泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价

风险一词虽然已经广泛被科学家和经济学家所使用 ,但涉及到自然灾害的风险研究则还是 2 0世纪 80年代中后期的事。国内有关泥石流风险的探讨 ,更是 2 0世纪 90年代才初见端倪。国际上 ,泥石流风险评价至今仍然是前沿探索性领域和新兴的研究课题。基于联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达 ,本文给出了泥石流风险度 =危险度易损度这一数学命题的近似解。讨论了风险分级和不同风险等级的分布概率以及风险指南。以云南东川因民矿区黑山沟泥石流为例 ,对单沟泥石流风险度评价模型进行了示范应用     

珠江口二类水体水色三要素的优化反演

根据2003年1月份珠江口实测资料获得了适合该海域的相关参数,建立了适用于该海域的二类水体水色三要素优化反演模型,同步优化反演得到了与2003年1月25～26日实测站点相对应的2003年1月29日的SeaWiFs图像像元点的水色三要素,反演与实测水色三要素的平均相对误差分别为：叶绿素14．9％,悬浮泥沙12．1％,黄色物质13．6％。研究结果说明本研究建立的优化反演模型比较适用于珠江口二类水体水色三要素的反演,且具有较高的反演精度。     

137Cs示踪技术在土壤侵蚀估算中的应用研究进展

137Cs示踪技术目前已被广泛用于长期的土壤侵蚀(水蚀)估算。该技术要解决的两个关键问题是土壤137Cs基准值的确定,以及土壤的137Cs损失量与土壤侵蚀量之间的定量模型的建立。对现有的主要的定量模型进行了简述,并提出了各自的局限性。这些模型可分为经验模型和理论模型两大类,其中以理论模型中的质量平衡模型较为成熟,综合考虑了较多的侵蚀因子,如137Cs年沉降分量、土壤颗粒粒径分布差异、地表富集作用、耕作土壤在耕作活动前新沉降137Cs的侵蚀损失等。对现有模型的改进也进行了探讨,并提出了今后的一些研究重点。     

工程地质评价定量表格化的一种实现方法

本文对传统的工程地质评价方法作了扩展,称之为工程地质评价的定量表格化。本文详细给出了定量表格化的一种实现方法。两个应用实例表明,该方法既定量又简便,具有良好的适用性和推广前景。     

逆掩断层垂向封闭性定量模拟实验及评价方法

在正确分析逆掩断层形成的地质条件和封闭机理的基础上,本文认为与逆掩断层相伴生的塑性岩石的变形特征、断面压力和断裂带中泥质含量是影响断层垂向封闭性的主要因素。进行了断裂带填充物中泥质含量与断层封闭性定量关系物理模拟实验,并分析了岩石变形特征对断层封闭性的影响,建立了断层封闭性评价标准,提出了利用断裂带填充物质的性质、断面压力和膏泥岩变形特征评价断层封闭性方法。选择了库车坳陷克拉 3号构造进行了实例分析,结果表明该方法具有可靠性     

High-precision analysis of carbon isotopic composition for individual CO2 inclusions via Raman spectroscopy to reveal the multiple-stages evolution of CO2- bearing fluids and melts

The carbon isotopic composition of CO₂ inclusions trapped in minerals reflects the origin and evolution of CO₂-bearing fluids and melts, and records the multiple-stages carbon geodynamic cycle, as CO₂ took part in various geological processes widely. However, the practical method for determination isotope composition of individual CO₂ inclusion is still lacking. Developing a microanalytical technique with spatial resolution in micrometers to precisely determinate the δ¹³C value of individual CO₂ inclusion, will make it possible to analyze a tiny portion of a zoning mineral crystal, distinguish the differences in micro-scale, and possible to find many useful information that could not be obtained with the bulk extraction and analysis techniques. In this study, we systematically collected Raman spectra of CO₂ standards with different δ¹³C values (?34.9 ‰ to 3.58 ‰) at 32.0 °C and from ～7.0 MPa to 120.0 MPa, and developed a new procedure to precisely determinate the δ¹³C value of individual CO₂ inclusion. We investigated the relationship among the Raman peak intensity ratio, δ¹³C value, and CO₂ density, and established a calibration model with high accuracy (0.5 ‰?1.5 ‰), sufficient for geological application to distinguish different source of CO₂ with varying δ¹³CO₂. As a demonstration, we measured the δ¹³C values and the density of CO₂ inclusions in the growth zones of alkali basalt-hosted corundum megacrysts from Changle, Shandong Province. We found the significant differences of density and δ¹³C between the CO₂ inclusions in the core of corundum and those inclusions in the outer growth zones, the δ¹³C value decreases from core to rim with decreasing density: δ¹³C values are from ?7.5 ‰ to ?9.2 ‰ for the inclusions in the core, indicating the corundum core was crystallized from mantle-derived magmas; from ?13.5 ‰ to ?18.5 ‰ for CO₂ inclusions in zone 1 and from ?16.5 ‰ to –22.0 ‰ for inclusions in zone 2, indicating the outer zones of corundum grew in a low δ¹³C value environment, resulted from an infilling of low δ¹³C value fluid and/or degassing of the ascending basaltic magma.     

