一个全球变网格多层原始方程差分模式的设计

文章设计了一个以均匀网格差分模式为基础的全球变网格多层原始方程差分模式。还证明了如果前者满足了一定条件，从而具有质量与能量守恒性质以及与连续情况一致的动能、位能和表面位能之间的转换关系，则变网格模式也同样具有。而且，把前者改变为后者增加的运算量很小，也非常方便。     

Estimating coefficients of volume compressibility from compression of strata and piezometric changes in a multiaquifer system in west Taiwan

This paper estimates the coefficients of volume compressibility from variation in compressible layer thickness and changes in piezometric heads by using detail ground surface surveys and a multilayer monitoring well at a selected site (Shigang) within the Choshui River alluvial fan in west Taiwan. The paper integrates various types of in situ monitoring tools, including leveling surveys, continuous global position system (GPS) stations, multilevel layer compression and groundwater pressure head-monitoring wells, to investigate the situation and progress of the subsidence problem in the region. The results from the cross-analyses of the measured data show that surface settlement caused by the compression of strata is between the depths of 60 and 210 m where the clayey stratum within 120-180 m was most pronounced and contributes up to 53% of the total compression. The results indicate that the clayey stratum is under normal consolidation. The results also reflect the fact that 20% of settlement contribution comes from the sandy stratum within 90-120 m; the elasto-plastic behavior of this sandy stratum is clear. The coefficients of volume compressibility of the clayey and sandy stratum analysed from the stratum's compression records; they were 6.38×10⁻⁸ and 5.71×10⁻⁹ m²/N, respectively. Ultimately, this parameter estimation would permit to control and predict land subsidence based on change in pressure head which are related to groundwater extraction.     

Luminescence and ESR dating of the sedimentary infill from the multi-level cave system of Alkerdi-Zelaieta (Navarre,N Spain)

The finding of Upper Paleolithic engravings in 2016 triggered a multidisciplinary investigation of the Alkerdi cave system (Urdazubi, N Spain). The study of the speleogenetic processes led to the identification of at least 6 paragenetic cave levels with associated sedimentary infill. In order to unravel the timing of changes in the karst dynamics and to get some insights about sediment origin, two sediment samples were collected from cave levels 4 and 1 for numerical dating purpose, using both Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) methods. One additional modern-age sample was also taken from the entrance of the karst to evaluate the magnitude of the optical bleaching achieved by the quartz grains before entering the cave system. Last, one sample was collected from a flowstone for U-series dating, providing independent age control.OSL measurements were carried out using small quartz multi-grain (MG) and single-grain (SG) Single Aliquot Regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. Initial Equivalent Dose (D_e) results show evidence of saturated OSL signal for the sample of the higher level (with ∼60% of saturated aliquots). Unlike SA data, SG analyses do not meet the usual quality criteria (e.g., relatively high recuperation ratios, only a few grains with useable signal), suggesting that corresponding dating results should be treated with caution.Hence, both MG and SG TT-OSL and MG ESR methods were subsequently employed, as the corresponding signals are known to have higher saturation levels than OSL ones. ESR analyses were based on the Multiple Centre (MC) approach using the standard multi-grain multi-aliquot additive (MAA) dose method, while TT-OSL measurements were performed following Demuro et al. (2020). The latter, however, did not return any useful results for both samples. MC ESR data show the usual D_e pattern (D_e(Al)>D_e(Ti op. D)>D_e(Ti–H)) indicating that among the three ESR signals analyzed, the Ti–H most likely provides the closest estimate to the true burial age. However, low measurement repeatability and goodness-of-of fit indicate that the reliability of the ESR results may be reasonably questioned.Results derived from this multi-technique dating approach provide the first chronological constraints for the sedimentary infill of the Alkerdi cave system. In particular, they suggest that sediment deposition in Cave Level 4 (ALK-OSL01) occurred around 130 ka, which is in good agreement with the minimum age constraint given by the speleothem (80.5 ± 9.0 ka). In comparison, the young age obtained for sample ALK-OSL02 (5.0 ± 0.9 ka) suggests recent Holocene formation of the lowest cave level 1.Finally, the MG De value obtained for the modern sample is close to zero (<1 Gy), indicating that the OSL signal is almost fully reset at a multi-grain level before entering the cave. Additionally, despite the large De overdispersion measured in this modern sample, the De values are one to two order of magnitude lower than those obtained with the same model in the other two samples. Therefore, the large OSL D_e overdispersion (OD) values of up to 64% obtained for the two samples from Cave Level 4 and 1 are most likely related to re-sedimentation processes inside the cave system.     

