Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.     

The Acheron rock avalanche, Canterbury, New Zealand—morphology and dynamics

The 1100-year-old Acheron rock avalanche deposit lies in an active tectonic setting in Canterbury, New Zealand, and has a volume of ten million cubic metres and a runout distance 3.5 km. The deposit comprises intensely fragmented greywacke rock, and the processes of intense rock fragmentation during runout are postulated to have generated an isotropic dispersive stress. Dynamic simulation shows that the runout can be explained as a flow of dry granular material with a normal coefficient of friction, if the presence of an isotropic dispersive stress within the moving rock debris throughout the runout is assumed. The dispersive stress distribution required to model the rock avalanche runout and match velocities calculated from run-up traces is closely similar to that used to simulate the runout of the much larger Falling Mountain rock avalanche in a similar lithologic and tectonic setting. Both events thus behaved in a fundamentally similar fashion.     

Some observations on the prediction of the dynamic parameters of debris flows in pyroclastic deposits in the Campania region of Italy

Over the last 20 years, many tools have been developed for the prediction of the post-failure behaviour of rapid landslides. However, as pointed out by several researchers, knowledge may be improved by the performance of back-analyses using different models and the evaluation of their reliability. This paper reports the back-analysis, conducted using numerical models, of 57 rapid landslides that have occurred in the Campania region. The back-analysis has been performed using the 2-D DAN_W code (version 2003) with two different rheological models: the Voellmy and the frictional models. The latter has been immediately discarded because it did not match the observed data. Instead, using the Voellmy model, the best-fit values of the parameters (friction μ and turbulence ξ) for different types of flow (channelled, un-channelled and mixed flows) have been researched. With these values a parametric study has been carried out on four representative slope profiles of the Campania region, enabling the prediction of runout, velocity and depth of flow (dynamic parameters) of potential debris flows.

Kinematics and 3-D internal deformation of granular slopes: Analogue models and natural landslides

This study uses results from a series of analogue models, and field observations, scanned data and sections of natural landslides to investigate the kinematics and internal deformation during the failure of an unstable slope. The models simulate collapse of granular slopes and focus on the spatial and temporal distribution of their internal structures. Using a series of systematically designed models, we have studied the effect of friction and deformability of the runout base on internal deformation within a granular slope. The results of these different models show that the collapse of granular slopes resulted in different-generation extensional faults at the back of the slope, and contractional structures (overturned folds, sheath folds and thrusts) at the toe of the slope. The failure surfaces and the volume of the failure mass changed both spatially and temporally. Younger failure surfaces formed in the back of the older ones by incorporating additional new material from the head of the slope. Our model results also show that the nature of the runout base has a significant influence on the runout distance, topography and internal deformation of a granular slope. Model results are compared with natural landslides where local profiles were dug in order to decipher the internal structures of the failure mass. The natural cases show similar structural distribution at the head and toe of the failure mass. As in model results, our field observations indicate the presence of at least two generations of failure surfaces where the older ones are steeper.     

Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong

Steep terrain and high a frequency of tropical rainstorms make landslide occurrence on natural terrain a common phenomenon in Hong Kong. This paper reports on the use of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database, compiled primarily from existing digital maps and aerial photographs, to describe the physical characteristics of landslides and the statistical relations of landslide frequency with the physical parameters contributing to the initiation of landslides on Lantau Island in Hong Kong. The horizontal travel length and the angle of reach, defined as the angle of the line connecting the head of the landslide source to the distal margin of the displaced mass, are used to describe runout behavior of landslide mass. For all landslides studied, the horizontal travel length of landslide mass ranges from 5 to 785 m, with a mean value of 43 m, and the average angle of reach is 27.7°. This GIS database is then used to obtain a logistic multiple regression model for predicting slope instability. It is indicated that slope gradient, lithology, elevation, slope aspect, and land-use are statistically significant in predicting slope instability, while slope morphology and proximity to drainage lines are not important and thus excluded from the model. This model is then imported back into the GIS to produce a map of predicted slope instability. The results of this study demonstrate that slope instability can be effectively modeled by using GIS technology and logistic multiple regression analysis.     

Hazard assessment and runout analysis for an unstable rock slope above an industrial site in the Riviera valley, Switzerland

This paper presents a detailed field investigation and hazard assessment for an unstable rock slope above an industrial site in the Riviera valley in the Canton of Ticino in southern Switzerland. An integrated framework was used to counter issues of geological complexity and uncertainty, linking geological mapping and numerical modeling to develop an understanding of the acting instability mechanism to 2-D and 3-D dynamic runout simulations to predict the travel path and reach in the event of a large volume rockslide. The results from the numerical stability analysis provided a means to constrain failure volume estimates, whereas a series of calibration simulations were used to constrain the input parameters required by the rheological model used for the runout analysis. Results from this assessment suggest that current protection measures in place may not be sufficient, helping local authorities to define hazard zones and aid further development plans for the region.     

Assessing debris flow hazards associated with slow moving landslides: methodology and numerical analyses

Clayey slow-moving landslides are characterized by their capability to suddenly change behaviour and release debris-flows. Due to their sediment volume and their high mobility, they are far more dangerous than those resulting from continuous erosive processes and associated potential high hazard magnitude on alluvial fans. A case of transformation from earthflow to debris-flow is presented. An approach combining geomorphology, geotechnics, rheology and numerical analysis is adopted. Results show a very good agreement between the yield stress values measured by laboratory tests, in the field according to the morphology of the levees, and by back-analyses using the debris-flow modelling code, Bing. The runout distances and the deposit thickness in the depositional area are also well reproduced. This allows proposing debris-flow risk scenarios. Results show that clayey earthflows can transform under 5-years return period rainfall conditions into 1 km runout debris-flows of volumes ranging between 2,000 to 5,000 m³.