裂缝性潜山油藏储集体岩性定量识别———以埕北30 太古界潜山储集体为例

由于油井取芯费用高昂加之油层保护的需要,不可能大量取芯,因此利用少量的岩芯资料,结合其它一些手段来预测未取芯井段的岩性,就成为有效识别和预测潜山储层分布的重要途径之一。该文针对埕北30 太古界潜山储集体,运用BP神经网络技术对测井资料进行了潜山储集体岩性的定量识别,经与岩芯观察、薄片分析、成像测井结果对比检验, 符合率达到了90%,从而为开展潜山油藏裂缝预测研究奠定了基础。      

雷州半岛灯楼角珊瑚礁海区夏季的浮游动物

2004年8月在雷州半岛灯楼角珊瑚礁海区分别使用浅水Ⅰ型和浅水Ⅱ型浮游生物网进行了浮游动物调查,共鉴定浮游动物72种和浮游幼虫19个类群(或类型),其中桡足类的种数最多达45种。结果表明,浮游动物种数分布由近岸往远岸递增,约3/4的种类属于终身浮游生物,1/4属于阶段性浮游生物。中小型的浮游动物种类多,数量大。两种网具采集的浮游动物总种数、总密度、多样性指数、均匀度和中小型优势种的密度差异相当显著,而大型优势种的密度差异不明显。用浅水Ⅱ型网采集的浮游动物总密度平均值为5270ind/m3,是浅水Ⅰ型网的110倍。桡足类占浮游动物总密度的72.45%,其次幼虫占23.41%。浮游动物密度呈斑块状分布,最高达16257ind/m3,底质为珊瑚礁的测站的浮游动物数量一般较多。优势种主要是中小型种类和底栖动物的幼虫,如强额孔雀哲水蚤、蔓足类无节幼虫、细长腹剑水蚤、驼背隆哲水蚤、无节幼虫、双壳类面盘幼虫、桡足幼体、简长腹剑水蚤等。     

CO2 saturation estimates at Sleipner (North Sea) from seismic tomography and rock physics inversion

CO₂ saturations are estimated at Sleipner using a two-step imaging workflow. The workflow combines seismic tomography (full-waveform inversion) and rock physics inversion and is applied to a two-dimensional seismic line located near the injection point at Sleipner. We use baseline data (1994 vintage, before CO₂ injection) and monitor data that was acquired after 12 years of CO₂ injection (2008 vintage). P-wave velocity models are generated using the Full waveform inversion technology and then, we invert selected rock physics parameters using an rock physics inversion methodology. Full waveform inversion provides high-resolution P-wave velocity models both for baseline and monitor data. The physical relations between rock physics properties and acoustic wave velocities in the Utsira unconsolidated sandstone (reservoir formation) are defined using a dynamic rock physics model based on well-known Biot–Gassmann theories. For data prior to injection, rock frame properties (porosity, bulk and shear dry moduli) are estimated using rock physics inversion that allows deriving physically consistent properties with related uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty related to limited input data (only P-wave velocity) is not an issue because the mean values of parameters are correct. These rock frame properties are then used as a priori constraint in the monitor case. For monitor data, the Full waveform inversion results show nicely resolved thin layers of CO₂–brine saturated sandstones under intra-reservoir shale layers. The CO₂ saturation estimation is carried out by plugging an effective fluid phase in the rock physics model. Calculating the effective fluid bulk modulus of the brine–CO₂ mixture (using Brie equation in our study) is shown to be the key factor to link P-wave velocity to CO₂ saturation. The inversion tests are done with several values of Brie/patchiness exponent and show that the CO₂ saturation estimates are varying between 0.30 and 0.90 depending on the rock physics model and the location in the reservoir. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation estimation is usually lower than 0.20. When the patchiness exponent is considered as unknown, the inversion is less constrained and we end up with values of exponent varying between 5 and 20 and up to 33 in specific reservoir areas. These estimations tend to show that the CO₂–brine mixing is between uniform and patchy mixing and variable throughout the reservoir.     

应用模式识别定量划分潜在震源区

本文以陕西关中及部分邻区为例,考虑地质构造、地震活动及地球物地场等因素,采用不同的模式识别方法和多种计算方案,以定量判定潜在震源区。其结果表明,模式识别方法有利于地质、地震活动及地球物理场等多种因素综合应用,并能选择和显示判定潜有震源区的主要特征。不同模式识别方法的比较和多种试验方案的综合,则可提高潜在震源区判定的可靠性和稳定性。