东营市森林火险天气等级预报系统

利用9210传输的气象资料，选用国家气象中心T106和HLAFS数值预报产品中的要素作为火险天气因子，根据森林火险原因，建立了东营市森林火险天气等级预报系统。     

Least-squares self-coherency analysis of superconducting gravimeter records in search for the Slichter triplet

We develop a new approach for the spectral analysis of the superconducting gravimeter data to search for the spheroidal oscillation ₁S₁ of the Earth solid inner core. The new method, which we call least-squares (LS) self-coherency analysis, is based on the product of the least-squares spectra of segments of the time series under consideration. The statistical foundation of this method is presented in the new least-squares product spectrum theorem that establishes rigorously confidence levels for detecting significant peaks. We apply this approach along with a number of other innovative ideas to a 6-year long gravity series collected at the Canadian Superconducting Gravimeter Installation (CSGI) in Cantley, Canada, by splitting it into 72 statistically independent monthly records. Each monthly record is analysed spectrally and all monthly LS spectra are multiplied to construct the self-coherency spectrum of the 6-year gravity series. The self-coherency spectrum is then used to detect significant peaks in the band 3-7 h at various significant levels with the aim to identify a triplet of periods associated with the rotational/ellipsoidal splitting of ₁S₁ (Slichter triplet). From all the Slichter periods predicted by various researchers so far, Smylie's triplet appears to be the most supported one, albeit very weakly, both, before and after the atmospheric pressure effect is removed from the series. Using the viscous splitting law [Smylie, D.E., 1992. The inner core translational triplet and the density near Earth's center. Science 255, 1678-1682] as guide, we can also see one interesting and statistically significant triplet with periods A = {4.261 h, 4.516 h, 4.872 h}, which changes slightly to A′ = {4.269 h, 4.516 h, 4.889 h} after the atmospheric pressure correction is applied to the gravity series.     

中规模卫星云图接收系统故障排除及产品处理

针对中规模卫星云图接收系统在接收过程中常见的几种错误，本文分析了问题的发生原因，并详细演示了应对办法。最后讨论了web格式产品的制作和分发。     

Investigation of fractal distribution law for the trace number of random and grouped fractures in a geological mass

A fractal study method of the number of geological mass fractures is introduced in detail in this paper. Three main aspects of the problem were studied: (1) The random distribution of fractures in a geological mass was in good agreement with the fractal law. The size scale of the studied geological mass ranged from 2400 m to 1 mm for the length of each side, and the geological mass samples were taken from 13 coal areas in China. (2) The geological mass fractures were evidently directional and anisotropic, having originated from tectonic movement. Observation and statistics for the data from the Xuangang, Fenxi and Dongshan coal areas in Shanxi, China, demonstrated that the fracture distribution of each group, classified by the strike of the strata, still follow the fractal law, even though the fractal dimension varies to a certain extent with different strikes. (3) The sedimentary strata containing the coal seams, as a geological mass, underwent almost similar tectonic movements in their geological history. The mechanical experiments on geological mass samples from Fenxi and Jiexiu in Shanxi demonstrated that the fractal dimension of the number of fractures in the same strata is in good power function with the product of strength and elastic modulus. The larger the product of the strength of the elastic modulus is, the larger is the fractal dimension, and vice versa.     

全球实施碳税政策对碳减排及世界经济的影响评估

该研究模拟了全球各区域2008-2050年的经济发展和碳排放状况,并将该模拟结果设定为基准情景。在基准情景中全球GDP随时间增长,而全球的碳排放同样表现出增长趋势。为了模拟碳税政策的减排效应及其对经济的影响,本文构建了其他3种碳税政策情景。情景1,将碳税收入作为一般性财政收入,此时全球升温减缓,世界碳排放下降显著,但中国、印度、俄罗斯、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等发展中国家经济发展严重受创,世界经济不均衡加剧。情景2,将各区域的碳税收入汇总之后按照比例统一分配,该情景下,世界碳减排规模较情景1略有下降,但世界各区域的经济较基准情景得到更好的发展。情景3,碳税税率随时间阶段性增长,此时,碳税政策对全球升温的控制更显著;世界各区域,尤其是发展中国家（地区）,经济增长更迅速。另外,碳税收入用来提升区域技术进步,在一定程度上促进了产业的优化升级。碳税政策与技术进步的协同减排政策,考虑了区域经济发展的不均衡性,兼顾了气候治理的公平性,是一种有效、可行的全球气候治理政策。     

Assessment of the effectiveness of combined adsorption and photocatalysis for removal of the herbicide isoproturon

The aim of this research was to decompose isoproturon and adsorb its photoproducts by developing a carbon material from a juice industry waste. Carbon-TiO₂ hybrid materials were obtained by impregnating carbonized guava seeds with TiO₂ gels prepared from TiOSO₄⋅xH₂O and NH₄OH using glycerol as a binder and thermally treating the materials at 500 °C. Raman studies confirmed the anatase phase of TiO₂. SEM images showed isolated TiO₂ agglomerates firmly attached to the carbon surface. The adsorption behavior of isoproturon on guava carbon was studied and yielded S-type adsorption isotherms. The photocatalytic activities of the prepared hybrid materials were monitored to study the kinetics and elimination process both of the herbicide and its photoproducts. The reaction was monitored by UV–Vis spectrophotometry, LC-DAD and LC-MS, enabling identification of some intermediate species. Among the photoproducts produced by carbon-TiO₂ hybrid materials, amino-isopropylphenol was detected.     

A bivariate pareto model for drought

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.     

与T63数值预报产品相结合的江苏西南大风的预报方法

国家气象中心发送的T63数值预告产品在本台于95年6月份投入业务运行,为尽好、尽快地最大限度地将T63数值产品投入业务使用,以发挥其作用,从而具体体现T63的价值所在、在这方面,我们作了一些探讨与尝试。我们把《江苏大面积西南大风预报工具》与T63数值预告产品进行结合与释用,取得了良好的效果。     

宜春地区三类典型天气的风廓线雷达产品特征分析

选取江西省宜春市晴空、弱降水、强降水三类天气过程个例,结合天气形势、雷达回波、气象要素等资料,对比分析了风廓线雷达产品特征。结果表明：（1）在晴空天气背景下,风廓线雷达探测高度低,水平风速小,垂直风速正负值交替出现,大气折射率结构常数（Cn2）值最小。（2）在稳定性弱降水天气背景下,大气呈稳定状态,风廓线雷达探测高度随降水的产生而逐渐抬升,高低层有明显的风速切变,850 hPa赣南至赣东北有西南急流穿过,赣北有切变线存在,利于降水产生,垂直风速因降水影响出现朝向雷达正速度,Cn2值比晴空时大。（3）在具有产生强对流天气背景下,大气中对流强烈,风廓线雷达的水平风速增大,西南急流深厚且不断下沉,850-700 hPa有强烈的垂直切变,动力条件和水汽条件利于强降水产生,垂直风速表现为更大的朝向雷达正速度,Cn2值比弱降水时的大。