Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model

A coupling procedure between a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2.3) and a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model (GREMLINS) has been elaborated. The resulting coupled model describes the evolution of atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their mutual interactions. It is used to perform several simulations of the Last Deglaciation period to identify the physical mechanisms at the origin of the deglaciation process. Our baseline experiment, forced by insolation and atmospheric CO₂, produces almost complete deglaciation of past northern hemisphere continental ice sheets, although ice remains over the Cordilleran region at the end of the simulation and also in Alaska and Eastern Siberia. Results clearly demonstrate that, in this study, the melting of the North American ice sheet is critically dependent on the deglaciation of Fennoscandia through processes involving switches of the thermohaline circulation from a glacial mode to a modern one and associated warming of the northern hemisphere. A set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to test the relative importance of both forcing factors and internal processes in the deglaciation mechanism. It appears that the deglaciation is primarily driven by insolation. However, the atmospheric CO₂ modulates the timing of the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and results relative to Laurentide illustrate the existence of threshold CO₂ values, that can be translated in terms of critical temperature, below which the deglaciation is impeded. Finally, we show that the beginning of the deglaciation process of the Laurentide ice sheet may be influenced by the time at which the shift of the thermohaline circulation from one mode to the other occurs.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...     

Ethanol Fuels: Energy Balance, Economics, and Environmental Impacts Are Negative

Several studies suggest that the $1.4 billion in government subsidies are encouraging the ethanol program without substantial benefits to the U.S. economy. Large ethanol industries and a few U.S. government agencies, such as the USDA, support the production of ethanol. Corn-farmers receive minimal profits. In the U.S. ethanol system, considerably more energy, including high-grade fossil fuel, is required to produce ethanol than is available in the energy-ethanol output. Specifically about 29% more energy is used to produce a gallon of ethanol than the energy in a gallon of ethanol. Fossil energy powers corn production and the fermentation/distillation processes. Increasing subsidized ethanol production will take more feed from livestock production, and is estimated to currently cost consumers an additional $1 billion per year. Ethanol production increases environmental degradation. Corn production causes more total soil erosion than any other crop. Also, corn production uses more insecticides, herbicides, and nitrogen fertilizers than any other crop. All these factors degrade the agricultural and natural environment and contribute to water pollution and air pollution. Increasing the cost of food and diverting human food resources to the costly inefficient production of ethanol fuel raise major ethical questions. These occur at a time when more than half of the world's population is malnourished. The ethical priority for corn and other food crops should be for food and feed. Subsidized ethanol produced from U.S. corn is not a renewable energy source.     

旅游生态环境容量的经济学探讨

在总结旅游环境容量研究进展的基础上，提出了研究旅游环境容量意义及其概念体系，并就影响旅游环境容量的关键性因子－旅游生态环境容量进行了分析，运用经济学的理论和方法，提出了引起旅游生态环境容量的深层原因是外部不经济性，最后就为了实现资源环境的可持续发展，应该从法律、行政，经济、社会等角度对社会各利益加以协调，构建了有效的制度平台和相应的措施，使外部成本内部化，并提出了解决这些问题的具体对策和建议。     

THE EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL FORCING,DISSIPATION AND NONLINEARITY ON THE SOLUTIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS*

Based on the primitive equations of the atmosphere,we study the effects of external forcing.dissipation and nonlinearity on the solutions of stationary motion and non-stationary motion.The results show that the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the forced dissipative nonlinear system is essentially different from that of the adiabatic non-dissipative system,the adiabatic dissipative system,the diabatic non-dissipative system and the diabatic dissipative linear system,and that the joint action of external forcing,dissipation and nonlinearity is the source of multiple equilibria.From this we can conclude that the important actions of diabatic heating and dissipation must be considered in the models of the long-term weather and the climate.     

台风区和外围暴雨区的旋转风、散度风动能收支

用完全的散度风(v_D)和旋转风(v_R)动能收支方程对8116台风和8407台风以及8116台风与其外围暴雨区的关系作了讨论。结果表明:台风区的有效位能通过散度风动能(K_D)转换为旋转风动能(K_R).台风向区域外部输出动能,在暴雨区上空通过涡度、散度场相互作用的转换机制由K_R向K_D转换,散度风加大触发对流发展产生暴雨,这可能是台风与其外围暴雨联系的一种能量过程。     

Estimating Climate-Change Impacts on Colorado Plateau Snowpack Using Downscaling Methods

This study develops observed climate-based downscaling transfer functions that are used with general circulation model (GCM) output to assess potential global-change impacts on Upper Colorado Plateau, USA, water resources. Daily automated snow water equivalent stations are used with 700 mb atmospheric circulation to determine empirical transfer functions. Downscaling methodologies using multiple regression and neural networks are evaluated, with the neural network results explaining approximately 70%of the daily snowfall variance. The neural network-based transfer functions are used with the GENESIS GCM to simulate snowfall characteristics in both a 1xCO₂ and a 2xCO₂ climate. While the total precipitation simulated by the 2xCO₂ analysis remains nearly the same as today, less will fall as snow; specifically, snow water equivalence shows significant reduction (except in the Green River Basin) as the snow season is reduced by 58 days on average.     

中国南方风化磷块岩研究

中国南方风化磷块岩中的风化磷矿的自然类型可分为两类七种型式，其中以“原位面型风化磷矿”和“位移溶洞砂砾磷矿”为主。风化磷矿是由其原矿的自身特性与外部适宜条件（水文地质条件为主导）综合作用的产物。根据碳酸盐、磷酸盐矿物分解、淋失程度可划分为弱风化、风化、强风化三个阶段。可用直接法、间接法和数学法３类共１３种方法加以判别     

Ecosystem services assessment and compensation costs for installing seaweed farms

In a global context of promotion and expansion of blue growth initiatives, the development of activities such as aquaculture calls for the assessment of the potential impacts on biodiversity at different levels and associated services. This paper presents an assessment of the potential impact of the installation of seaweed farms on ecosystem services and the induced compensation costs. Biophysical and socioeconomic indicators have been developed for helping decision makers to select the most suitable locations. The approach considers a multi-criteria approach based on Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA). The former is used to obtain biophysical ecosystem services and socioeconomic indicators and the latter to evaluate the costs required to compensate the loss of cultural and provisioning ecosystem services. A case-study in the Normand-Breton (Saint Malo) Gulf, France, illustrates this method through the analysis of hypothetical locations of seaweed farms. Results highlight the differences between alternative locations regarding biophysical constraints (in terms of distance and depth), potential risks of conflicts with existing uses, impacts on habitats and the ecosystem services delivered, and compensation costs. This case-study illustrates the flexibility of this approach which can be further adapted to include other indicators in order to deliver integrated information to coastal planners.