Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

山谷冰川稳定态时积累区面积比率研究

探讨山谷冰川稳定状态时积累区面积比率，即ＡＡＲ值的大小，认为冰川物质平衡高程分布，平面形态及坡面坡度沿程变化形式是影响山谷冰川稳定态ＡＡＲ值的主要因素，并 山谷冰川稳定态ＡＡＲ值与物质平衡高程分布及平面形态之间的定量关系。山谷冰川适合于应用ＡＲ值法来研究古冰川的零平衡线高程。     

基于珠海实证的城市旅游增长极限分析框架

城市旅游是城市的一个开放、高流动的子系统,在一定时期内是相对稳定,有增长极限的。城市旅游增长极限受到供需极限影响,当旅游需求超过供给时,出现过度旅游;而当供给超过需求,就会导致过度旅游化。城市旅游需求增长极限呈现阶梯式,只有当影响城市旅游需求增长的长期因素发生持续重大变化时,城市旅游需求增长才可能突破原有的极限,进入一个新的阶段。城市旅游需求极限规定了城市旅游供给极限,决定了城市在一定时期内适合开发的景区、酒店、餐饮、购物等旅游设施规模。本文基于珠海的实证分析表明,过去十几年,由于旅游供需两方面影响因素缺乏持续重大的变化,城市功能和地位、城市主题和特色等因素相对稳定,加之受到区域其他城市的激烈竞争,珠海中高端旅游需求相对稳定,星级酒店等中高端旅游产品面临增长极限。此时,新增旅游景区和星级酒店并不会带来过夜旅游需求的实质增长,反而可能加剧现阶段旅游供需的失衡,造成过度旅游化。本文也讨论了超越旅游极限的条件以及旅游增长与旅游发展的关系,并进一步建议了旅游统计的改革举措。     

喜马拉雅山脉中段土地覆被的垂直分异特征

喜马拉雅山脉中段的珠穆朗玛峰等地,海拔高差巨大、生境复杂多变、土地覆被类型多样且植被垂直带谱完整,是全球范围内研究土地覆被垂直变化的理想场所。本文基于30 m空间分辨率的土地覆被数据（2010年）和DEM数据,在ArcGIS和Matlab平台的支持下,提出并运用脊线法、样带法和扇区法3种山地南北坡划分方法,研究了喜马拉雅山土地覆被垂直分布与结构差异。结果表明：① 山地土地覆被分布具有明确的垂直地带性结构特征,喜马拉雅中部土地覆被垂直带谱为南六北四式,土地覆被垂直带谱中具有人类活动的特点。② 南北坡之间的土地覆被垂直带谱差异明显,南坡土地覆被类型完整多样,北坡相对简单;对同类型土地覆被而言,南坡较北坡分布高程低、幅度宽。③ 依据各类型分布面积比随海拔变化情况,土地覆被类型在南北坡上的垂直分布可分为4种模式：冰川雪被、稀疏植被和草地为单峰分布型,裸地为南单峰北双峰分布型。④ 3种划分方法中,南坡的土地覆被垂直带结构具有相似性,而北坡的土地覆被垂直带结构存在差异,扇区法较好地反映了土地覆被自然分布格局。     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

Life-cycle cost analysis of design practices for RC framed structures

The objective of this study is to perform life-cycle cost analysis on three design practices namely weak ground storey, short and floating columns and their combinations. Life-cycle cost analysis is recognized as the only suitable tool for assessing the structural performance when the structure is expected to be functional for a long period of time. Life-cycle cost analysis is considered in this study assessing the behaviour of the three design practices against earthquake hazard. Although, a number of checks are performed in order to reduce the influence of these design practices on the seismic behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures, it was found that the total life-cycle cost of partially infilled RC designs is significantly increased compared to that of the fully infilled one. Through the test example examined in the framework of this study general conclusions are obtained regarding the behaviour of the three design practices.     

Geotechnical properties of a chemically stabilized soil from Malaysia with rice husk ash as an additive

Summary The stabilization of Malaysian soil by mixing with rice husk ash, a locally available waste material, to improve its engineering properties is described. Stabilizing agents, i.e. cement and lime, were added to produce the reaction products which are responsible for the enhancement of the engineering properties. Based on the strength development, it seems that lime is the more effective stabilizing agent. However, the cheap waste material can be used as partial replacement for the more expensive cement in the cement-treatment of the soil. A durability study was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this stabilization method.     

Pumpellyite–actinolite facies of the Sanbagawa metamorphism

The pumpellyite–actinolite facies proposed by Hashimoto is defined by the common occurrence of the pumpellyite–actinolite assemblage in basic schists. It can help characterize the paragenesis of basic and intermediate bulk compositions, which are common constituents of various low-grade metamorphic areas. The dataset of mutually consistent thermodynamic properties of minerals gives a positive slope for the boundary between the pumpellyite–actinolite and prehnite–pumpellyite facies in P–T space. In the Sanbagawa belt in Japan, the mineral parageneses of hematite-bearing and -free basic schists, as well as pelitic schists have been well documented. The higher temperature limit of this facies is defined by the disappearance of the pumpellyite+epidote+actinolite+chlorite assemblage in hematite-free basic schists with X_Fe3+ of epidote around 0.20–0.25 and the appearance of epidote+actinolite+chlorite assemblage with X^Ep_Fe3+≤0.20. In hematite-bearing basic schists, there is a continuous change of paragenesis to higher grade, epidote–glaucophane or epidote–blueschist facies. In pelitic schists, the albite+lawsonite+chlorite assemblage does occur but only rarely, and its assemblage cannot be used to determine the regional thermal structure. The lower temperature equivalence of the pumpellyite–actinolite assemblage is not observed in the field. The Mikabu Greenstone complex and the northern margin of the Chichibu complex, which are located to the south of the Sanbagawa belt, are characterized by clinopyroxene+chlorite or lawsonite+actinolite assemblages, which are lower temperature assemblages than the pumpellyite+actinolite assemblage. These three metamorphic complexes belong to the same subduction-metamorphic complex. The pumpellyite–actinolite facies or subfacies can be useful to help reveal the field thermal structure of metamorphic complexes