Investigation of the Calibration Function of Local Earthquake Magnitude （ ML ） in the Fujian-Taiwan Region

The author carefully selected earthquakes with M_L=4.0～5.0, 215 occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region. The attenuation characteristics of maximum displacement recorded by the Fujian digital network have been obtained by multi-analysis as follows:logA=2.07 231.1/Δ (150km≤Δ≤650km) And the corresponding expression of calibration function is, R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01) (150km≤Δ≤650km) Then, the author determined the magnitude and its error with the data from the Fujian network using the calibration function brought forward in 1997 and the above formula for 790 earthquakes occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region from September 1997 ～ August 2005. The result indicates that the average error of the network is 0.20 with the former and 0.18 with the latter. The average error is 0.13 with the latter with station correction. Compared with the magnitude determined by Taiwan seismologists, the magnitude value with the former is lower by 0.50 on average and that with the latter is higher by 0.08 on average.     

钾肥需求模拟研究

旨在模拟预测中国钾肥需求,为钾肥市场参与者和决策者提供基本的数据和理论支持。运用主成份分析法和多元回归计量经济模型模拟我国钾肥需求。首先,运用主成份分析法对钾肥需求影响因子进行降维处理;其次,采用多元统计非线性回归计量经济学模型模拟钾肥需求。结果表明:(1)钾肥需求与人均耕地、受灾面积、钾肥价格呈负相关关系;(2)钾肥需求与耕地、粮食用地、农产品价格存正相关关系;(3)钾肥需求预测可由较易得的人均耕地、耕地、粮食用地、受灾面积、农产品价格和钾肥价格数据代入模型模拟获得,且模拟数据与现实数据吻合较好;(4)此方法可较广泛运用,不需大量的野外试验和较大的工作量,且无空间跨度差异;(5)政府行为对钾肥需求有着极大的影响作用,政府应发挥其积极性,制定出一套有序的制度安排,以弥补市场本身潜在的问题,引导市场机制不断完善。     

商丘市空气质量统计预报方法

利用商丘市2002年5月24日~2003年9月23日的空气污染浓度资料和同期气象观测资料,分析了商丘市空气质量的时间分布规律及影响商丘市空气中PM10、SO2和NO2浓度的气象因子,并用多元线性回归方法建立了商丘市空气质量预报方程。