应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

RCEP自贸区的建立及其成员国间贸易格局演化

RCEP自贸区是目前全球体量最大的自由贸易区,是中国推动多边贸易体制发展、引领包容性全球化的重要平台和载体。推动RCEP自贸区建设对中国对外贸易格局优化、形成国内国际双循环的新发展格局具有重要意义。本文梳理RCEP自贸区建立过程,解析RCEP成员国间贸易格局演变态势,以期为中国引领RCEP自贸区发展提供支撑。研究认为：①RCEP自贸区的建立可划分为构思、谈判和建设三个阶段,东盟发挥了核心引领作用,但中国的作用逐步增强;②2001—2019年,RCEP成员国间的贸易联系快速提升,总体经历了快速增长、平稳发展、波动上升三个时期,RCEP在世界贸易格局中的地位不断上升;③2001年以来,RCEP贸易网络由以日本为核心的单核结构逐渐转变为以中国、日本为核心的双核结构,再转变为以中国为核心的单核结构;④RCEP成员国间的贸易关系演化呈多样化特征,综合贸易规模和贸易集中度,可将各国演化模式划分为6类。其中,中国、越南、澳大利亚等国均属于快速增长型,在RCEP自贸区中的贸易地位明显上升;文莱、日本、新加坡等国家的贸易地位则下降比较明显。     

滑坡次生灾害损失评估方法研究

针对目前滑坡灾害破坏损失评估研究还没有涉及滑坡次生灾害破坏损失评估方面的研究,提出并建立了滑坡次生灾害破坏损失的评估模型与方法。应用故障树分析法（FTA）和事件树分析法（ETA）相结合的因果图方法对滑坡次生灾害作可靠性分析,由此对滑坡次生灾害损失进行了预测及评估。     

WTO与FTA发展下的日本贸易政策调整

在WTO与FTA的影响下日本进入新的贸易发展阶段,日本贸易政策也做出了相应调整,其多边部分主要包括日本与GATT/WTO及其他国际组织的相互作用关系;区域部分主要是日本的FTA战略与战略实施进程。在此研究的基础上,从中国政策制定角度给出了政策建议。     

长输油气管道裂纹缺陷事故树模型的建立

分析了引起长输油气管道裂纹缺陷的原因(腐蚀疲劳、应力腐蚀破裂、氢脆、机械疲劳断裂)及其特征.应用事故树理论建立了长输油气管道发生裂纹缺陷的事故树模型,给出了事故发生概率的计算方法.根据俄罗斯长输油气管道的故障资料计算出在长期高压条件下运输聚乙烯时,发生长输油气管道裂纹缺陷的概率,计算结果与统计概率基本相同.     

Evaluation of cell lysis procedures and use of a micro fluidic system for an automated DNA-based cell identification in interplanetary missions

A Modular Assay System for Solar System Exploration (MASSE) is being developed to include sample handling, pre-treatment, separation and analysis of biological target compounds by both DNA and protein microarrays. To better design sensitive and accurate initial upstream sample handling of the MASSE instrument, experiments investigating the sensitivity and potential extraction bias of commercially available DNA extraction kits between classes of environmentally relevant prokaryotes such as gram-negative bacteria (Escherichia coli), gram-positive bacteria (Bacillus megatarium), and Archaea (Haloarcula marismortui) were performed. For extractions of both planktonic cultures and spiked Mars simulated regolith, FTA^® paper demonstrated the highest sensitivity, with detection as low as 1×10¹ cells and 3.3×10² cells, respectively. In addition to the highest sensitivity, custom modified application of FTA^® paper extraction protocol is the simplest in terms of incorporation into MASSE and displayed little bias in sensitivity with respect to prokaryotic cell type. The implementation of FTA paper for environmental microbiology investigations appears to be a viable and effective option potentially negating the need for other pre-concentration steps such as filtration and negating concerns regarding extraction efficiency of cells. In addition to investigations on useful technology for upstream sample handling in MASSE, we have also evaluated the potential for μTAS to be employed in the MASSE instrument by employing proprietary lab-on-a-chip development technology to investigate the potential for microfluidic cell lysis of different prokaryotic cells employing both chemical and biological lysis agents. Real-time bright-field microscopy and quantitative PMT detection indicated that that gram positive, gram negative and archaeal cells were effectively lyzed in a few seconds using the microfluidic chip protocol developed. This included employing a lysis buffer with components including lysozyme, Protease, Proteinase K, Tween-20 and TritonX-100. The effectiveness of antibiotics and other chemical lysis agents were also screened and demonstrated partial effectiveness on all three cell types. This work demonstrates a step wise approach to evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of commercial macro-scale technology and state-of-the-art developmental microfluidic technology under consideration for incorporation into the remotely operated MASSE instrument currently under development at the Carnegie Institution of Washington.     

复合式土压平衡盾构刀盘失效风险分析

通过对复合式土压平衡盾构刀盘失效的事故种类及原因的分析与总结,应用故障树分析（FTA）方法对刀盘失效风险进行了研究,建立了刀盘面板、刀具和其他刀盘体系的故障树系统模型。通过定性与定量分析,讨论了各项风险事故的潜在失效模式和影响因素。结合具体工程进行了应用,并提出了针对性的控制措施。研究有助于复合式土压平衡盾构刀盘的设计、施工的决策与控制。