新兴边缘学科——GPS气象学

阐述了GPS气象学的基本原理和GPS气象学的广阔应用领域，并介绍了GPS气象学的分类。     

基于MIROC/WRF嵌套模式的中国气候降尺度模拟

开展了基于嵌套的全球模式MIROC和区域气候模式WRF的动力降尺度模拟试验,检验该模式对中国气候的模拟性能,得到以下结论:全球气候模式MIROC和WRF都能较好地模拟出中国年平均地表气温(下文简称气温)分布。WRF模式对气温场的描述更为细致,模拟出了四川盆地高温和中国最北方区域的低温。两个模式总体上对南方降水模拟好于北方地区,东部地区好于西部地区。MIROC模式模拟的年平均和各季节降水与观测的 空间相关系数在0.79～0.83之间,表明它对降水的模拟较好。WRF模式模拟的降水空间分布好于MIROC模式。MIROC模式在青藏高原东南侧存在虚假降水中心,WRF能有效改进该地区降水的模拟。两个模式对年平均气温和降水年际变率的模拟能力均较差,WRF模式相对MIROC模式有一定改进。     

近百年中国、北半球和南半球气温内在结构比较(Ⅱ)

气温序列的变化不仅包含月、季、年、百年等不同的时间尺度,而且具有一定的局域性,全球、南半球、北半球和中国的气温变化各不相同．文中利用子波变换极大值线表征的突变点来构造一维映射动力系统的基本原理,研究中国、北半球和南半球气温的异同,从而映证了气候变化的局域性     

露天转井工采场及其覆岩采动响应特征研究

以云南磷化集团有限公司晋宁磷矿为依托背景,借助数字照相量测技术,通过相似材料模拟试验,对20与50两种矿体倾角赋存下,露转井工后,井下采场及其上覆岩层的位移与应力响应特征及动态演化过程进行了系统研究。结果表明：（1）地下采场围岩及覆岩的变形演化过程可划分为局部小范围微动、线性持续增大以及整体非线性剧烈垮塌3个阶段;（2）矿体倾角由20增至50后,边坡与地下采场围岩及覆岩的变形整体趋缓,采动影响范围小幅度缩减,沉降曲线则由非对称槽型变为碗型;（3）采场矿柱回收过程中,地下采场围岩及覆岩发生突发性失稳,呈现出明显的多米诺骨牌效应。相关研究结论可为矿山露天转地下开采后地压管理与边坡维护提供一定的理论参考。     

高烈度地震区岩土体边坡崩塌动力学特性研究

"5·12"汶川特大地震引发的次生山地灾害中以山体崩塌数量最多.本文在对国道213线都江堰至映秀段以及水磨支线公路边坡地震崩塌调查研究的基础上,分析总结了岩土体边坡的崩塌成灾模式、崩塌作用机理以及崩塌自组织临界(SOC)动力学特性.调查范围包括Ⅸ～Ⅺ度地震区,工点105个.对崩塌体方量、崩塌深度进行统计分析后发现,在Ⅸ度区崩塌体方量和崩塌深度都符合负幂律分布,呈现出明显的自组织临界动力学特性;而Ⅹ、Ⅺ度地震区不呈现该崩塌特性,其崩塌动力学性质受地震的强扰作用控制.     

Local And Global Diffusion Along Resonant Lines in Discrete Quasi-integrable Dynamical Systems

We detect and measure diffusion along resonances in a quasi-integrable symplectic map for different values of the perturbation parameter. As in a previously studied Hamiltonian case (Lega et al., 2003) results agree with the prediction of the Nekhoroshev theorem. Moreover, for values of the perturbation parameter slightly below the critical value of the transition between Nekhoroshev and Chirikov regime we have also found a diffusion of some orbits along macroscopic portions of the phase space. Such a diffusion follows in a spectacular way the peculiar structure of resonant lines.     

