当代气候研究计划

就气候系统问题，国际上与气候及其变化有关的重要科学计划、尤其是气候变化及可预报性研究（CLIVAR）计划，作了简要介绍，同时还就气候预测问题作了讨论。     

灌淤土壤可溶性盐分空间变异性与棉花生长关系研究

运用地统计学方法，在灌淤土壤上进行了棉田土壤可溶性盐分的空间变异规律与棉花生长关系系统研究。传统统计学分析表明土壤盐分测试数据基本符合正态分布；在一定取样间距下，土壤可溶性盐分的田间合理取样数目为27。半方差分析显示：土壤可溶性盐分具中等的水平变异性，但随着聚样深度的增加未表现出明显的垂直变异特性；随着棉花的生长发育，土壤可溶性盐分呈现出逐渐减弱的时间变异规律，采用直线或曲线拟合方程估计了可溶性盐分的半方差图及其参数，并绘制了其相应的等值线图。土壤可溶性盐分与棉花产量之间的相关分析表明：可溶性盐分含量与棉花产量之间呈显著负相关关系，且花铃期的相关性较播前显著。研究结果为提高田间试验有效性以及盐渍化土壤改良提供了科学依据与基础资料。     

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Europe Blocking and Their Impacts on Extreme Snowstorms: A Review

Large-scale, low frequency modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and blocking, have an important modulation on the northern hemisphere weather and climate. In this paper, the physical mechanism studies on inter-decadal and decadal variability of NAO and blocking were summarized. The relationship between NAO regime transitions and the interannual variability of NAO in winter during was examined by using a statistical approach. The time-space relationship between NAO and European blocking were discussed. Based on two extreme cold and snowstorm events, the impacts on local weather especially the extreme events within the life cycle (two weeks) of the NAO and blocking were further examined. It was found that the frequently occurrence of the Eurasian extreme snowstorm was closely related to the special combination of NAO and blocking regime. In addition, the development of theoretical modes for NAO and blocking was discussed and issues that remain to be solved were proposed.     

北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响

我国东部陆架海和南海是国防安全的重要门户;位处第二岛链以西的副热带北太平洋既是各国争夺的重要海区,又是我国从近海走向大洋的重要通道.围绕"北太平洋副热带环流变异如何通过黑潮与我国近海动力环境之间相互作用"这一国际前沿科学问题,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响"于2007年9月正式立项.该项目不仅有助于拓展和丰富海洋动力学理论,揭示我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异机制,提高预测能力,而且也将为维护我国国防安全和海洋权益,为可持续开发利用海洋资源提供海洋动力环境保障.该项目主要研究内容包括:①北太平洋副热带环流变异和调整机理;②黑潮与我国近海的能量与水体交换过程及机制;③北太平洋副热带环流变异与大气驱动力的耦合效应;④我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异的可预测性研究.拟解决的关键科学问题为:北太平洋副热带内区环流变异的机理及其对黑潮的影响;黑潮源头变异机理及其对吕宋海峡水交换的影响和黑潮变异机理及其对东部陆架海域动力环境的影响.     

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates associated with the migration of bedforms

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates that occur at a variety of timescales, even under steady flow conditions, are accepted as an inherent component of the bedload transport process. Rarely, however, has the cause of such variations been explained clearly. We consider three data sets, obtained from laboratory experiments, that refer to measurements of bedload transport made with continuously recording bedload traps. Each data set is characterized by a predominant low-frequency oscillation, on which additional higher-frequency oscillations generally are superimposed. The period of these oscillations, as isolated through the use of spectral analysts, ranged between 0·47 and 168 minutes, and was associated unequivocally with the migration of bedforms such as ripples, dunes, and bars. The extent to which such oscillatory behaviour may be recognized in a data set depends on the duration of sampling and the length of the sampling time, with respect to the period of a given bedform. Several theoretical probability distribution functions have been developed to describe the frequency distributions of (relative) bedload transport rates that are associated with the migration of bedforms (Einstein, 1937b; Hamamori, 1962; Carey and Hubbell, 1986). These distribution functions were derived without reference to a sampling interval. We present a modification of Hamamori's (1962) probability distribution function, generated by Monte Carlo simulation, which permits one to specify the sampling interval, in relation to the length of a bedform. Comparisons between the simulated and observed frequency distributions, that were undertaken on the basis of the data described herein, are good (significant at the 90 per cent confidence level). Finally, the implications that temporal variability, which is associated with the migration of bedforms, have for the accurate determination of bedload transport rates are considered.     

