黑龙江省未来30、50年气候预测

通过CCCma、CCSR、CSIRO、Gfdl和Hadley气候模式对黑龙江省其中包括齐齐哈尔、佳木斯、哈尔滨、牡丹江等4区未来50年(2005～2050年)，在GG、GS情景下数值模拟。结果表明(采用GS结果)，未来2030、2050年气温均有较大增高。其中2030年年平均气温可增高1．94℃；春季提高2．06℃：；夏季提高1．29℃；秋季提高1．79℃；冬季提高2．66℃，2050年又继续增加．年平均气温将提高2．42℃；春季提高2．13℃；夏季提高1．68℃；秋季提高2．56℃；冬季提高3．21℃。冬季是四季中增幅最大的季节，其次秋季、春季和夏季。如果按GG情景下，未来气温还要高出1℃。增温中心在西部齐齐哈尔，增温较小为牡丹江。从哈尔滨年蒸发量来看，2030年可增加11％，2050年可增加13％。     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

TGR-2050型验潮仪在珠江口潮汐测量中的应用分析

使用压力式TGR-2050型验潮仪,在珠江口等河道入海口测量潮汐时,误差比较大;针对珠江口潮汐的特点,分析和研究了大气压扰动、潮流、海水密度、压力感应零点漂移等因素对潮汐测量带来的误差,有针对性地提出解决方案,并通过实验证明了方案的可行性。     

地理学展望:2050年的地理学

尽管空间、地方、区域、环境是所谓"永恒的地理命题",但大部分的人文、环境地理学研究中的"时间"主题都聚焦在研究地方、景观和区域的当前或过去,却少有研究者对其未来产生兴趣。研究的缺乏可能要归因于对此前社会、文化、政治、经济地理学者所做的相关研究不熟悉,或者对这些研究所具有的价值和意义估计不足。本文希望通过梳理在不同年代地理学界对未来地理学的研究做过哪些工作,以及未来还可以在哪些方面做出贡献,来弥补这一缺陷。20世纪70年代早期,地理学者开始关注当时正在显现的后工业经济、社会的不同特征,信息和通讯技术的革新,城市未来,变化中的社会秩序,区域和全球尺度上的资源短缺和环境改造等一系列问题。部分未来地理学者从"带有地理色彩"的科幻作家们以及其他各学科的学者那里借鉴了许多观点和概念。这些学者们的代表作品,在文中列出的书目以及两本主要的跨学科杂志The Futurist(由世界未来学会出版)以及Future Studies中可以看到。未来学家们所使用的预测方法和模型多种多样,如趋势外推、交叉影响分析、模型模拟、情景假设、德尔菲法等,这些方法各有其优势和劣势。当前,对未来的研究已经引起了企业界、教育界、政策研究界等的重视,这一点可以从学术性刊物、奖项,以及对2050年及其以后的世界规划中,对未来研究的兴趣日益增长得到证明。对未来的研究聚焦于世界南方(发展中国家)、北方(发达国家)、区域经济与人口,以及全球环境的未来,不仅需要考虑"确定性"(期待中的世界),也同样要考虑"不确定性"以及"不愿意看到却又可能出现"的一面。本文给出了当前至2050年时段地理学者可能需要考虑的29个重点研究主题,涉及经济、文化、社会、政治及环境地理领域。同时,本文还讨论了6个针对中国经济、文化、政治、环境领域未来发展的研究主题,包括中国的"绿色化",作为崛起的世界性强国的中国,中国消费者及其伦理观,作为全球创新领袖的中国,人口问题和数字鸿沟,以及未来的宗教/信仰问题。为便于对未来研究的讨论和分析,文中给出了7幅富有新意的专题图,分别描绘了欧洲世界的亚洲化趋势,未来的城市系统,重大洲际交通工程,不同区域的时间文化,自治区域和新的国家,以及环境地带迁移等。最后,本文建议中国地理学界运用德尔菲法,对中国的未来从经济、社会、环境等方面进行审视。其结果对于区域和国家层面规划制订将是非常具有价值的,也将使地理学者在推动建设社会、环境美好未来的过程中扮演更为重要的角色。同时,地理学者也需要与其他学科的学者们紧密合作,共同研究与国家、区域乃至全球未来相关的"时间"主题。     

Projection of Future Precipitation Extremes Change (2001-2050) in the Yangtze River Basin

 Daily maximum rainfall (R1D) was higher in the Jialing River basin, the Taihu Lake area and the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River basin in the 1990s, and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model simulation and the observed data about extreme precipitation (R1D). Under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, R1Ds are all projected to be in increasing trends in the upper Yangtze River basin during 2001-2050, and R1D shows a more significant increasing tendency under the A2 scenario when compared with the A1B scenario before 2020. With respect to the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, an increasing tendency is projected before 2025, and since then the increasing tendency will become insignificant. There might be more floods to the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts to the north in the next decades.     

