灾区恢复重建后效评估研究进展

随着全球变化加剧,世界各地自然灾害的频发,国际社会为应对自然灾害进行了不懈努 力,历届世界减灾大会不断强调对应急管理全流程的研究,恢复重建作为应急管理的重要环节而 得到广泛重视。积极开展灾区恢复重建后效评估有利于保障灾区恢复重建实施与区域可持续发 展。灾区恢复重建后效评估研究时间较短,首先比较分析了国内外恢复重建的内涵,明确了恢复 重建后效评估的基本概念,并梳理了灾区恢复重建后效评估的在中国的发展演变。由于灾区恢复 重建内容复杂多样,本文结合灾区恢复重建后效评估的发展历程、研究范围与关注时段,分别从项 目、要素与可持续性三个关键视角对后效评估的理论方法等展开评述,结果表明：（1）项目后效评 估在灾区恢复重建后效评估中起步较早,现有评估多集中于居民住房、基础设施、公共设施等工程 质量的评估,但缺乏对项目设计过程中社会居民参与度、公众满意度以及社会经济效益等的评 估。（2）要素后效评估在灾区恢复重建后效评估中涉及范围最广,具体包括社会、经济与环境等要 素,这些要素的评估受政策绩效影响较大,后期需要构建综合的评估体系以开展科学评估。（3）可 持续性后效评估以联合国可持续发展目标与地方国民经济与社会发展计划为基础构建评估框架, 有利于促进灾区的可持续发展。通过综合分析《仙台减轻灾害风险框架》中“重建的更好”(BBB)理 念,联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）以及《巴黎协定》适应全球变化等诉求,结合当前灾区恢复重建 后效评估现状进行展望,以期为灾区恢复重建与可持续发展提供一个更为系统、综合的技术参考。     

基于2030年可持续发展目标的吉林省城镇化可持续发展评价

结合联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）构建城镇化可持续发展评价指标体系,从省内、外两个角度研究吉林省城镇化可持续发展状况。结果表明：吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平波动上升,发展趋势良好,大致可分为3个阶段;研究期内各子系统可持续发展水平均呈上升趋势,其中社会子系统上升幅度最大,经济子系统上升幅度最小。城镇化可持续发展水平空间格局呈“核心-边缘”结构,即长春市水平高、其它地区水平低;经济、社会、资源和环境子系统可持续发展水平总体上表现为“中东部高,西部低”。研究期内吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平低于黑龙江省,2015年后高于辽宁省;相较辽黑两省,吉林省社会子系统可持续发展水平较低。     

城市和城市群可持续发展指数研究进展

21世纪是城市的世纪,城市的高质量发展对区域和全球可持续发展至关重要。中国城市化发展迅速,城市化率从1978年的17.9%增加到2019年的60.6%,2030年将达到70%,大部分人口居住在城市。城市是中国经济发展的引擎,以全国近7%的土地面积生产了70%的国内生产总值(GDP),而城市群更是集聚了全国大部分城镇人口和GDP。因此,城市和城市群的健康与可持续性将决定中国未来发展的质量与进程。识别城市和城市群发展的程度、存在的问题以及国内外差距,亟需进行城市可持续发展的评价。本研究系统综述了城市可持续发展评价的思想与指标体系的发展历程,重点基于联合国可持续发展目标(SDG)框架考察了开展城市可持续发展评价的方法,提出了构建城市和城市群可持续发展指数的途径,并从平台构建、大数据基础、跟踪发布等方面提出了推进城市可持续发展指数评价建立城市发展“仪表盘”的思路。基于联合国SDG框架的城市和城市群可持续发展指数可为目标城市对标其他城市、开展不同区域城市的对比、找准发展目标与识别存在问题等方面提供重要支撑。     

A digital earth platform for sustainability

ABSTRACT

Based on the experience of the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE), this paper describes some challenges foreseen in order to develop a Digital Earth platform that can support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The use of ready-to-use derived geospatial information is essential. Future Earth’s methodology of ‘co-design’ aims to bring together natural, social scientists and decision makers to plan and carry out research for sustainability. Sustainability implies transdisciplinary research, but in order for scientists of different disciplines to work together, they will need to be able to share, access and use common data. This is by far not simple! While the good will to share data might exist, the associated technological, ethical and privacy issues are difficult to solve. An adequate e-infrastructure will be required. ISDE could consider to use the SDGs is the basis to develop the desired Digital Earth platform. This paper, by no means, covers everything for a Digital Earth platform, it aims to trigger research discussions and to have a good view about a starting point.     