Hilda asteroids among Jupiter family comets

Hilda asteroids and comets are similar from the compositional point of view. The D-taxonomic class prevailing among Hildas has all the characteristics found in cometary spectra. Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) coming from the trans-neptunian region are under the gravitational control of Jupiter, making them a dynamically unstable population with a mean dynamical lifetime of 10⁴ to ¹⁰⁵ years. In contrast, Hilda asteroids residing in the 3:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter are a very stable population. But once they escape from the resonance, they are dynamically controlled by Jupiter, and in this sense their behavior resembles that of JFC. We performed a numerical simulation to analyze the dynamical evolution that Hildas follow after escaping from the resonance, and their contribution to the JFC population. We found that 8% of the particles leaving the resonance end up impacting Jupiter. 98.7% of the escaped Hildas live at least 1000 years as a JFC, with a mean lifetime of 1.4×¹⁰⁶ years. In particular, escaped Hildas stay mainly in the region of perihelion distances greater than 2.5 AU. On the other hand, the number of escaped Hildas reaching the inner Solar System (q<2.5 AU) is negligible. So, there are almost no Hilda asteroids among the NEO population. We also analyzed the possibility that the Shoemaker-Levy 9 were an escaped Hilda asteroid. In this case, it would be possible to give stronger constraints to its pre-capture orbital elements.     

Assimilation of thermal emission spectrometer atmospheric data during the Mars Global Surveyor aerobraking period

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has produced an extensive atmospheric data set, beginning during aerobraking and continuing throughout the extended scientific mapping phase. Temperature profiles for the atmosphere below about 40 km, surface temperatures and total dust and water ice opacities, can be retrieved from infrared spectra in nadir viewing mode. This paper describes assimilation of nadir retrievals from the spacecraft aerobraking period, L_S=190°–260°, northern hemisphere autumn to winter, into a Mars general circulation model. The assimilation scheme is able to combine information from temperature and dust optical depth retrievals, making use of a model forecast containing information from the assimilation of earlier observations, to obtain a global, time-dependent analysis. Given sufficient temperature retrievals, the assimilation procedure indicates errors in the a priori dust distribution assumptions even when lacking dust observations; in this case there are relatively cold regions above the poles compared to a model which assumes a horizontally-uniform dust distribution. One major reason for using assimilation techniques is in order to investigate the transient wave behavior on Mars. Whilst the data from the 2-h spacecraft mapping orbit phase is much more suitable for assimilation, even the longer (45–24 h) period aerobraking orbit data contain useful information about the three-dimensional synoptic-scale martian circulation which the assimilation procedure can reconstruct in a consistent way. Assimilations from the period of the Noachis regional dust storm demonstrate that the combined assimilation of temperature and dust retrievals has a beneficial impact on the atmospheric analysis.     

Cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere due to doubling of CO2

A new parameterization of infrared radiative transfer in the 15-m CO₂ band has been incorporated into the Spectral mesosphere/lower thermosphere model (SMLTM). The parameterization is applicable to calculations of heating rates above approximately 15 km for arbitrary vertical profiles of the CO₂ concentration corresponding to the surface mixing ratio in the range 150–720 ppm. The sensitivity of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to doubling of CO₂ has been studied. The thermal response in the MLT is mostly negative (cooling) and much stronger than in the lower atmosphere. An average cooling at the stratopause is about 14 K. It gradually decreases to approximately 8 K in the upper mesosphere and again increases to about 40–50 K in the thermosphere. The cooling and associated thermal shrinking result in a substantial density reduction in the MLT that reaches 40–45% in the thermosphere. Various radiative, chemical, and dynamical feedbacks potentially important for the thermal response in the MLT are discussed. It is noted that the results of simulations are strikingly similar to observations of long-term trends in the MLT. This suggests that during the last 3–4 decades the thermal structure in the real upper atmosphere has undergone substantial changes driven by forcing comparable with that due to doubling of CO₂.     

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.