Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subtidal sea level and current variations in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay

Analyses of sea level and current-meter data using digital filters and a variety of statistical methods show a variety of phenomena related to non-local coastal forcing and local tidal forcing in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, a partially mixed estuary. Low-frequency variations in sea level are dominated by non-local variations in coastal sea level and also show a smaller influence from tidally induced fortnightly sea level variations. Low-frequency currents demonstrate a gravitational circulation which is modified by changes in tidal-current speed over the spring-neap tidal cycle. Transients in gravitational circulation induce internal oscillations with periods of two to four days.     

The role of heterogeneous strain in the development and preservation of a polymetamorphic record in high-P granulites, western Canadian Shield

Mafic rocks in the Chipman domain of the Athabasca granulite terrane, western Canadian Shield, provide the first well‐documented record of two distinct high‐P granulite facies events in the same domain in this region. Textural relations and the results of petrological modelling (NCFMASHT system) of mafic granulites are interpreted in terms of a three‐stage tectonometamorphic history. Stage 1 involved development of the assemblage Grt + Cpx + Qtz ± Pl (M₁) from a primary Opx‐bearing igneous precursor at conditions of 1.3 GPa, 850–900 °C. Field and microstructural observations suggest that M₁ developed synchronously with an early S₁ gneissic fabric. Stage 2 is characterized by heterogeneous deformation (D₂) and synkinematic partial retrogression of the peak assemblage to an amphibole‐bearing assemblage (M₂). Stage 3 involved a third phase of deformation and a return to granulite facies conditions marked by the prograde breakdown of amphibole (Amph₂) to produce matrix garnet (Grt_3a) and the coronitic assemblage Cpx_3b + Opx_3b + Ilm_3b + Pl_3b (M_3b) at 1.0 GPa, 800–900 °C. M₁ and M_3b are correlated with 2.55 and 1.9 Ga metamorphic generations of zircon, respectively, which were dated in a separate study. Heterogeneous strain played a crucial role in both the development and preservation of these rare examples of multiple granulite facies events within single samples. Without this fortuitous set of circumstances, the apparent reaction history could have incorrectly led to an interpretation involving a single‐cycle high‐grade event. The detailed P–T–t–D history constructed for these rocks provides the best evidence to date that much of the east Lake Athabasca region experienced long‐term lower crustal residence from 2.55 to 1.9 Ga, and thus the region represents a rare window into the reactivation and ultimate stabilization processes of cratonic lithosphere.     

Nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics in relation to the hydrological pattern in a confined Mediterranean salt marsh (NE Iberian Peninsula)

The role of the hydrological regime in the nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics has been analysed in five lagoons of La Pletera salt marshes (NE Iberian Peninsula) during a complete hydrological cycle (2002–2003). Two of the lagoons have their origin in the old river mouths while the other three were recently created in the framework of a Life Restoration project. This fact has also allowed us to study the effect of the lagoon age on nutrient and zooplankton composition and dynamics. The salt marsh hydrology is determined by a prolonged period of confinement without water inputs, irregularly interrupted by sudden water inputs due to flooding events (sea storms or intense rainfalls). While the dynamics of oxidized nitrogen compounds in the lagoons depends on the water inputs variability within each hydrological cycle, the internal load of phosphorus, total nitrogen and organic matter is related more to the cumulative mechanisms during the confinement periods. Accumulation processes may be easily related to lagoon age, since old lagoons have higher content of nutrients and organic matter, suggesting that these lagoons progressively accumulate nutrients during the successive confinement events. This is the usual case for most Mediterranean salt marshes without an artificially manipulated water regime. The zooplankton community in La Pletera integrates the effects of both the hydrological regime and the lagoon age since the former determines the temporal pattern of the main zooplankton species and the latter explains differences in composition and structure between old and new lagoons.     

Vertical Sound Velocity Transition in the Coral Reef Core and Its Significance of Indicating Facies

On the basis of the sound velocity measurements of the coral reef core from Nanyong No.1 well of Yongshu Reef in the Nansha Islands,the paper studies the relations between the vertical sound velocity transition features in the coral reef core and the corresponding stratigraphic depositional facies change as well as stratigraphic gap of erosion,analyses the cause of the sound velocity transition,expounds the concrete process of the sea level change resulting in the stratigraphic gap of erosion and facies change in the coral reef and explains the relations between the vertical sound velocity transition in the coral reef core and the corresponding stratigraphic paleoclimate and the sea level change.This study is of important practical value and theoretical significance to the island and reef engineering construction and the acoustic logging for oil exploration in the reef limestone area as well as the paleoceanographic study of the marginal sea in the westerm Pacific Ocean.     

对我国西南地区河谷深厚覆盖层成因机理的新认识

近年来,在我国水能资源开发过程中,发现各河流现代河床以下普遍堆积厚达数十米甚至上百米的松散堆积物。河谷深厚覆盖层的存在,不仅严重制约了工程坝址的选择,影响相关流域水电资源的开发利用,也给坝工设计带来巨大的困难。由于深厚覆盖层埋藏于现代河床之下,其形成年代一般先于一二级阶地,有悖于河流发育演化的常理,其成因一直令人费解。首次将河谷深切和深厚堆积事件与全球气候变化、海平面升降运动、地壳运动等有机地联系起来,并提出冰期、间冰期全球海平面大幅度升降,是导致河流深切成谷并形成深厚堆积的主要原因的新观点。在此基础上,引入层序地层学原理,从理论上较好地解释了全球气候变化导致海平面和河流侵蚀基准面大幅变化,并产生河谷深切和深厚堆积的原因和过程。最后,进一步将沿河大型古滑坡的孕育和发生与河谷深切事件相联系,提出沿河大型古滑坡是在河谷深切期因前缘临空较好而形成的新观点,从而对沿河古滑坡前缘剪出口高程往往低于现代河床数十米的原因给出了较合理的解释。     

