River management response to multi-decade changes in timing of reservoir inflows,Columbia River Basin,USA

Around the world, long-term changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are testing the ability of large managed water resource systems constructed in the 20th century to continue to meet objectives in the 21st century. Streamflow records for unregulated rivers upstream of reservoirs can be combined with records downstream of reservoirs using a paired-watershed framework and concepts of water resource system performance to assess how reservoir management has responded to long-term change. Using publicly available data, this study quantified how the intra-annual timing of inflows and outflows of 25 major reservoirs has shifted, how management has responded, and how this has influenced reliability and vulnerability of the water resource system in the 668,000 km² Columbia River basin from 1950 to 2012. Reservoir inflows increased slightly in early spring and declined in late spring to early fall, but reservoir outflows increased in late summer from 1950 to 2012. Average inflows to reservoirs in the low flow period exceeded outflows in the1950s, but inflows are now less than outflows. Reservoirs have increased hedging, that is, they have stored more water during the spring, in order to meet the widening gap between inflows and outflows during the summer low flow period. For a given level of reliability (the fraction of time flow targets were met), vulnerability (the maximum departure from the flow target) was greater during periods with lower than average inflows. Thus, the water management system in this large river basin has adjusted to multi-decade trends of declining inflows, but vulnerability, that is, the potential for excess releases in spring and shortfalls in summer, has increased. This study demonstrates the value of combining publicly available historical data on streamflow with concepts from paired-watershed analyses and metrics of water resource performance to detect, evaluate, and manage water resource systems in large river basins.     

一类带马氏切换与时滞的未定权益模型的对冲策略

在风险资产服从一类带马尔科夫模式切换（马氏切换）的时滞随机微分方程模型的情形下,考虑了一个以上述风险资产为标的资产的欧式未定权益,利用Esscher变换找到了等价鞅测度,并在此基础上得到该权益价格过程的鞅表示.同时,在资产价格过程的系数满足一定条件的假设下,给出了在由马氏切换的出现而导致的不完备市场中,通过最小化残余风险而求得的最优连续对冲策略.     

The ecology of Lerista labialis (Scincidae) in the Simpson Desert: reproduction and diet

This study investigated the diet and reproductive cycle of the southern sandslider skink Lerista labialis, in the dunefields of the Simpson Desert, central Australia. We dissected preserved specimens to obtain gut contents and measure gonad volume, and also live-captured animals from 1999 to 2000 to assess the impact of rainfall on population structure and body condition. This skink breeds during the austral summer. Males start spermatogenesis in July and testes volume is largest in December. Females have enlarged ovarian follicles in November and produce oviducal eggs from November to February. One or more clutches of two eggs are produced per breeding season. L. labialis specializes on termites, which represent 78% of the diet by percentage occurrence. The remaining 22% of this skink's diet comprises Hemiptera, Neuroptera and unknown prey items. Body condition, and probably increased reproduction and juvenile survival, were higher in 2000 (wet year) than 1999 (relatively dry year); proportion of juveniles also increased in the population in autumn, winter and summer 2000 compared to the previous year. Late rainfall in autumn 2000 may have triggered these demographic changes by increasing prey accessibility. Long-term research is required into growth rates, longevity and inter-annual population dynamics of L. labialis to fully evaluate its life history strategy.