Learning from CDM SD tool experience for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool’s SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement’s SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are ‘real, measurable and long-term’. Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Research findings are relevant for developing the rulebook of modalities and procedures for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which introduces a new mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the CDM SD tool and recommendations for enhanced SD assessment are discussed in context of Article 6 cooperative approaches, and make a timely contribution to inform negotiations on the rulebook agreed by the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Robert W. Christopherson (ed.) Elemental Geosystems Gertjan Dijkink National Identity and Geopolitical Visions: Maps of Price and Pain David Farrell Krell Architecture: Ecstasies of Space, Time and the Human Body Victor L. Mote Siberia: Worlds Apart Richard Pillsbury No Foreign Food: The American Diet in Time and Place Grant R. Staff Changing Cape Town: Urban Dynamics, Policy, and Planning During the Political Transition in South Africa David Briggs, Peter Smithson, Kenneth Addison, and Ken Atkinson Fundamentals of the Physical Environment H.J. DeBlij and Peter O. Miller Physical Geography of the Global Environment Chris Park The Environment: Principles and Applications Alan Strahler and Arthur Strahler Introducing Physical Geography     

美丽中国与联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)结合的黑河流域水资源承载力评价

水资源是制约干旱、半干旱区社会经济发展的关键因素,结合联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）指标和美丽中国评价指标,以水资源承载力为核心,从水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统、生态环境系统、协调系统5个方面构建指标体系,基于熵权法确定权重,评价2001-2017年黑河流域各县区水资源承载力及时空分布。结果表明：（1）当前水资源利用效率水平下,2010年以来黑河流域大多数县区GDP均超过最大承载能力,而人口则在2010年以前已超载。（2）从水资源承载综合评价结果来看,2001-2015年随着生态输水工程的进一步实施,水资源承载力有所好转,但中下游波动较大,水资源形势依然十分严峻。（3）控制不断扩展的绿洲面积,减少高耗水农作物种植面积,实施合理用水总量控制和定额管理措施,是减缓水资源压力的重要措施。     

Framing the application of adaptation pathways for rural livelihoods and global change in eastern Indonesian islands

In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.     

A Sustainable Development Goal for the Ocean and Coasts: Global ocean challenges benefit from regional initiatives supporting globally coordinated solutions

The ocean regulates the global climate, provides humans with natural resources such as food, materials, important substances, and energy, and is essential for international trade and recreational and cultural activities. Together with human development and economic growth, free access to, and availability of, ocean resources and services have exerted strong pressure on marine systems, ranging from overfishing, increasing resource extraction, and alteration of coastal zones to various types of thoughtless pollution. International cooperation and effective governance are required to protect the marine environment and promote the sustainable use of marine resources in such a way that due account can be taken of the environmental values of current generations and the needs of future generations. The high seas deserve particular attention since they suffer from a number of regulatory shortcomings due to the basic structures set out under international law. Against this backdrop, developing and agreeing on a focussed Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) specifically for the Ocean and Coasts could prove to be an essential element to provide guidance and a framework for regional implementation agreements.     

Aligning climate and sustainable development finance through an SDG lens. The role of development assistance in implementing the Paris Agreement

Climate change and development are strongly interconnected. An efficient use of financial resources would, thus require alignment between climate finance and development priorities, as set out in the context of both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we investigate to what extent climate-related official development assistance (ODA) before and after the Paris Agreement adoption supports the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, we assess to what extent donors align this finance with recipient countries’ climate-related priorities as spelled out in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First, we find that climate-relevant ODA contributes to multiple SDGs, above all SDG 7 (energy) and SDG 11 (cities). Second, we find that there is substantial alignment between donors’ and recipients’ SDG priorities, but that this alignment has not improved in recent years, since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement. Third, we find that albeit climate-finance continues to be allocated more to climate-change mitigation than to adaptation, the difference became smaller in recent years. This reduced the misalignment with recipient countries’ NDC climate activities, which focus more on adaptation than mitigation. Overall, we identify coherence, gaps and opportunities for further alignment of climate and development actions, and related finance. Such an alignment is essential to increase the likelihood of implementation of the two international agreements and to ensure that action is guided by recipient countries’ needs.