星站差分GPS系统在地震监测中的应用

为考察SF-2050星站差分GPS在实际使用中的定位精度、收敛时间与定化重复性等性能指标.对其进行了定位功能测试,详述了测试过程与测试结果的得出,证明该系统具有定位精度高、定位重复性好等优点,辅以一定的使用技巧,可进一步提高其工作效能,能够满足地震监测行业中测点定位的要求.     

南非交通基础设施建设的潜力与方向评估

交通基础设施作为经济发展的“先行官”,对国民经济发展具有巨大推动作用。参与南非重大基础设施建设,对加强中国与南非战略合作、推动中国企业走入南非投资兴业具有重要意义。2010年,南非《全国运输总体规划(2005-2050)》（即 NATMAP 2050）正式出台,对南非铁路、公路、航空、港口、管道等基础设施进行了详实的安排,总投资额高达7500亿兰特。本文通过深入解读该规划,识别出南非铁路、港口等交通基础设施领域的投资重点和重大项目。在此基础上,结合南非城镇体系分布、矿产资源开发、国际贸易发展等方面的现状特征分析,系统评价了南非高铁客运通道、大宗货运通道、港口体系的投资潜力和方向,筛选出投资潜力较大的关键项目,以期为我国更好地参与南非经济发展进程提供决策支持,同时也为我国企业到南非投资创业提供参考。     

“美国2050”空间战略规划及启示

“美国2050”空间战略规划是美国第一个综合性的全国国土空间战略规划,由联邦政府提议,旨在研究和构建美国未来40-50年空间发展的基本框架,以应对21世纪面临的各种挑战。在分析“美国2050”空间战略规划制订的背景的基础上,文章从基础设施规划、巨型都市区域规划、发展滞后地区规划、和大型景观保护规划四个方面系统介绍了“美国2050”空间战略规划的核心内容。归纳总结了“美国2050”空间战略规划的特点,探讨了“美国2050”空间战略规划在理念、方法、机制等方面对中国国土空间规划的启示。     

2050年前长江流域极端降水预估

Daily maximum rainfall(R1D)was higher in the Jialing River basin,the Taihu Lake area and the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River basin in the 1990s,and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model simulation and the observed data about extreme precipitation(R1D).Under the IPCC SRES A2,A1B,and B1 scenarios,R1Ds are all projected to be in increasing trends in the upper Yangtze River basin during 2001-2050,and R1D shows a more significant increasing tendency under the A2 scenario when compared with the A1B scenario before 2020.With respect to the middle and lower Yangtze River basin,an increasing tendency is projected before 2025,and since then the increasing tendency will become insignificant.There might be more floods to the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts to the north in the next decades.     

Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice Mirrors Increasing CO2 on Decadal Time Scale

Arctic sea ice is a keystone indicator of greenhouse-gas induced global climate change, which is expected to be amplified in the Arctic. Here we directly compare observed variations in arctic sea-ice extent and CO2 since the beginning of the 20th century, identifying a strengthening linkage, such that in recent decades the rate of sea-ice decrease mirrors the increase in CO2, with r ~ –0.95 over the last four decades, thereby indicating that 90% (r2 ~ 0.90) of the decreasing sea-ice extent is empirically “accounted for” by the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. The author presents an empirical relation between annual sea-ice extent and global atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in which sea-ice reductions are linearly, inversely proportional to the magnitude of increase of CO2 over the last few decades. This approximates sea-ice changes during the most recent four decades, with a proportionality constant of 0.030 million km2 per ppmv CO2. When applied to future emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this relationship results in substantially faster ice decreases up to 2050 than predicted by IPCC models. However, departures from this projection may arise from non-linear feedback effects and/or temporary natural variations on interannual timescales, such as the record minimum of sea-ice extent observed in September 2007.Citation: Johannessen, O. M., 2008: Decreasing arctic sea ice mirrors increasing CO2 on decadal time scale, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 51-56