南海热带气旋数值预报模式与全球谱模式的嵌套试验

分析了各嵌套变量的作用和效果，发现采用部分变量嵌套就能取得一定效果，各变量的作用也不完全相同。这样，可以选取作用大，质量好，易处理的变量进行嵌套。并相应地提出了一个边界嵌套处理方案，应用于南海带热带气旋数值预报有限区模式（ＴＬ１０）与全球谐模式（Ｔ６３）的嵌套过程，通过数值预报试验，表明采用该嵌套处理方案能够取得良好的效果。     

Vegetation patterns and diversity along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of northern Oman

Little is known about the effects of grazing on vegetation composition on the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this study therefore was to analyse the vegetation response to environmental conditions of open woodlands along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of Oman. The species composition, vegetation structure, grazing damage and several environmental variables were investigated for 62 samples using a nested plot design. Classification analysis and a Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA) were used to define vegetation types and to identify underlying environmental gradients. The relationship between environmental variables and diversity was analysed using correlation coefficients and a main-effects ANOVA. The plant species richness followed a unimodal distribution along the altitudinal gradient with the highest number of species at the intermediate altitudinal belt. The cluster analysis led to five vegetation groups: The Sideroxylon mascatense–Dodonaea viscosa group on grazed and the Olea europaea–Fingerhuthia africana group on ungrazed plateau sites at 2000 m a.s.l., the Ziziphus spina-christi–Nerium oleander group at wadi sites and the Moringa peregrina–Pteropyrum scoparium group at 1200 m a.s.l, and the Acacia gerrardii–Leucas inflata group at 1700 m a.s.l. The CVA indicated a clear distinction of the groups obtained by the agglomerative cluster analysis. The landform, altitude and grazing intensity were found to be the most important variables distinguishing between clusters. Overgrazing of the studied rangeland is an increasing environmental problem, whereas the plant composition at ungrazed sites pointed to a relatively fast and high regeneration potential of the local vegetation.     

广义G变论与地球运动略论

本文应用Ｇ 变新理论研究地球运动的规律,探讨地球上发生的各种地质作用。地壳运动的起因以及怎样把握运动的规律是地学界长期探索而至今仍颇有争论的一个重大科学问题。本文从对最基本的物理数学原理（开普勒第二定律和机械能守衡定律以及爱因斯坦相对论） 和定义拷问出发,寻找自然科学中某些研究难以突破的症结。从牛顿力学的局限中发现和建立更为准确的不仅限于研究地球运动规律的物理原理,即广义Ｇ 变论。正如天体运动轨道没有绝对的圆一样,该理论强调Ｇ 的变化的普遍性。强调物质的等能量运动和分布。从而对诸如天体运行、Ｇ 变规律、地球形状与运动等方面在理论和研究方法上提出了全新的观点     

Canonical variate analysis with unequal covariance matrices: Generalizations of the usual solution

Canonical variate analysis is extended for use when the covariance matrices are not equal. Linear combinations of variates are derived by generalizing either a weighted between-groups approach or the likelihood-ratio test and the associated noncentrality matrix. The usual solution and the two generalizations are compared via generated data for a few typical configurations of means in a situation in which the covariance matrices are in fact equal. The MSE of the canonical variate coefficients and group means for the generalizations are approximately three times those for the usual solution, due to corresponding changes in the variances. Two examples are discussed.     

Spatial variation in meristic and morphometric characteristics of sardine Sardinops sagax around the coast of southern Africa

Spatial variability in phenotypic characteristics within a fish population may be used to infer the existence of multiple stocks, and knowledge of the population structure of exploited species is important for their sustainable management. In this study we investigated geographic variability in meristic (vertebral count) and morphometric (body shape) characteristics of sardine Sardinops sagax from three southern African regions: Namibia, the South African west coast, and the South African south coast. There were significant regional differences in vertebral counts, with Namibian fish tending to have more vertebrae than South African fish, but with no difference between sardine off the South African west and south coasts. Body shape was characterised using morphometric landmarks, and shape changes were investigated using geometric morphometrics, with influences on fish shape assessed using multivariate regressions. To remove the effects of allometry, the 22 shape variables (represented by Procrustes coordinates) were regressed against fish size (represented by centroid size). There was a significant allometric effect, which was removed by using the residuals of these regressions in further analyses. A multivariate multiple regression was applied to the 22 size-corrected shape variables and to three covariates: condition factor, stomach fullness and fat stage. The significant influence of these covariates was removed by using the residuals from this regression in a canonical variate analysis, where corrected shape variables were classified in relation to region, year and sex. The Mahalanobis distances from the canonical variate analysis differed significantly for most combinations of classifier variables, with clear separations among the three regions. Sardinops sagax off Namibia had thicker bodies and more contracted tail regions than South African fish, whereas S. sagax off the South African south coast had thinner bodies and smaller heads than those off the west coast. These results support the hypothesis of multiple sardine stocks around southern Africa.     

GIS 系统在海南石碌铁矿成矿预测中的应用

GIS(地理信息系统)成矿预测技术是依据多元地学变量空间信息进行成矿预测及综合研究的新技术.GIS成矿预测工作,多元地学数据库建立是基础,软件设计是关键.根据石碌铁矿野外考察结果及对石碌铁矿成矿规律的认识,确定将双透岩、含矿层位、古地貌、构造、重力异常5个地学变量作为成矿预测变量.将石碌含矿层按50×50×50m规格划分为15224个待预测块,用成矿预测变量对待预测块进行综合打分,统计已知含矿预测块同成矿预测变量综合打分的关系,确定每个待预测块的成矿概率.通过预测,在石碌铁矿外围,一级成矿预测块2618块,有望找到一亿多吨富铁矿.GIS成矿预测技术为危机矿山外围及深部找矿提供了新的思路及方法.     

1：5万登龙、热加幅的成矿预测研究

利用已知矿床（点）的地质特征，采用数学方法对变量进行筛选，提出最佳的变量组合，对工作区进行综合信息预测，最后，圈出成矿远景区．     

震源构造发震概率的初步研究

“入”字型构造是一种发震构造几何类型。它亦即是一种重要的震源构造。本文用“入”型为造为例,以它的力学模拟计算数据为基础给出了一个计算震源构造发震概率的粗算方法。 本文取Poisson分布为震源构造处发震概率对有关物理量分布的原型。按我们的数据,一个具体构造的发震概率与震源处应变能密度最大值(e_max),最大破裂值(F_max)和泊松比倒数(1/v)的各自增减有关。为确定一个震源构造的发震概率,可先计算它在不同参数下的典型力学情况,然后以e_max,F_max和1/v作独立变量分别算出单位增量的发震概率。最后,再按公式P(e_max,F_max,v)=Ak(e_max-e°_max)(F_max-F°_amx)(1/v-1/v°)×exp{-(100η_1(e_max一e°_max)+100η_2(F_max-F°_max)+η_3(1/v-1/v°))} 计算该震源处的发震概率,其中e°_max,F_max和v°分别为它们的标准值,A与e_max,F_max和1/v单位增量发震概率有关,而放大系数k则与震源区断层本构律、其它有关物性和震源规模有关。 本文为从力学的数学实验计算数据提供了一个寻求震源处发震概率的初步方法。为此,本文已对本方法做过某些理论上的论证。从实际结果看,我们认为本方法有某种合理性,且结合实际可把它使用于其它几何构造类型。     

枣庄市夏季降水预报集成系统

应用多元决策加权法,把６－９月份５种短期预报方法以不同的权重进行集成,对本地区３个降水量级作出较准确和客观的概率预报,效果较好。