自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

Discriminating between pore‐filling load and bed‐structure load: a new porosity‐based method,exemplified for the river Rhine

Sediments contained in the river bed do not necessarily contribute to morphological change. The finest part of the sediment mixture often fills the pores between the larger grains and can be removed without causing a drop in bed level. The discrimination between pore‐filling load and bed‐structure load, therefore, is of practical importance for morphological predictions. In this study, a new method is proposed to estimate the cut‐off grain size that forms the boundary between pore‐filling load and bed‐structure load. The method evaluates the pore structure of the river bed geometrically. Only detailed grain‐size distributions of the river bed are required as input to the method. A preliminary validation shows that the calculated porosity and cut‐off size values agree well with experimental data. Application of the new cut‐off size method to the river Rhine demonstrates that the estimated cut‐off size decreases in a downstream direction from about 2 to 0·05 mm, covariant with the downstream fining of bed sediments. Grain size fractions that are pore‐filling load in the upstream part of the river thus gradually become bed‐structure load in the downstream part. The estimated (mass) percentage of pore‐filling load in the river bed ranges from 0% in areas with a unimodal river bed, to about 22% in reaches with a bimodal sand‐gravel bed. The estimated bed porosity varies between 0·15 and 0·35, which is considerably less than the often‐used standard value of 0·40. The predicted cut‐off size between pore‐filling load and bed‐structure load (D_c,p) is fundamentally different from the cut‐off size between wash‐load and bed‐material load (D_c,w), irrespective of the method used to determine D_c,p or D_c,w. D_c,w values are in the order of 10^?1 mm and mainly dependent on the flow characteristics, whereas D_c,p values are generally much larger (about 10⁰ mm in gravel‐bed rivers) and dependent on the bed composition. Knowledge of D_c,w is important for the prediction of the total sediment transport in a river (including suspended fines that do not interact with the bed), whereas knowledge of D_c,p helps to improve morphological predictions, especially if spatial variations in D_c,p are taken into account. An alternative to using a spatially variable value of D_c,p in morphological models is to use a spatially variable bed porosity, which can also be predicted with the new method. In addition to the morphological benefits, the new method also has sedimentological applications. The possibility to determine quickly whether a sediment mixture is clast‐supported or matrix‐supported may help to better understand downstream fining trends, sediment entrainment thresholds and variations in hydraulic conductivity.     

Neoliberalizing environmental governance? Land trusts, private conservation and nature on the Oak Ridges Moraine

With recent changes in the ways that state agencies are implementing their environmental policies, the line between public and private is becoming increasingly blurred. This includes shifts from state-led implementation of environmental policies to conservation plans that are implemented and managed by multi-sectoral networks of governments, the private sector and environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs). This paper examines land trusts as private conservation initiatives that become part of neoliberal governance arrangements and partnerships that challenge our conceptions of environmental preservation and democratic participation. The paper starts with an examination of the concept of neoliberalized environmental governance. Next, it addresses the shifting social constructions of property and land in the context of protecting large scale ecosystems. Through a case study of the extension of new environmental governance arrangements on the Oak Ridges Moraine in Ontario, we examine the relationships that have formed between different levels of the state and environmental non-governmental organizations. Finally, we analyze the expansion of land trusts and private conservation initiatives that are predicated on private land ownership and the commodification of nature, the emerging discourses and practices of private conservation, and how these are implicated in the privatization and neoliberalization of nature.     

Probing the (in)compatibilities of social theory and policy relevance in Piers Blaikie’s political ecology

One of Piers Blaikie’s most important contributions to the development of political ecology is his critique of land and resource conservation policy in the global South. In this paper I trace the development of Blaikie’s ideas about the policy relevance of political ecology, focusing particularly on the challenges posed by the introduction of poststructural social theory into the field. I begin by revisiting Blaikie’s earlier critiques of environment and development policy. This will provide the departure point to explore how his thinking on the relationship of theory and policy and of academic and development practices has evolved in subsequent writings. I have invented two personas, “early Blaikie” and “late Blaikie”, to facilitate this task. Second, I want to probe some of the challenges that late Blaikie presents for doing political ecology research, to some extent by pitting early Blaikie against late Blaikie and letting them hash it out. Third, I turn to my own and others’ research and consultation experiences as a way to examine the possibilities for reconciling theoretically driven critiques with policy relevant research.     

