer since 1993 throughout Prince William Sound (PWS) and the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Season-specific thresholds were established at reference sites to identify ‘above background’ total PAH levels. Thresholds were estimated using one-sided 99% tolerance limits. Thresholds were similar across reference sites but differed by an order of magnitude across seasons. Trends in total PAH since 1998 were assessed for sites impacted by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill or the Alyeska Marine Terminal. Summer samples exhibited no trends; early spring samples declined. In early spring, all sites were judged ‘recovered’ by 2004; in summer, one site in western Prince William Sound and two in the western GOA exceeded thresholds by 11 ng/g dry weight or less. Robust estimation methods prevented bias from observations affected by unknown releases or laboratory errors.