典型带状云系强降雨过程卫星云图演变特征分析

通过对两个典型的带状云系的强降水过程的卫星云图进行定量分析,初步验证了可以用云带0℃边界反映冷高压和副高的活动态势,揭示了降雨强度与云带强度指数及TBB面积指数有很好的对应关系。同时,还研究了暴雨落区与对流云团活动范围的关系,强降水时段与对流云团的发展阶段的对应关系。     

2017年6月一次华南沿海强降水的对流性特征及热动力机制研究

在华南北部或长江流域有锋面雨带活动时,华南沿海常常会出现对流性强降水,突发性很强,给预报造成很大的困惑。文章采用多种观测资料、ERA-Interim 0.125°×0.125°逐6 h再分析资料,对2017年6月15～16日华南北部的锋面雨带及沿海强降雨过程开展分析,对比了二者降水特征与环境条件,重点探讨了该次过程华南沿海强降雨的对流触发与维持,揭示了一种由边界层风切变强迫造成涡度持续发展的动力效应。结果表明:（1）锋面雨带与华南沿海强降雨在降水特征上有显著差异,并各有特点。锋面雨带以大尺度层状云降水和弱对流性降水为主,降水强度东段弱西段强。沿海强降雨以对流性降水为主,局地性强、落区集中、强降雨持续时间长、夜发性明显。（2）水汽方程诊断发现沿海强降雨在边界层水平水汽平流项、垂直水汽输送项比锋面雨带东段具有更大量级,大气层结反映出更深厚的暖层、湿层与对流不稳定,是二者降水强度及性质差异的主要原因。（3）莲花山、峨眉嶂造成气流侧向摩擦与正面阻挡促使漯河河谷内垂直涡度发展,暖湿空气堆积上升并达到自由对流高度,触发了华南沿海最初的降水。夜间建立的西南风急流使边界层垂直风速切变增强,水平涡度倾斜部分转化为垂直涡度发展,与风速水平切变造成的垂直涡度叠加,是强降雨持续时间长的动力机制。海陆边界摩擦差异造成水平、垂直两个方向的风切变增强,共同强迫垂直涡度发展是此次强降雨过程对流维持的动力效应。（4）方程诊断表明华南沿海强降雨由对流潜热释放造成的垂直上升速度占总垂直上升速度的39%～75%,持续、稳定的对流潜热释放是强降雨持续时间长的热力驱动因素。     

贵州强降雨天气过程决策服务模式

【目的】为深入总结贵州气象防灾减灾工作中面向党政领导和相关部门的灾害性天气决策气象服务模式。【方法】在服务需求分析的基础上,结合典型案例,对近年来强降水等灾害性天气过程中的预报服务机制进行总结凝炼。【结果】提出灾害性天气“过程前、过程中、过程后”关键时间点的跟进式气象服务“4+3”模式和强降雨临灾服务的“24-6-2-2”递进式预报服务模式。【结论】 经近年来实践检验,相关服务模式能有效应对强降水等灾害性天气过程,有力支撑党政领导和部门决策应对灾害性天气,有效助力防灾减灾救灾工作。     

强降雨作用下金场坝水库边坡稳定性分析与治理评价

以FLAC3D数值模拟计算为主要研究手段,基于结构动力学非线性有限元理论,结合某水库左岸边坡实例,对强降雨作用下滑坡体应力、位移、塑性区域进行研究,以及采用混合抗滑措施后的加固效果进行评价.结果表明:强降雨作用下,滑坡体内部主要以压应力为主,不存在拉应力;滑坡产生的最大竖向位移位于滑坡体的中下部;塑性区域面积存在集中现...     

Impact of 4DVAR assimilation of rainfall data on the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems in a mei-yu heavy rainfall event

The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales.
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.     

