2000-2014年中国重特大煤矿事故时空分布分形特征

本文汇总整理了2000-2014年中国发生的472起重特大煤矿事故,获得其空间分布状况;基于分形理论,利用网格法统计不同网格尺度下覆盖重特大煤矿事故的非空网格中的事故数量,计算煤矿事故的全国、三大自然地理区以及干湿分区的分维值,分析其空间分布分形特征;利用R/S方法研究15年来重特大煤矿事故发生的时间分形特征。研究表明,从全国范围来看,重特大煤矿事故具有较好的空间分形特性,但不同区域的重特大煤矿事故的分形特性却具有很大差别。15年来发生重特大事故数量及事故死亡人数逐年下降,由R/S分析得到的Hurst指数表明事故时间序列的分形特征客观存在,并且年发生事故数量及事故死亡人数量减少趋势。     

Formation Pressure Evaluation Method for Single Well

The paper deals with the methods of formation pressure evaluation for a single well by using the very common ac-cepted parameters, such as drilling exponent , and flowline temperature , etc. which is part of compiling the end well report.     

Nonlinear Coupled Motions for a Given Two-Point Tension Mooring System

—The nonlinear behaviors of plane coupled motions for a given two-point tension mooring sys-tem,are discussed in the present paper.For a cylinder moored by two taut lines under the action ofgravity,buoyance and forces due to wave-current and mooring lines,a mathematical model of motionswith three degrees of freedom is established.The steady solution and stability are analyzed.By integratingthe equations of motions,history,phase map and Poincare map are obtained.The Liapunov exponentsare also computed.The numerical results show that:the horizontal movement will increase,and stabilitywill also increase as the steady force increases.The amplitude of responses will decrease as time-dependentforces decrease.Because of the geometric nonlinearity,there exist many windows bifurcating to pseudo-pe-riodic or multi-periodic solution.The bifurcating patterns may be different.The behaviors are very com-plex.Under wave excitation alone,the motions are nonsymmetrical but still symmetrical statistically.     

青岛陆上观测点的气溶胶光学厚度特征分析及与渤海气溶胶光学厚度的比较

阐述了气溶胶散射对太阳光衰减的影响和对观测数据的统计分析.作者使用手持式五波段太阳光度计和臭氧监测仪对青岛崂山区陆域和渤海海域的大气衰减进行了较长时间的观测.分析表明,对可见光和近红外波段电磁渡的大气衰减贡献最大的是气溶胶散射,气溶胶散射的光学厚度随波长的增大而减小,但是它在大气总光学厚度中占的比例随波长的增大而增加.在青岛崂山区冬季,对应于440nm波长的气溶胶散射光学厚度主要分布在0.4～0.6和1.5～1.6区间,浑浊度系数α主要分布在0.15～0.45区间,埃斯特朗指数β主要分布在1.0～1.4区间.从时间上看,α和β在1d内的变化不大,但逐日变化非常显著.与晴天相比,青岛崂山区冬季雾天的气溶胶散射光学厚度增加了大约一倍,较大的浑浊度系数和较小的埃斯特朗指数表明,雾天的大气具有气溶胶散射的光学厚度大、粒子浓度大和粒径尺度大的特点.通过与海上观测数据的比较可见,青岛崂山区陆地冬季在雾天时的气溶胶分布与渤海夏季时相似,青岛崂山区陆地冬季在晴天无云时的气溶胶分布与渤海秋季时相似.     

中国城市标度律及标度因子时空特征

城市标度律刻画了城市系统中城市要素与人口数量之间的规模缩放关系,但标度律在中国城市系统中的适用性和意义尚不明确。本文采用中国275个地级及以上城市数据,探究不同城市要素与人口规模的标度关系,并从时空维度探究标度因子的时空演化规律。结果表明：作为典型的快速城市化发展中国家,中国城市发展符合标度律,且呈现出与发达国家不同的特征：中国城市人口集聚带来的经济产出集聚效应显著,而土地利用、基础设施与公共服务的规模经济效应还有待增强。部分基础设施、生活设施要素与人口规模呈超线性或线性关系,与预期的次线性相悖,基础教育、医疗等要素的标度因子则远低于发达国家的次线性阈值,反映了公共资源向大城市聚集、不同规模城市发展不平衡等快速城镇化进程中城市系统的独特性。标度因子的区域分异反映城市发展协调程度差异,其中东北地区不同规模城市差异最为显著。主要城市要素标度因子随时间的变化表明,中国大城市的经济产出集聚效应在2009年最为显著,而后略有下降;中国大城市土地扩张总体上自2000年以来持续加速,2008年以后仍维持在较高水平,管控城市特别是大城市的外延式扩张、提高土地利用效率具有紧迫性。中国城市标度律研究有助于认知快速城市化地区城市系统特征和演化规律,为实现区域协调发展与落实新型城镇化发展战略提供支持。     

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

山东大尹格庄金矿蚀变岩中矿体分布稳定性的动力学控制参量探讨

元素品位分布的相依性指标--赫斯特指数（Hurst指数）是矿体分布稳定性的动力学控制参量,重标极差（R/S）分析是相依性分析的有效方法.利用R/S分析对胶东大尹格庄金矿黄铁绢英岩内不同勘探线金元素品位系列的Hurst指数计算发现,Hurst指数主要介于0.59至0.89之间,均值为0.75,标准差为0.09,均大于随机行走经验Hurst指数的均值与标准差;计算结果说明元素品位分布存在正相关性,但由于受多种因素影响,其空间分布的相依性具有一定波动.元素品位分布的正相依性显示在特定的地质背景内,矿体连续分布或者间断出现,发育相对稳定,其与大尹格庄金矿的地质事实相吻合.     

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.     

修正的内梅罗指数法及其在城市地下饮用水源地水质评价中的应用

为了克服内梅罗指数法和平均指数法存在的不足,对内梅罗指数法进行了修正。将公式中的算术平均修改为加权平均,各评价指标的权重是根据污染因子的危害性与该污染因子的排放标准呈反比例关系来确定的。并将修正后的公式用于西安市地下饮用水源地的水质评价中。结果表明,改进后的方法更能客观地评价水质状况,既突出了最大污染因子,又增强了危害性较强因子的作用,是合理的。