原子钟噪声的蒙特卡络模拟方法

讨论了原子钟噪声的蒙特卡络模拟方法．具体过程是：先产生模拟所需的正态分布随机数，从实际钟的阿仑方差估算出噪声电平，然后用１组递点函数产生高质量的模拟钟时差的随机序列．在对１台商品铯钟进行具体模拟后，给出了真实数据与模拟值的阿仑方差之问的相符程度，最后对实际问题进行了分析．     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.     

青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

一个简单食物链的能流实验

食物链能量转换是生态系统的主要功能之一。海洋生物生产就是海洋食物链能量流动的一种表现形式。它把来自以藻类为主的植物性生产，通过被食－取食多级转换，形成了贝、虾、鱼等各级动物性生产，这就为人类提供了丰富的渔业资源。海岸带水域是我国目前海洋开发的主攻目标，揭示这个海区中食物链能流转移过程，对其经济生物生产力估算和开发前景预测有着重要意义。测定自然条件下海洋食物链能流是极其困难的。借助实验结果进而推算，就比较方便。本研究选择我国海岸带水域中属于不同营养级的４个经济种，构成一个简单的人工食物链，即金藻（…     

成山卫沙坝潟湖链的形成和近期演化

山东荣成市成山头南侧发育了一条沙坝和一系列的湖 ,组成成山卫湖链 ,以面积最大的天鹅湖有关资料为主 ,运用粒度分析、软体动物鉴定、14 C测年等方法 ,对So5 ,Sh5 ,Sh1和Sh6孔岩心进行分析 ,揭示了该湖链的形成过程 :距今 70 0 0a左右 ,海水开始入侵 ,形成了荣成湾 ,距今 6 0 0 0a左右 ,沙坝和坝内的一系列半封闭湖形成 .根据沙坝层理的观测资料分析了湖形成后自然作用下的演化动态 ,并指出近年来由于人类活动加剧 ,严重影响了湖的演化过程     

Symbiotic Relations of Sediment-Agglutinating Nematodes and Bacteria in Detrital Habitats: The Enzyme-Sharing Concept

Abstract. A new concept (‘enzyme sharing’) concerning the interaction of marine nematodes and microbes in the degradation of sedimentary detritus is presented. Elements of this concept are (1) the notorious tendency of many aquatic nematodes to agglutinate detrital particles by mucus secretions, (2) new observations on the stimulation of microbial growth by nematodes in agar plates, and (3) literature data on limited endogenous proteolytic capacities of aquatic nematodes.
Observations on nematode‐microbe associations in agar plates prompted the conceptual synthesis. In agar medium without the addition of any nutrients a spectacular growth of bacteria was visible on the sinusoidal crawling trails of nematodes only 2 – 3 days after introduction of the worms (species of Adoncholaimus, Anoplostoma and Sabatieria). Juveniles of Anoplostoma that hatched in the agar cultures left their minute trails in the medium and these were rapidly occupied by bacteria. The nematodes repeatedly visited their bacterial trails, which persisted as a peculiar biotic structure for more than one year and survived the nematodes.
In sterile agar preparations containing the fluorogenic methylumbelliferyl‐β‐glucoside in the presence of the nematode Adoncholaimus, an enhanced fluorescence of the medium was visible, indicating β‐glucosidase activity. We therefore assume that oncholaimid nematodes discharge enzymes that alone, or in concert with microbial activities, contribute to the hydrolytic cleavage of refractory polysaccharides containing β‐glucosidic bonds such as agar components and cellulose. The sugars thus produced may then be taken up by the nematodes and concomitantly support the conspicuous growth of microbes. Since we did not observe any feeding of the nematodes on the associated microbes in agar plates, we question the nutritive potential of intact microbial cells for a number of nematodes abounding in detrital habitats, and call attention to the significance of ambient dissolved or adsorbed organic monomeric nutrients.
Consequently, we perceive the puzzling perpetual accretion of detrital organic particles to sediment agglutinations by nematodes as an adaptation for operating an ‘enzymatic reactor’ for the production of dissolved nutrients. We hypothesise a relationship of mutual commensalism of nematodes and heterotrophic microbes in detrital habitats and propose the term ‘enzyme sharing’ for this relationship. Both parties invest in a common enzyme pool that decomposes organic detritus for their nutrition. We present here evidence that nematodes contribute β‐glucosidase, which is involved in the cellulase system. Data from the literature suggest that microbial enzymatic processing of detrital proteins yields amino acids available to nematodes, which apparently have no efficient proteolytic enzyme system in their intestines.     

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

利用DInSAR和GPS综合方法估计地表3维形变速率

在分析基于贝叶斯统计和马尔科夫随机场理论的解析优化法的基础上,提出以GPS提供的高精度的水平形变速率作为约束,利用直接分解法,将DInSAR的斜距向形变速率分解成垂直形变速率。试验结果表明,直接分解法有效地综合了GPS的高水平精度与DInSAR的高垂直精度优点,且计算简单,克服了解析优化法可能出现的数值不稳定问题。