RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

FEASIBLE STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION SYSTEM FOR THE SPACE MONITORING OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES IN TERRESTRIAL LAND

With the rapid development of space technology, earth observation technology and sky observatory technolo-gy, they have played a more and more important part in monitoring and predicting of earthquakes and volcanoes in the terres-trial land. In recent years, the related agencies have done the experiments and researches on monitoring and predicting ofearthquakes and volcanoes in the forewarning period by means of many approaches, such as satellite thermal infrared re-mote sensing (TIRS), Global Positioning System (GPS), differential interferometric synthesis aperture radar (D-INSAR),astronomical time-latitude residual anomaly, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), etc. A quite large number of re-search foundation has been built in the fundamental theories and application methods. The experiments and researcheshave shown that these technology is efficient methods for high frequency crust movement. If the existed separate scientificforces and results are possibly assembled together to form a more complete integration monitoring system with the combina-tion of space, sky observation, ground, deep geology and macro anomaly, it will come into a new stage of monitoring andpredicting of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

地壳对海洋潮汐的响应

应用三维动态有限元方法研究了中国北部地区的地壳对邻近的渤海与黄海海平面变化的响应。虽然此应力场过于微弱不足以引发地震，但发现应力集中的位置及应力场变化较大的位置恰好与某些现代地震的震中一致。这一结果表明研究地壳对广泛分布的载荷的响应对研究区域地震构造是有帮助的。     

昆仑山8.1级地震前中国大陆的构造应变背景

利用“网络工程”1998～2001年累积的1181个测站的GPS重复观测资料，采用双三次样条函数模型建立中国大陆水平运动模型速度场，用大地坐标在椭球面上计算各类应变场，详细分析了2001年昆仑山8．1级地震前中国大陆水平构造应变场空间分布特征。各类构造应变场的最高值都出现在喜马拉雅构造带与昆仑山地块内(地震断裂带南侧)，鲜水河—安宁河断裂带次之。分析表明，昆仑山8．1级地震正好发生在张性面膨胀应变率的高值区，第一、第二和最大剪应变率高值区边缘的突变区和最大、最小主应变率的高值区。     

Approach to Mountain Hazards in Tibet, China

Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km^2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.     

地震前后垂直形变场动态演化的量化指标

提出一种表达垂直形变场动态演化过程的量化指标——区域应变率、应变集中度。在此基础上，对南北地震带各水准监测区近30年的垂直形变资料进行了实际计算．并结合具体震例进行了对比研究。结果表明：量化指标在一定程度上能够反映地震前后形变场的动态演化过程和地壳运动状态，对地震的中长期预报有一定的积极意义。     

LAST GLACIATION AND MAXIMUM GLACIATION IN THE QINGHAI-XIZANG (TIBET) PLATEAU: A CONTROVERSY TO M. KUHLE,S ICE SHEET HYPOTHESIS

Since the late 1950's, many Chinese scientists have explored the remains of the Quaternary glaciation in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and its surrounding mountains. In the main, 3-4 glaciations have been recognized. The largest one occurred in the Late Middle Pleistocene with piedmont glaciers, ice caps and trellis valley glaciers in many high peak regions. But here is no evidence of a unified ice sheet covering the whole plateau as described by M. Kuhle. Due to the further uplifting of the Himalayas and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau the climate became progressively drier, diminishing the extension of glaciers during the Late Pleistocene. The elevation of the snow line during the Last Glaciation was about 4,000 m on the south, east and northeast edges of the plateau and ascended to 5500 m on the hinder northwest of the plateau. The thermal effect of the big plateau massif, the sharp increase of aridity from the southeast rim to the northwest inland area and the abrupt decrease of precipitation during the     

利用历史有感地震目录（M≥3（1／2））研究华北地区地震活动性特征

对新编的华北地区历史有感地震目录（３（１／２）≤Ｍ＜４（１／２））的精度和可信度进行了讨论。认为该地震目录从１４８４年后的记载率较高，它的发震时间、震中位置和震级的精度基本可以满足研究历史地震活动性的需要。它与中国地震目录（Ｍ≥４（３／４））比较，补充了相当数量的３（１／２）≤Ｍ≤４（１／２）的地震。利用历史有感地震目录分析了华北北部部分６级以上的历史地震，结果表明，这些地震在强震发生前具有明显的空区、条带、地震活动性增强、平静等前兆特征，同时，也显示了某些强＊发生前的前震活动和主震之后起伏的强余震活动