A spatio-temporal analysis of academic performance at the Basic Education Certificate Examination in Ghana

Over the last decade, Ghana has more than tripled investment in its basic education system. Consequently, the country has made huge educational gains, primarily in providing universal access to basic education. However, many stakeholders are worried that academic performance is lagging because of disproportional attention to accessing basic education. Discussion of these concerns is hampered by ongoing disagreement about the true trajectory of academic performance at the basic education level and the widespread nature of students' lagging academic performance. In part, this disagreement stems from the failure of empirical studies to comprehensively examine trends in academic performance standards at the basic education level by concurrently considering a geographical and longitudinal perspective. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal trends of academic performance at the junior high school level since 2009 by using multilevel growth curve modeling, spatial statistics, and district-level longitudinal data. Results reveal 3 statistically distinct trajectories of academic performance: erratic, accelerating, and decelerating changes. Results also show that rural–urban gaps explain 31% of the performance trajectories, a trend which is expected to persist in the long term. In addition, we find extreme variations in academic performance within rural areas. Given the varying trajectories and geographical variability in academic performance, we suggest a localized approach to addressing challenges of low academic achievement at the basic education level in Ghana.     

Using multilevel modeling and geographically weighted regression to identify spatial variations in the relationship between place-level disadvantages and obesity in Taiwan

Objectives

We examined whether and to what extent the relationship between township disadvantages and obesity varied across geographical areas.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis of a population-based sample of Taiwanese adults (N = 25,985) from the 2005 Social Development Trend Survey on Health and Safety was performed. Multilevel models integrated with geographically weighted regressions were employed to analyze the spatially varying association between area disadvantages and obesity. The dependent variable was body mass index calculated from respondents’ self-reported weight and height. The key explanatory variable was a township disadvantage index made of poverty level, minority composition, and social disorder. Other individual socio-demographic characteristics were included to account for the compositional effect.

Results

The association between township disadvantages and elevated obesity risk in Taiwan was found to be area-specific. In contrast to results from the commonly used global regression, geographically weighted regression model showed that township disadvantages elevated obesity level only in certain areas.

Conclusions

We found heterogeneity of place-level determinants of obesity across geographical areas. Adoption of population approach to curb obesity would require area-specific strategies for most needed areas.     

“一带一路”战略下中国与周边国家经济联动关系研究

基于"一带一路"战略背景,分析中国与周边国家的经济联动关系,运用Multilevel P2模型分析国家之间的经济互动,从组织结构层次和个体层次探讨国家间经济联系形成的机制。研究发现:稳定的政治环境是促进经济联动的基础,区域内部的贸易与投资等能够加速国家之间的经济联系;资本存量、产业结构等因素具有提供者效应,劳动力、基础设施等因素具有接受者效应,都能够增加国家之间的经济联动性。     

Unpacking multilevel adaptation to climate change in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Multilevel governance is regarded as a promising approach to deal with the multidimensional nature of climate change adaptation. However, the policy context in which it is implemented is very often complex and fragmented, characterised by interacting climate and non-climate strategies. An understanding of multilevel decision-making and governance is particularly important, if desired adaptation outcomes are to be achieved. This paper examines how climate change adaptation takes place in a complex multilevel system of governance, in the context of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region. It examines over one hundred adaptation strategies at federal, state, regional and local levels in terms of type, manifestation, purposefulness, drivers and triggers, and geographic and temporal scope. Interactions between strategies are investigated both at the same level of governance and across governance levels. This study demonstrates that multilevel approach is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition in responding to complex multiscale and multisector issues, such as climate change adaptation. Short-term adaptation measures; a predominant incremental, sectoral, top-down approach to adaptation; and the lack of a framework for managing interactions are major threats to effective climate adaptation in the GBR region. Coping with such threats will require long-term transformative action, establishing enabling conditions to support local adaptation, and, most important, creating and maintaining strategic interactions among adaptation strategies. Coordinating and integrating climate and non-climate strategies across jurisdictions and policy sectors are the most significant and challenging tasks for multilevel governance in the GBR region and elsewhere.     