库车坳陷大北地区下白垩统巴什基奇克组储层成因地质分挝

塔里木盆地库车坳陷大北地区白垩系巴什基奇克组储层以细一中粒岩屑砂岩为主夹少量长石岩屑砂岩,杂基为铁泥质和泥质(2%～10%).胶结物以方解石(3%～15%)为主.粘土矿物以伊利石、绿泥石和伊/蒙混层为主,不含高岭石,伊/蒙混层中的蒙皂石含量一般为(15～20)%;主要孔隙组合为残余原生粒问孔-溶蚀孔-微孔隙,占储集空间总量的(50～90)%,其次为构造缝-溶蚀孔,主要的孔隙类型为溶蚀孔和裂缝,总体属于低孔低渗-特低孔特低渗储层.综合分析认为:阶段性的前陆构造逆冲推覆作用对沉积旋回性、水体盐度变化及物源区距离变化的控制至关重要;构造活跃期扇三角洲前缘环境中形成的差分选中-粗砂岩、近源快速堆积造成的高岩屑含量、干旱成湖导致的高碳酸盐胶结和早成岩期相对深埋-后期持续快速深埋压实作用,是特低孔特低渗储层的主要成因;而较优质储层足构造平缓期辫状河三角洲前缘环境中形成的分选好的中-细砂岩、早期表生溶蚀及弱碳酸盐胶结作用、早期构造破裂的复合作用及其叠加效应的结果.     

辽东湾S2冰侧限剪切强度的试验研究

利用试验方法系统地研究了辽东湾S2型海冰侧限剪切强度随剪切应变速率、加载方向、法向应力、温度和冰内孔隙率的变化规律。介绍了S2型海冰各向异性特点及剪切应变速率对剪切破坏方式的效应和韧脆破坏转变的条件。分析了不同加载方向海冰峰值剪切强度的差异 ,获得 - 6 2℃温度下S2冰内摩擦角和内聚力分别为 42°和 70 0kPa。利用统计分析给出峰值剪切强度与冰温和孔隙率的试验关系     

利用归一化层速度预测和研究储层物性的方法

归一化层速度是对任意深度处的层速度进行归一化处理的一种速度形式，归一化处理的目的是把任意深度处的层速度转换为与深度无关的格式，归一化后层速度的横向变化主要取决于地层岩性，孔隙度等物性的变化，利用这一特点可以方便地利用已知钻井资料对其进行标定，比较简单地进行地层岩性，孔隙度等特性的预测。实际应用表明，其预测结果与钻井揭示吻合较好，预测效果令人满意。     

黄海测区空气微生物含量估计

本文对黄海测区空气微生物作了一次测定 ,结果表明空气中海洋性细菌、真菌的检出率分别为 52 .4 %和 4 7.6 %。陆源性细菌、真菌的检出率分别为80 .0 %和 6 0 .0 %。陆源性微生物出现机率大于海洋性的。空气微生物以细菌为主。测区平均的海洋性空气细菌、真菌、总菌量及真菌 /总菌 %分别为 592 .6 ,32 9.1 ,92 1 .7CFU·m-3 及 35.4。平均的陆源性空气细菌、真菌、总菌量及真菌 /总菌 %分别为 6 89.1、377.9、1 0 6 7.0CFU·m-3 及 35.7。文章分析了空气微生物的时空分布状态。指出测区空气微生物状态反映了海 -气、海 -陆、人和自然的相互作用。     

New basis for the constitutive modelling of aggregated soils

Natural and compacted soils are usually characterized by aggregation of particles. The mechanical behaviour of these materials depends on soil structure. The oedometric compression tests performed on aggregated samples presented here showed that these materials exhibit a yield limit depending not only on stress history and stress state but also on soil structure. Evidence is provided using the neutron tomography technique. These results revealed that soil structure modification occurs together with plastic deformations. The experimental results are used to propose a new state parameter to quantify the soil structure. Based on pore-scale experimental observations, an evolution law for this parameter is proposed as a function of associated plastic strains. Considering both soil fabric and inter-particle bonding effects, a new yield limit depending on stress state, stress history and soil structure is introduced for the aggregated soils. Accordingly, a new constitutive framework consistent with strain hardening plasticity is proposed to consider soil structure effects in the modelling of aggregated soils.     

日本自然灾害现状与新态势

日本是一个多灾且严重的国家,依据最新资料,分析了日本自然灾害的现状特征;自然灾害影响社会经济发展,而社会经济变化可能成为新的致灾因素并形成新的灾害形式。本文特别对城市化、过疏化、高龄化和网络化与灾害进行了论述;最后论述了“自助”“共助”和“公助”三位一体的防灾基本对策的内容。这些对正处于高速经济发展和城市化的我国来说,具有重要的借鉴作用。