大洋温盐环流的稳定性及变率模拟研究进展

围绕大洋温盐环流的稳定性和变率,以三维原始方程大洋环流模式（OGCM）和海气耦合模式为重点,兼顾理想概念模式,总结了近年来模拟研究的主要成果。概括了几个主要前沿方向——大洋温盐环流的多平衡态现象、数十年／年代际变率以及百年到千年尺度的变率特性等的研究成果,探讨了其内部机制。     

Recent progress on anomalous X-ray pulsars

I review recent observational progress on Anomalous X-ray Pulsars, with an emphasis on timing, variability, and spectra. Highlighted results include the recent timing and flux stabilization of the notoriously unstable AXP 1E 1048.1–5937, the remarkable glitches seen in two AXPs, and the newly recognized variety of AXP variability types, including outbursts, bursts, flares, and pulse profile changes. I also discuss recent discoveries regarding AXP spectra, including their surprising hard X-ray and far-infrared emission, as well as the pulsed radio emission seen in one source. Much has been learned about these enigmatic objects over the past few years, with the pace of discoveries remaining steady. However additional work on both observational and theoretical fronts is needed before we have a comprehensive understanding of AXPs and their place in the zoo of manifestations of young neutron stars.      

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.     

中国降水的季节性

本文使用一套基于中国气象局所属的2416个台站数据所得的高分辨降水资料,对1961~2013年中国降水季节性进行了研究。就全国平均而言,各季节降水占全年降水百分率最高的为夏季（56.5%）,春季（19.3%）和秋季（18.9%）次之,冬季（5.3%）最少;针对不同地区,各季节降水百分率存在很大差异,例如华南春季降水最多、东北至高原一线秋季降水大于春季降水。春、夏两季降水百分率高值（低值）区域略呈现出降水百分率减少（增多）趋势,秋季整体上略微减少,冬季则显著增加;季节降水百分率的变率整体表现为夏季大而冬季小,其西部的变率与地形为显著负相关,东部变率的大值区位置随季节变化;秋冬两季的降水百分率变率有显著增加,各季节不同地区变率的变化趋势存在明显差异。     

Spatial variability of N2O concentrations and of denitrification-related factors in the surficial groundwater of a catchment in Northern Germany

N₂O concentrations and denitrification-related factors (NO₃, SO₄, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CO₂) were investigated in the surface groundwater of a catchment in northern Germany, the Fuhrberger Feld Aquifer (FFA). We sampled 79 plots that were selected according to the three criteria of land use, historical land use conversion (1954–1995) and groundwater level. We sampled three sites within each plot. The sampling depth was 0.5 m below the groundwater surface.We found no indication for the occurrence of autotrophic denitrification in the surface groundwater. Heterotrophic denitrification was identified as the main process for N₂O accumulation. The variability of N₂O concentrations on the plot-scale was extremely high and was poorly explained by the three sampling criteria. Other denitrification-related variables such as NO₃, SO₄ and DOC were less variable. The selection criteria land use and groundwater level clearly influenced the order of magnitude of N₂O concentrations in the surface groundwater. Under arable land, high NO₃ concentrations resulted in high N₂O concentrations. The surface groundwater under forest and pasture was almost NO₃-free and had also very small N₂O concentrations. Plots where the distance from the soil surface to the groundwater surface was large (>1 m up to 3.4 m) showed higher N₂O concentrations in the surface groundwater than plots where the distance was small (<1 m). A larger distance from the soil surface to the groundwater leads to a longer residence time and more decomposition of DOC in the soil. Consequently the less bioavailable DOC could inhibit the efficiency of the heterotrophic denitrification in the groundwater, yielding more N₂O. Elevated organic carbon levels in plots with historic land use conversion (pasture to arable) were very stable and did not influence N₂O concentrations. The high within plot variability showed that an upscaling of N₂O from the plot-scale to the catchment-scale is possible as long as the groundwater level regime and the land use do not change.