Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐year post‐fire erosion rates in Bitterroot National Forest,Montana

Accelerated runoff and erosion commonly occur following forest fires due to combustion of protective forest floor material, which results in bare soil being exposed to overland flow and raindrop impact, as well as water repellent soil conditions. After the 2000 Valley Complex Fires in the Bitterroot National Forest of west‐central Montana, four sets of six hillslope plots were established to measure first‐year post‐wildfire erosion rates on steep slopes (greater than 50%) that had burned with high severity. Silt fences were installed at the base of each plot to trap eroded sediment from a contributing area of 100 m². Rain gauges were installed to correlate rain event characteristics to the event sediment yield. After each sediment‐producing rain event, the collected sediment was removed from the silt fence and weighed on site, and a sub‐sample taken to determine dry weight, particle size distribution, organic matter content, and nutrient content of the eroded material. Rainfall intensity was the only significant factor in determining post‐fire erosion rates from individual storm events. Short duration, high intensity thunderstorms with a maximum 10‐min rainfall intensity of 75 mm h^?1 caused the highest erosion rates (greater than 20 t ha^?1). Long duration, low intensity rains produced little erosion (less than 0·01 t ha^?1). Total C and N in the collected sediment varied directly with the organic matter; because the collected sediment was mostly mineral soil, the C and N content was small. Minimal amounts of Mg, Ca, and K were detected in the eroded sediments. The mean annual erosion rate predicted by Disturbed WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) was 15% less than the mean annual erosion rate measured, which is within the accuracy range of the model. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed,Minnesota, USA

Abstract

Tile drainage influences infiltration and surface runoff and is thus an important factor in the erosion process. Tile drainage reduces surface runoff, but questions abound on its influence on sediment transport through its dense network and into the stream network. The impact of subsurface tiling on upland erosion rates in the Le Sueur River watershed, USA, was assessed using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Six different scenarios of tile drainage with varying drainage coefficient and management type (no till and autumn mulch-till) were evaluated. The mean annual surface runoff depth, soil loss rate and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for croplands, based on a 30-year simulation for the watershed with untiled autumn mulch-till (Scenario 1), were estimated to be 83.5 mm, 0.27 kg/m² and 86.7%, respectively; on no-till management systems (Scenario 4), the respective results were 72.3 mm, 0.06 kg/m² and 88.2%. Tile drains reduced surface runoff, soil loss and SDR estimates for Scenario 1 by, on average, 14.5, 8.1 and 7.9%, respectively; and for Scenario 4 by an estimated 31.5, 22.1 and 20.2%, respectively. The impact of tile drains on surface runoff, soil loss and SDR was greater under the no-till management system than under the autumn mulch-till management system. Comparison of WEPP outputs with those of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) showed differences between the two methods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Maalim, F.K. and Melesse. A.M., 2013. Modelling impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed in Minnesota, USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 570–586.     

The Daily Erosion Project – daily estimates of water runoff,soil detachment,and erosion

Water runoff and sediment transport from agricultural uplands are substantial threats to water quality and sustained crop production. To improve soil and water resources, farmers, conservationists, and policy‐makers must understand how landforms, soil types, farming practices, and rainfall interact with water runoff and soil erosion processes. To that end, the Iowa Daily Erosion Project (IDEP) was designed and implemented in 2003 to inventory these factors across Iowa in the United States. IDEP utilized the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model along with radar‐derived precipitation data and government‐provided slope, soil, and management information to produce daily estimates of soil erosion and runoff at the township scale (93 km² [36 mi²]). Improved national databases and evolving remote sensing technology now permit the derivation of slope, soil, and field‐level management inputs for WEPP. These remotely sensed parameters, along with more detailed meteorological data, now drive daily WEPP hillslope soil erosion and water runoff estimates at the small watershed scale, approximately 90 km² (35 mi²), across sections of multiple Midwest states. The revisions constitute a substantial improvement as more realistic field conditions are reflected, more detailed weather data are utilized, hill slope sampling density is an order of magnitude greater, and results are aggregated based on surface hydrology enabling further watershed research and analysis. Considering these improvements and the expansion of the project beyond Iowa it was renamed the Daily Erosion Project (DEP). Statistical and comparative evaluations of soil erosion simulations indicate that the sampling density is adequate and the results are defendable. The modeling framework developed is readily adaptable to other regions given suitable inputs. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Evaluating overland flow sediment transport capacity

An equation for evaluating the sediment transport capacity of overland flow is a necessary part of a physically based soil erosion model describing sediment detachment and transport as distributed processes. At first, for the hydraulic conditions of small-scale and large-scale roughness, the sediment transport capacity relationship used in the WEPP model is calibrated by Yalin and Govers' equation. The analysis shows that the transport coefficient K_t depends on the Shields parameter, Y, according to a semi-logarithmic (Yalin) or a linear (Govers) equation. The reliability of the semi-logarithmic equation is verified by Smart's, and Aziz and Scott's experimental data. Then the Low's formula, whose applicability is also proved by Smart's, and Aziz and Scott's data, is transformed as a stream power equation in which a stream power coefficient, K_SP, depending on Shields parameter, slope, sediment and water-specific weight, appears. A relationship between transport capacity and effective stream power is also proposed. Finally, the influence of rainfall on sediment transport capacity and the prediction of critical shear stress corresponding to overland flow are examined. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WEPP模型(坡面版)在贵州石漠化地区土壤侵蚀模拟的适用性评价