贵州关岭大寨崩滑碎屑流灾害初步研究

2010年6月28日,贵州省关岭县岗乌镇大寨村发生特大型崩滑碎屑(石)流灾害,造成99人死亡或失踪。通过现场考察崩滑区的地质环境与斜坡岩体结构,认为斜坡体由似"干砌块石结构"的裂隙化岩体组成是发生崩溃式破坏的主要内在原因。超常暴雨(过程雨量237mm)条件下斜坡岩体后缘裂缝充水形成持续的"水楔作用"是斜坡岩体松动、倾倒垮塌的主要外部引发因素。碎屑(石)流块度的空间分布具有从源头向沟口逐次减小,碎屑(石)流运动冲击高度逐步降低,冲击速度逐步减小,并显示4个能级4个冲程的特点。根据动势能守恒定律,计算了每个冲程的最大速度,得出第1冲程为高速崩滑,其它冲程属于碎屑(石)流动冲击。未发现区域天然地震、光照水库诱发地震与外围历史采矿活动与本次事件相关的直接证据。由于滑坡后缘仍存在不稳定岩体,碎屑(石)流堆积体上多处分布直径3～5m的堰塞塘,说明碎屑(石)空隙的排泄能力不足,在未来暴雨条件下引发新的崩滑或形成沟谷型泥石流的可能性是存在的。     

The evolution of legal instruments and the sustainability of the Peruvian anchovy fishery

Landings statistics of the Peruvian anchovy fishery show that the fishery went through a phase of explosive and uncontrolled growth from its establishment in the mid-fifties until its collapse in 1972. After the collapse, a second phase from 1973 to 1984 was characterized by unfavorable warm ocean conditions and low catches. A third phase, from 1984 to the present, with propitious ocean-environmental conditions and modern governance, can be further divided into a controlled growth period (1985-1994) and a sustainable landings' period (1995 to present). The most recent period of the third phase has enabled the fishery to maintain its catches and be labeled as one of the most sustainable fisheries worldwide. This article highlights the evolution of the legal system that provides for the current sustainable landings and governance of this fishery. Results show that General Fisheries Acts were enacted independently of failures to sustain anchovy landings. The three Peruvian Fisheries Acts were a reflection of broader national socio-political changes and were enacted mainly to define the role of the state and private investment and to delimit foreign involvement in the fishery industry. By contrast, the enactment of secondary legislation to control quotas and fishing seasons increased as the fishery moved towards stable landings. During this phase, enacted secondary legislation showed also a clear peak during strong positive sea surface anomalies driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 1997-1998, providing evidence of rapid adaptive management. The role of Fisheries Acts in defining access rights at the national level from a multilevel governance approach is discussed and further key elements that contributed to the transition towards sustainability are suggested.     

Multilevel modeling of NPP change and impacts of water resources in the Lower Heihe River Basin

Net primary productivity (NPP) lays the foundation for provision of various ecosystem services, and understanding the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP is of great significance to formulating appropriate management measures to guarantee the sustainable provision of essential ecosystem services. This study analyzed the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP in the lower Heihe River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. First, NPP was estimated with the C-FIX model, and then the multilevel model was used to analyze the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP during 2000–2008. Finally decomposition analysis was used to further analyze the contribution of influencing factors to NPP change during 2000–2008. The average NPP increased by approximately 9.07% during 2000–2008, and results of the multilevel model indicate that both the socioeconomic variables and demographic variables are useful in explaining NPP change. In particular, coefficients of rainfall and evapotranspiration which represent the water availability reached 0.0456 and 0.2956, respectively. Results of decomposition analysis suggested that the water availability played an important role in increasing NPP, with a contribution rate of 44.17%, and it is necessary to carry out some policies that can promote the water use efficiency to increase NPP under the background of climate change and intensified human activities. There are some uncertainties in the results of this study, but these results still can provide valuable reference information for the water resource management to increase the ecosystem service supply in the lower Heihe River Basin.