Mesozoic transtensional basin history of the Eastern Cordillera, Colombian Andes: Inferences from tectonic models

Backstripping analysis and forward modeling of 162 stratigraphic columns and wells of the Eastern Cordillera (EC), Llanos, and Magdalena Valley shows the Mesozoic Colombian Basin is marked by five lithosphere stretching pulses. Three stretching events are suggested during the Triassic–Jurassic, but additional biostratigraphical data are needed to identify them precisely. The spatial distribution of lithosphere stretching values suggests that small, narrow (<150 km), asymmetric graben basins were located on opposite sides of the paleo-Magdalena–La Salina fault system, which probably was active as a master transtensional or strike-slip fault system. Paleomagnetic data suggesting a significant (at least 10°) northward translation of terranes west of the Bucaramanga fault during the Early Jurassic, and the similarity between the early Mesozoic stratigraphy and tectonic setting of the Payandé terrane with the Late Permian transtensional rift of the Eastern Cordillera of Peru and Bolivia indicate that the areas were adjacent in early Mesozoic times. New geochronological, petrological, stratigraphic, and structural research is necessary to test this hypothesis, including additional paleomagnetic investigations to determine the paleolatitudinal position of the Central Cordillera and adjacent tectonic terranes during the Triassic–Jurassic. Two stretching events are suggested for the Cretaceous: Berriasian–Hauterivian (144–127 Ma) and Aptian–Albian (121–102 Ma). During the Early Cretaceous, marine facies accumulated on an extensional basin system. Shallow-marine sedimentation ended at the end of the Cretaceous due to the accretion of oceanic terranes of the Western Cordillera. In Berriasian–Hauterivian subsidence curves, isopach maps and paleomagnetic data imply a (>180 km) wide, asymmetrical, transtensional half-rift basin existed, divided by the Santander Floresta horst or high. The location of small mafic intrusions coincides with areas of thin crust (crustal stretching factors >1.4) and maximum stretching of the subcrustal lithosphere. During the Aptian–early Albian, the basin extended toward the south in the Upper Magdalena Valley. Differences between crustal and subcrustal stretching values suggest some lowermost crustal decoupling between the crust and subcrustal lithosphere or that increased thermal thinning affected the mantle lithosphere. Late Cretaceous subsidence was mainly driven by lithospheric cooling, water loading, and horizontal compressional stresses generated by collision of oceanic terranes in western Colombia. Triassic transtensional basins were narrow and increased in width during the Triassic and Jurassic. Cretaceous transtensional basins were wider than Triassic–Jurassic basins. During the Mesozoic, the strike-slip component gradually decreased at the expense of the increase of the extensional component, as suggested by paleomagnetic data and lithosphere stretching values. During the Berriasian–Hauterivian, the eastern side of the extensional basin may have developed by reactivation of an older Paleozoic rift system associated with the Guaicáramo fault system. The western side probably developed through reactivation of an earlier normal fault system developed during Triassic–Jurassic transtension. Alternatively, the eastern and western margins of the graben may have developed along older strike-slip faults, which were the boundaries of the accretion of terranes west of the Guaicáramo fault during the Late Triassic and Jurassic. The increasing width of the graben system likely was the result of progressive tensional reactivation of preexisting upper crustal weakness zones. Lateral changes in Mesozoic sediment thickness suggest the reverse or thrust faults that now define the eastern and western borders of the EC were originally normal faults with a strike-slip component that inverted during the Cenozoic Andean orogeny. Thus, the Guaicáramo, La Salina, Bitúima, Magdalena, and Boyacá originally were transtensional faults. Their oblique orientation relative to the Mesozoic magmatic arc of the Central Cordillera may be the result of oblique slip extension during the Cretaceous or inherited from the pre-Mesozoic structural grains. However, not all Mesozoic transtensional faults were inverted.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Preservation/exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure subduction complexes

Ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terranes reflect subduction of continental crust to depths of 90–140 km in Phanerozoic contractional orogens. Rocks are intensely overprinted by lower pressure mineral assemblages; traces of relict UHP phases are preserved only under kinetically inhibiting circumstances. Most UHP complexes present in the upper crust are thin, imbricate sheets consisting chiefly of felsic units ± serpentinites; dense mafic and peridotitic rocks make up less than  10% of each exhumed subduction complex. Roundtrip prograde–retrograde P–T paths are completed in 10–20 Myr, and rates of ascent to mid-crustal levels approximate descent velocities. Late-stage domical uplifts typify many UHP complexes.

Sialic crust may be deeply subducted, reflecting profound underflow of an oceanic plate prior to collisional suturing. Exhumation involves decompression through the P–T stability fields of lower pressure metamorphic facies. Scattered UHP relics are retained in strong, refractory, watertight host minerals (e.g., zircon, pyroxene, garnet) typified by low rates of intracrystalline diffusion. Isolation of such inclusions from the recrystallizing rock matrix impedes back reaction. Thin-aspect ratio, ductile-deformed nappes are formed in the subduction zone; heat is conducted away from UHP complexes as they rise along the subduction channel. The low aggregate density of continental crust is much less than that of the mantle it displaces during underflow; its rapid ascent to mid-crustal levels is driven by buoyancy. Return to shallow levels does not require removal of the overlying mantle wedge. Late-stage underplating, structural contraction, tectonic aneurysms and/or plate shallowing convey mid-crustal UHP décollements surfaceward in domical uplifts where they are exposed by erosion. Unless these situations are mutually satisfied, UHP complexes are completely transformed to low-pressure assemblages, obliterating all evidence of profound subduction.