文章以贵州花江喀斯特石漠化地区为研究区域,利用WEPP模型(坡面版)分别模拟2006年、2010年土壤侵蚀模数,并将实测数据与WEPP模型模拟值作比较,探讨WEPP软件在喀斯特石漠化地区的适用性。研究表明:WEPP模型对于模拟喀斯特石漠化地区土壤侵蚀有较大误差,对土壤侵蚀模数模拟的有效性系数均为负值,不适用于直接计算该区域土壤侵蚀模数。WEPP模型对微度侵蚀模拟精度不够,但能大体反映不同径流小区之间土壤侵蚀强弱的关系和生态修复过程土壤侵蚀的变化趋势。若要应用WEPP模型对喀斯特地区土壤侵蚀模数模拟计算,必须考虑水土的地下漏失、地表裸岩率、地形高度破碎等环境条件。裸岩率、土壤漏失、地形条件等都是WEPP模型修正所必须注意的内容。      

Estimation of soil losses within plots as affected by different agricultural land management

Abstract

Proper agricultural land management strategies improve soil structural properties, thereby reducing soil loss by water erosion. This study was conducted to estimate soil losses from plots of different agricultural land management using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) (95.7) model. The study took place in a semiarid region in Kenya. The mean annual rainfall was 694 mm. The WEPP (95.7) model was initially used to estimate total sediment loading from the catchment into a reservoir. The estimate was about 2871 t corresponding to an average sedimentation rate of 1063 t km^?2 year^?1, which was about 76% of the measured total sediment inflow into the reservoir. Soil losses were estimated within 10 plots on the catchment of different sizes and slopes with the following treatments: conventional tillage (hand hoeing) with maize and soybean intercropping (HOCOBE); conservation tillage (disc plough) with maize and soybean intercropping (COBEAN); conservation tillage with only maize cultivation (CNTCORN); and conservation tillage with only soybean cultivation (CNTBEAN). The soil loss reduction of COBEAN, CNTCORN and CNTBEAN relative to HOCOBE ranged between 27–47%, 16–29% and 12–25%, respectively, depending on the size and slope of the plot. In general, conservation tillage reduced soil loss relative to conventional tillage. However, with conservation tillage, the single cropping system resulted in greater soil loss than the intercropping system. In the case of single cropping with conservation tillage, the soil loss reduction for maize ranged between 4 and 9%, relative to soybean. Overall, the study showed that there would be a significant reduction of soil losses from plots if conservation tillage with an intercropping system (maize and soybean) were to be adopted on agricultural lands in semiarid regions.     

Application of the WEPP model for prioritization and evaluation of best management practices in an Indian watershed

The pre‐calibrated and validated physically based watershed model, water erosion prediction project (WEPP) was used as a modelling tool for the identification of critical watersheds and evaluation of best management practices for a small hilly watershed (Karso) of India. The land use/cover of the study area was generated using IRS‐1C LISS‐III (linear imaging self scanner) satellite data. The watershed and sub‐watershed boundaries, drainage, slope and soil map of the study area were generated using ARC/INFO geographic information system (GIS). The WEPP model was finally applied to the Karso watershed which lies within Damodar Barakar catchment of India to identify the critical sub‐watersheds on the basis of their simulated average annual sediment yields. Priorities were fixed on the basis of ranks assigned to each critical sub‐watershed based on the susceptibility to erosion. The sub‐watershed having the highest sediment yield was assigned a priority number 1, the next highest value was assigned a priority number 2, and so on. Subsequently, the model was used for evaluating the effectiveness of best management practices (crop and tillage) for conservation of soil for all the sub‐watersheds. On the basis of this study, it is realized that cash crops like soyabean should be encouraged in the upland portion of the sub‐watersheds, and the existing tillage practice (country plough/mould board plough) may be replaced by a field cultivation system for conservation of soil and water in the sub‐watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CLIGEN随机气候生成器在天山西部中山带的适用性评价

根据中国科学院天山积雪雪崩研究站1978-2007年降水和气温的月平均资料以及在全美范围内选择参证站点得到的其他气象因子,利用CLIGEN模型分别模拟出日序列气象数据,统计出多年月平均降水量、多年月平均最高温度和多年月平均最低温度.选择模型有效系数E和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为评价指标.最终确定HIBBING站点为最优参证站.HIBBING站点的模拟多年月平均降水量、月平均最高温度和月平均最低温度的模型有效系数E分别为0.980 0、0.956 3、0.996 5,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为7.1%、10.70%、8.30%.从而确定了CLIGEN模型在天山西部中山带的适用性.