江西省2007年1-6月自然灾害公报(摘录)

2007年1—6月,江西省自然灾害总体发生程度略轻于常年同期。受天气气候等因素的影响,全省自然灾害主要以暴雨洪涝、雷电、风雹、山体滑坡、泥石流为主,低温冻害和大雾等也有发生。全省先后遭遇5次强降雨袭击,呈现历时短、强度大、对流性强的特点,造成的损失较重。雷击灾害损失严重,死亡75人。     

0605号台风"格美"在江西致灾的气象成因分析

运用常规观测资料、T213资料等,对0605号台风“格美”的移动路径和暴雨成因进行了分析。分析结果表明,“格美”登陆后虽然强度迅速减弱,但由于其减弱后的低气压环流在江西逗留时间长,所携带的水汽和造成的辐合上升条件足以造成江西出现暴雨天气。通过分析探空、地面加密自动站和闪电定位等资料进一步指出,地面中尺度辐合线、对流不稳定和地形抬升的共同作用,加剧了赣西南局地降雨的强度。由于前期台风“碧利斯”已造成赣州市出现较强降水,赣南土壤含水量、地下水位和江河湖库水位均较高,使得“格美”造成的短时强降雨迅速产生有效径流和汇流,导致局地山洪暴发而致灾。     

贵州水城区煤洞坡组滑坡形成机理研究

2021年8月21日,贵州省水城区煤洞坡组发生顺层岩质滑坡,方量约13.5×10⁴m³,基于现场调勘查和无人机倾斜摄影,对滑坡的变形过程、形成机理进行了分析。研究表明:斜坡岩土结构及地形地貌为滑坡提供了基础条件,滑坡地下井巷开挖及地上设施修建等人类工程活动是滑坡形成的主要因素,强降雨为滑坡启动提供了诱发条件;其失稳模式可以描述为蠕滑-拉裂-滑移模式。     

兴安盟2006年夏季强降雨天气特点分析

通过对兴安盟2006年夏季发生的4次强降雨（3次暴雨和1次短时强降雨）的天气形势、物理量特征和不同数值模式对降水量的预报进行了分析，结果表明：低空的暖湿切变是强降雨的直接影响系统，日本海和鄂霍茨克海高压的阻挡对暴雨天气的发生起了重要的作用。强烈的上升运动、充沛的水汽输送和能量的积累是强降雨天气发生的必要条件。     

Cold Air Activities in July 2004 and Its Impact on Intense Rainfalls over Southwest China

The severe rainfall events in the mid-summer of July 2004 and the roles of cold air in the forma- tion of heavy precipitation are investigated by using daily observational precipitation data of China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.The results show that the severe rainfalls in Southwest China are closely related to the cold air activities from the mid-high latitudes,and the events take place under the cooperative effects of mid-high latitude circulation and low latitude synoptic regimes.It is the merging of a cold vortex over mid-latitudes with the northward landing typhoon and eastward Southwest China Vortex,as well as the abrupt transformation from a transversal trough into an upright one that causes three large alterations of mid-high atmospheric circulation respectively in the early and middle ten days of this month.Then,the amplitude of long waves soon magnifies,leading to the unusual intrusion of cold air to low-latitude areas in the mid-summer.Meanwhile,the warm and humid southwest summer monsoon is quite active.The strong interactions of cold air and summer monsoon over Southwest China result in the large-scale convective rain- falls on the southern side of cold air. With regard to the activities of cold air,it can influence rainfalls in three prominent ways.Firstly,the incursion of upper-level cold air is often accompanied by partial southerly upper-level jet.The ascending branch of the corresponding secondary circulation,which is on the left front side of the jet center,provides the favorite dynamic upward motion for the rainfalls.Secondly,the southward movement of cold air contributes to the establishment of atmospheric baroclinic structure,which would lead to baroclinic disturbances.The atmospheric disturbances associated with the intrusion of cold air can destroy the potential instability strat- ification,release the convective available potential energy(CAPE)and finally cause convective activities.In addition,the advection processes of dry and cold air at the upper level along with the advection of humid and warm air at the lower level are rather significant for the reestablishment of potential instability in the precipitation area,which is one of the crucial factors contributing to persistent rainfalls.